The Filibuster Votes
Harry Reid is trying to shoot down John Kerry’s pathetic call for a filibuster:
“No one can complain on this matter that there hasn’t been sufficient time to talk about Judge Alito, pro and con,” Mr. Reid said on the Senate floor. “I hope that this matter will be resolved without too much more talking.”
Why is the normally combative Reid so eager to avoid a filibuster fight? Because the roll call vote on cloture would demonstrate how impotent Senate Democrats really are.
Consider: 55 Republicans are all virtually certain to vote against a filibuster (with the unlikely exception of Lincoln Chafee (R-RI).) Add to that the seven Democrats in the Gang of 14, who appear miraculously to be keeping their promise. Then add non-Gang Democrats, such as Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), and Tim Johnson (D-SD), who’ve spoken out against a filibuster. When you add it up, there are at least 63 senators who’re certain to oppose a filibuster.
Thus there are no more than 37 votes for a filibuster, and perhaps even fewer than 30.
Imagine how weak the Democrats, and especially Reid, would look if they could publicly muster no more than 35 votes for a filibuster. Far better for them to go directly to a roll call where they have a good chance of holding Alito to less than 60 votes. That’s why Reid desperately wants to avoid a filibuster fight.
UPDATE: Kent Conrad (D-ND) says he’s leaning towards voting for Alito. If Chafee and Conrad vote for cloture, Democrats would be able to muster no more than 35 votes for a filibuster.
UPDATE 2: Add Daniel Akaka (D-HI) and Byron Dorgan (D-ND) to the list of filibuster opponents. 33 votes left.
UPDATE 3: And Joe Biden (D-DE) too. Down to 32.
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