Actual voting numbers!

November 6, 2012
By

From Pasco County, Florida, where the 3-point McCain margin in 2008 is now an R+8 voting margin, a gain of 5 points. Add whatever swing may have occurred with unaffiliated voters over the last four years, extrapolate to the rest of the country, and it looks like Obama’s 7-point national margin from 4 years ago will be wiped out. But it’s going to be a very close election. No sign of any landslides…

25 Responses to Actual voting numbers!

  1. Dismantle ObamaCare on November 6, 2012 at 10:14 am

    A gain of five points is nationally is close to 51%.

    I think Mitt is going to pull it out. I get the sense Republicans are voting like their lives depend on it.

    • PoliPundit on November 6, 2012 at 10:15 am

      5-point gain in the margin, not the R number.

      e.g. If D lost 2.5 and R added 2.5, that would be a 5-point margin gain for the Rs.

      • Dismantle ObamaCare on November 6, 2012 at 10:35 am

        That still implies Obama has the edge? I’m confused

        • PoliPundit on November 6, 2012 at 10:41 am

          Independents – They elected Obama; they can throw him out. I’m betting they will.

          • Robert on November 6, 2012 at 11:22 am

            Don’t forget the overall effect that a depressed turnout from core Dem constituencies will tip the map overall. 51% nationally is in line with what I’ve been thinking, figure another 2% for 3rd party candidates and Obama tops out at 47% – a non-starter for any President.

  2. Joe on November 6, 2012 at 10:29 am

    We know the shift is going to be greater than the electoral composition shift, since Romney will do better than McCain among independents (and maybe a little bit better among Republicans and Democrats).

    RCP only has a 4.3% shift in Florida. It looks like in reality we’re looking at >7%. So RCP is wrong. Interesting…

  3. David on November 6, 2012 at 10:32 am

    The data from your pasco link shows, so far:

    43.5% of total votes is R
    35.0% of total votes is D
    21.5% of total votes is other

    Seeing as the “other” votes, assuming independents, are breaking at least 2 to 1 for Romney, it would appear that this is a very good indicator of the next President being President Romney.

  4. Trent Telenko on November 6, 2012 at 11:03 am

    I advise folks here to go out and watch a movie tonight, then check the results when you get home.

    It will be better for your sanity.

    • Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on November 6, 2012 at 11:08 am

      Second the motion! :)

      • Robert on November 6, 2012 at 11:24 am

        Personally I plan to get drunk and watch Tingles have an emotional breakdown on MSNBC. I’ve got a new game I want to try out, every time he makes a reference to racism, I drink.

        • WhiteOut on November 6, 2012 at 12:21 pm

          You’ll be blacked-out sloppy by 6:30 EST.

        • Francis Xavier on November 6, 2012 at 2:41 pm

          Hey Robert, does the following MSNBC breakdown count for your drinking game?

          Tingles wants you to start drinking early!

        • Goonions on November 6, 2012 at 3:00 pm

          You mean Tinkles. His leg will feel the warmth from his “tinking” on himself after it is called for Romney.

  5. Jerome says Obama wins! on November 6, 2012 at 11:10 am
  6. ken_phd on November 6, 2012 at 11:18 am

    Jerome:

    “VA, OH, PA, IA, CO, NV stay blue” Until the polls close. Then your head explodes

  7. oh boy... on November 6, 2012 at 11:41 am

    I’ve got a spreadsheet on these numbers and right now it’s

    Splitting indies
    54.2 – 45.8
    With 8% indie lead
    55.0 – 44.0

    LOOKING GOOD, will keep updating here.

  8. oh boy... on November 6, 2012 at 1:22 pm

    above percentages the same

    total votes 183,187 turnout so far 189,764 61.5%
    we want to see something exceeding 08 which had 217,115 votes and 73.74% turnout
    polls close at 7 pm est

  9. oh boy... on November 6, 2012 at 1:42 pm

    update in Hillsborough County, Fla (Obama 53, Mccain 46)

    Total votes as of 4:30 pm : 328,694
    Total 2008: 513,312

  10. oh boy... on November 6, 2012 at 2:29 pm

    pasco update

    Splitting indies
    54.15 – 45.95
    With 8% Romney indie advantage
    55.04 – 44.96

    198,231 votes total, 64% turnout as 5 pm est

  11. oh boy... on November 6, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    pasco update

    approx same splits

    208,556 votes total, 67% turnout as 6 pm est

    • Just Sayin' on November 6, 2012 at 3:29 pm

      The 1hr timing of your trending numbers (plus more people voting after they get off of work) says that the total should easily exceed 2008’s total vote of 217K

  12. oh boy... on November 6, 2012 at 3:33 pm

    Forget about those Hillsborough County numbers, they are not live updating so they will go up.

    Kind of a weird county, in 2004 bush with 54, 2008 obama 53

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