Are polls failing to measure voter intensity?

November 6, 2012

First, from the Politico Battleground poll, which shows the race tied 47-47:

The potentially more important number is a combination nationally of those who have already voted and those who call themselves “extremely likely” to vote. Romney leads this group by 3 percent, 51 percent to 48 percent.


Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who helps conduct the bipartisan poll, expects that many who say they are likely to vote will not wind up turning out. Among the 80 percent of those surveyed who he believes are most likely to actually vote, Romney leads by 3 points, 51 percent to 48 percent. Among the 70 percent he believes are most likely, Romney leads by 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent.

Second, maybe polls don’t measure everything:

When an election is close, everything depends on turnout. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have been demonstrating for three years that they are willing to get themselves to the polls to pull the lever for candidates who oppose Barack Obama. Polls famously cannot measure the intangible called intensity.

The president retains the loyalty of his ardent supporters. But only a blinkered partisan could fail to notice that the feverish enthusiasm of 2008 among Democrats — particularly among young voters and women — has flagged. Republicans, by contrast, are burning to fire Obama. They are also proud to support an articulate, experienced, and honorable man who they genuinely believe has what it takes to right a listing nation.

6 Responses to Are polls failing to measure voter intensity?

  1. Goonions on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 am

    That is kind of what I am thinking. We have every reason in the world to kick this guy out and what real reason do they have for keeping him in? Four more years of failure? I guess those on the left have a strange way of defining failure.

    I am pretty sure Romney will win but if he does not you can rest assured that after four more years of Obama I doubt this country will ever elect another Democrat. He will drag that party off the cliff straight into the abyss. We see what Pelosi did to the house and Harry Reid is not far behind. They are fast proving that they do not need to be in control. That is absolute idiocy unleashed in torrents.

  2. allie on November 6, 2012 at 8:11 am

    If I never have to hear Obama’s voice or see his face again that will be too soon. I simply cannot believe the absolute stupidity and willful ignorance on the part of Obama supporters? I have asked a few of them exactly what were Obama’s qualifications for running for office and not a single one will even offer an answer. They also do not have an answer when I ask them what kind of country they want for their children and grandchildren.

    The other day a woman told me Romney scares her and I asked her why? She couldn’t tell me. She did bring up that George Bush was an “alcoholic”. But Obama’s use of cocaine was okay I guess. This is the thinking of Obama supporters. Absolutely amazing and scary. And even worse these people are voting.

    • Drew on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 am

      Yes, the wilfull ignorance of the left is astounding. It’s amazing how blind, short-sighted, gullible and blatantly dishonest every single liberal has become. I’ve questioned many of them same as you have (and perhaps much more?) and it’s always the exact same response every time. The liberal being questioned will get this “deer in headlights” blank stare on their face and cannot / will not ever answer 1 single question about Obama that I put to them. Not one. Seriously, it’s 100% of the time where the liberal either (a.) has no answer whatsoever (b.) cannot explain their talking points in any detial or has ZERO facts (c.) or goes to their default angry answer of blaming all of Obama’s policy failures onto Bush.

      It’s pathetic and it’s creepy to see how they’ve become these brainless zombies for Obama.

      The left cannot think for themselves and it shows; it shows 100% of the time (no exceptions)

      God help our nation!

    • Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 am

      I live in CA. A lot of blue-staters here will pull the level for the Dems. They are not excited, but they are brainwashed. Their belief system says that Repubs and Christians want to rule them under a religious autocracy. No, really.
      Meanwhile….when you buy groceries at stores in San Jose it is illegal for the store to give you a free bag to carry your purchase.
      As we all know, in NYC you are not allowed to buy a Big Gulp. And don’t even get me started on light bulbs.
      Time passes and it becomes ever more apparent (eventually even to Californians) which group wants to rule every detail of your life and which group will live-and-let-live.

  3. Drew on November 6, 2012 at 8:41 am

    Poli, the polls are not measuring the Christian turnout machine, which has quietly but steadily built into a rather large grassroots army. It look like their grassroots effort could pad the margins for Romney/Ryan and the polls don’t appear to have captured any of it as far as I can see. It’ll be interesting to finally know how big their effort has become.

    • Nukedad on November 6, 2012 at 11:34 am

      I hope your right, Drew. I’m a Christian, and it troubles me how many Christian’s I’ve talked to to don’t want to vote, because they believe that God ordains the outcome of every election, so there is no point in voting. I try to tell them that they should view their vote as a stewardship that God has allowed them to have, and they should exercise it.