UPDATE: The Ohio exit polls are wrong! According to the 2008 exit polls, 11 percent of voters were black. In 2012, that’s supposed to be 15 percent? If you believe that, I have some embassy security to sell you. The exit polls are wrong. Ohio is very close, with a tiny Romney lean.
According to the latest census, Ohio is 83.6% white and 12.4% black, quite close to the 2008 exit poll numbers.
UPDATE: According to all the TV talking heads, white men are so over. Women and minorities will take over the world!
They’re forgetting a couple of things:
1. As white people slowly become a minority, they’ll vote as a bloc, like other minorities. We’re already seeing that this election; even if Romney loses the election, he’ll win a larger share of white votes than Reagan did.
2. Demographic changes don’t continue indefinitely. As Michael Barone has noted, the Hispanic vote seems to be quite close to its eventual peak.
The only way the conservative/Republican coalition gets broken is if more and more Americans start thinking like Europeans, if they start believing that free condoms are more important than freedom. That is entirely possible. In fact, California has already fallen prey to that trend, and it is the greatest threat facing America today.
UPDATE: On the other hand, Mourdock is running just 4 points behind Mike Pence, who’s a shoo-in for governor. Maybe the news here is Romney’s strength in Indiana, not Mourdock’s weakness… We’ll see.
Currently, Richard Mourdock is running 11 points behind Mitt Romney.