Historical Data
The Michigan Republican party has posted historical election analysis that helps put things in perspective:
Republicans lost 29 in the House and six in the Senate. By way of comparison, the President’s party has lost…
In all 6th year midterms, an average of 29 House seats and 3 Senate seats
In all 6th year midterms since WWII, an average of 31 House and 6 Senate seats
In all wartime midterms since 1860, an average of 32 House and 5 Senate seats
Races Were Extraordinarily Close Because of GOP Ground Game
22 races were decided by two percentage points or fewer. Of those, Republicans won 12 and lost 9, which includes two GOP challengers in Georgia. By comparison, just seven races in both 2002 and 2004 were settled by two points or fewer.
A total of 19 races were decided by fewer than 5,000 votes. Combined, all 19 were decided by 49,445 votes. Republicans won 13 and lost 6.
A total of 15 races were decided by fewer than 4,000 votes; combined, their
margins are just 31,623 votes. Republicans won 11 and lost 4.A total of 9 races were decided by fewer than 3,000 votes; combined, their
margins are just 10,454 votes. Republicans won 6 and lost 4.A total of 8 races were decided by fewer than 2,000 votes; combined, their
margins are just 7,448 votes. Republicans won 4 and lost 4, including the two Georgia GOP challengers.There are 5 races decided by fewer than 1,000 votes. Their combined margin of 2,848 yielded 3 wins for Republicans and 2 losses, including one Georgia GOP challengers.
There are 35 contests where the winner received 51% or less.
A Small Shift In Votes Would Have Made A Different Outcome
A shift of 78,663 votes would have given Republicans control of the House.
A shift of 2,847 votes in Montana, or 7,231 votes in Virginia, or 45,811 votes in Missouri would have given a Republicans control of the Senate.
I wonder if there is any analysis on what “should occur” in 2008 based on historical trends?
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