How 2006 Impacts 2008
John McIntyre takes a look at how 2006 will lay a foundation for the 2008 election, and how a loss for Republicans in 2006 might actually make things easier for Republicans in 2008.
It’s likely some individual state results in 2006 will have an impact on laying out the electoral battlefield in 2008, but the biggest impact will be whether or not the Democrats can recapture the House. While it may not be the best thing for the Bush administration, a Democratic takeover of the House would likely be a huge assist to the overall Republican campaign in 2008. It would deprive Democrats of the very powerful campaign message that after eight years of near total GOP control it was time for a change. It would also put Speaker Pelosi and committee Chairmen like Rangel, Waxman and Conyers front and center for public view. More than anything else in 2006, a Democratic take over of the House would change the dynamic of the 2008 race and, ironically, would probably be good news for Republicans.
Read the whole thing to see how he reaches this conclusion. I agree that unleashing people like Pelosi, Rangel and Waxman on the public as agenda-setting leaders could make those voting for President in 2008 want to maintain the check and balance of a Republican President, and might have the same effect on some Senate races. I think that if the Democrats did retake the House this year, though, that it would be hard for Republicans to take it back in 2008, due to the very local nature of most House races and the huge advantages incumbents have, even if voters did opt for a GOP President and Senate 2008.
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