How Romney can win

November 6, 2012
By

In 2008, Obama won by 7 points. The electorate was D+7. Obama’s margin among Independents was… what else? 7.

Romney’s strategy is simple:

  1. Cut into that D+7 advantage.

    As you can see from actual votes cast in Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, and Pasco, Republicans have cut into Democrats’ partisan advantage by about 5 percent. That should shave about 5 points off Obama’s margin.

  2. Let Independents do the rest.

    If Romney merely runs even with Independents, he’ll knock 2-3 points off Obama’s overall 2008 margin, leaving the candidates neck-and-neck overall.

    But Romney isn’t just tied among Independents. He’s leading, by an average of 9.6 points in the polls. Depending on his lead among Independents, he could eke out a 1-3-point margin of victory among all voters, enough to carry him over the threshold in key swing states, including at least one of Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Actual vote counts, and poll internals confirm all this. The only reason the poll top lines aren’t reflecting it is that they still haven’t caught on to the fact that Romney’s already changed the party ID of the electorate in his favor by 5 points.

But it’s close, and we’ll see how it turns out.

24 Responses to How Romney can win

  1. MortimerSnerd on November 6, 2012 at 1:25 pm

    Anybody see anything in the early voting patters today that confirms POlipundit’s assessment?

    The I vote, as I understand it, shifted back considerably to Obama during sandy…do we know how much shifted back since?

    I still don’t get how or why Americans would cast a secret ballot for 4 four years….but maybe today marks the end of the American empire (which as a non-citizen who believes in American exceptionalism, I would greatly regret).

  2. Frank Lee on November 6, 2012 at 1:35 pm

    The only reason the poll top lines aren’t reflecting it is that they still haven’t caught on to the fact that Romney’s already changed the party ID of the electorate in his favor by 5 points.

    Oh, they caught on to that fact alright.

    Yeah, they caught on to that fact and then quickly tried to bury it.

    CNN’s closing polls sampled dimwits by an 11 pt. advantage! Who the hell were they trying to fool?

    Themselves, apparently.

  3. Bonaparte on November 6, 2012 at 1:58 pm

    I’m scared about Virginia :-/

    • PoliPundit on November 6, 2012 at 2:00 pm

      The candidates seem to think it’s Romney’s.

    • Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on November 6, 2012 at 2:09 pm

      My understanding is that the Obama campaign is running scared in all 57 states :)

      Hey, when do we tune in to view some results?

      • Francis Xavier on November 6, 2012 at 2:15 pm

        LOL! Yes, and libs appear to be running scared with those “bitter clingers” too.

        The left’s voter-fraud efforts seem off the chart in PA.

        Why are they so worried about PA? S.Cutter (and other daft 0bama drones) keep telling us PA is “in the bag”. If so, then why all the voter fraud and marxist freakouts at polling stations? Panic much?

    • Anonymous Un-Paultard on November 6, 2012 at 3:07 pm

      Fox just had some early results and it is Romney 51-48 Virginia

      • Just Sayin' on November 6, 2012 at 3:25 pm

        That’s good for this early. It may keep improving for Romney still.

  4. Francis Xavier on November 6, 2012 at 2:12 pm

    And now for something completely different:

    Political Cartoon of the Day

  5. MortimerSnerd on November 6, 2012 at 2:13 pm

    Romney seems to be doing well in reports from places like Colorado – my understand is that people who vote after work will tend to favour Republicans quite heavily in cmoparison to earlier in the day voting (my recollection is from exit polls when Kerry beat Bush). Is that correct?

  6. Francis Xavier on November 6, 2012 at 2:33 pm

    Too funny!

    The Chris Matthews FREAKOUT Session begins early!

    Leftist non-logic according to MSNBC’s ‘Tingles the clown’:
    “..if you voted, then you’re a hater and if you didn’t vote, then you’re an idiot”

    What a douche.

  7. Dismantle ObamaCare on November 6, 2012 at 2:42 pm

    Exits don’t look good for us

    • Francis Xavier on November 6, 2012 at 2:44 pm

      They never do.

      Kerry won Florida, remember?

      Oh wait, no he didn’t.

  8. Francis Xavier on November 6, 2012 at 3:00 pm

    What Robert Costa is hearing in early turnout numbers:

    What I’m Hearing Good stuff so far.

    As Republicans get off work and go vote, better data and more favorable results always show.
    It’s the same thing every POTUS election cycle.

  9. Bonaparte on November 6, 2012 at 3:04 pm

    Maybe but why does drudge ( who’s been huge for mittens since 2007) make it look so bleak!?!?

    • fldore on November 6, 2012 at 3:10 pm

      Are you surprised though? Exit polls skew Liberal and its a close race.

    • Just Sayin' on November 6, 2012 at 3:24 pm

      Drudge already moved exit poll data on Ohio from ‘O’ to ‘tossup’. Exit polls are junk
      The trend is later results always improve GOP results. Republicans work and vote afterward.

      Go watch a movie and come back in a couple hours.

  10. Setnaffa on November 6, 2012 at 3:08 pm

    Bad news sells better…

  11. Bonaparte on November 6, 2012 at 3:25 pm

    I have literally 10k bet on mittens and stand to win as much as 20k

    Really need him to win va oh fl co to win big money

    • Just Sayin' on November 6, 2012 at 3:30 pm

      Big money, no whammies!

    • Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on November 6, 2012 at 3:35 pm

      Wish you joy of your wager :)

  12. Mildred Smith on November 6, 2012 at 8:52 pm

    That’ll happen.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *