I Hope the Super Bowl Isn’t Close

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February 7, 2016
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That way, people will still be talking about the Rubiobot glitch on Monday.

The reason New Hampshire polls tend to be wrong is:

Polls that stop days before the primary miss important shifts in voter preference that occur right up until Election Day.

Regular PoliPundit Readers Will Recall…

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February 7, 2016
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…that former UK Labor Party leader Ed Milliband has the “former” in that title in part because his OS ended up in an infinite loop, like that of the Rubiobot.

I’m Feeling Sorry for… Jeb Bush??

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February 7, 2016
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Bush’s love for amnesty may have cost him the presidency (like so. many. others) , but he’s still gotta wonder how he’s losing to a guy like Trump: It must be more than a decade ago when I got a glimpse of the man often referred to as “George W. Bush’s smarter, younger brother.”...

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Quote of the Day

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February 6, 2016
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Politico, on the Rubiobot glitch:

Marco Rubio knew exactly what he was doing on Saturday night.

Marco Rubio knew exactly what he was doing on Saturday night.

Marco Rubio knew exactly what he was doing on Saturday night.

Bonus Video of the Day

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February 6, 2016
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Marco Rubio gets booed by the debate crowd.

Quote of the Day

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February 6, 2016
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A Bernie Sanders voter, on why he won’t vote for Hillary if Bernie loses:

“She’s establishment. Most of the guys I work with think she’s a criminal.”

Video of the Day

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February 6, 2016
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When was the last time you heard a major-party presidential candidate talk like this?

Why You Can’t Trust Marco Rubio

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February 6, 2016
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The invaluable Mickey Kaus explains:

Rubio has now effectively wormed his way into a position where championing mass immigration and amnesty would involve breaking what seems to be an explicit policy pledge. But anyone who has followed Rubio knows that’s exactly what he’ll do. a) He’s done it before, having opposed amnesty when seeking his Senate seat only to become its front man on arriving in Washington; b) He dissembled when necessary to push the Gang of 8 bill, why not dissemble now? c) The GOP establishment thinks that’s exaclty what he’ll do; d) His retreat from the Gang of 8 has been grudging and weaselly, always giving as little ground as he thinks he can get away with until he discovers he has to give a little more; e) He still hasn’t repudiated the bill, let alone apologized for it; and most important, f) actually achieving an Enforcement First solution would mean standing up to the Democrats, who will demand quick legalization, and the bulk of the GOP Congressional caucus, who will be happy to settle for a fig-leaf of enforcement they can try to sell their voters (not unlike the fig leaf added to the Gang of 8 by the for-show-only Corker-Hoeven “double the border patrol” amendment). The current flash mob of GOP representatives streaming into Rubio’s camp suggests they recognize him as someone who won’t make their lives difficult — when that’s exactly what is required.

Rubio’s not going to drive Jeff Sessions from the capital. But you can count on the combination of President Rubio and Speaker Ryan to quickly pass an amnesty bill that (like the Gang of 8) contains only the most chimerical guarantees of new enforcement measures.

Germany to Segregate Gay Refugees

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February 5, 2016
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Ad of the Day

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February 5, 2016
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Cruz’s Path to Victory

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February 5, 2016
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After New Hampshire (a state that voted for John “Amnesty” McCain twice!), it’s all upside:

First, he isn’t Huckabee or Santorum. They were true insurgents, desperately underfunded candidates who staked everything on Iowa and then lacked a plan to follow through. Cruz has the money and the organization that they lacked, and notwithstanding his “Duck Dynasty” endorsement and Senate enemies, he has a network of elite support that can carry him through a long campaign.

Second, the calendar promises him momentum. South Carolina is a good state for him, and then the large so-called S.E.C. primary looms on March 1, rich in evangelical votes. The S.E.C. states aren’t winner take all, so Cruz can’t build an insurmountable delegate lead even if he runs the table. But on the morning of March 2, the media may start covering him as if he’s the front-runner.

Don’t Believe The New Hampshire Polls

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February 5, 2016
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A reminder:

On Jan. 3, 2008 – the day of the Iowa caucuses – Hillary Clinton led Barack Obama by 7 points in the RealClearPolitics average of New Hampshire polls. And then Obama won Iowa.

Despite just four days separating Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama quickly surged in the polls, opening up an 8.3-point lead in the final RCP average.

But something happened on the way to an Obama sweep of the first two states: Clinton stormed from behind in the race’s final 24 hours, leading pollsters – including the industry’s professional organization, the American Association for Public Opinion Research – to conduct thorough reviews of industry practices.

Their most basic conclusion: Polls that stop days before the primary miss important shifts in voter preference that occur right up until Election Day.