Tweet of the day

November 5, 2012
By

@Redistrict:

OH EARLY VOTE: In 2008, Kerry/Obama counties cast 985,384 early, Bush/McCain 567,803. In 2012, 945,009 in K/O counties, 649,499 in B/M.

Of course, that won’t erase Obama’s 2008 margin of 200K+, but it’s a good start. The rest is down to Election Day turnout, as well as for whom all those early voters voted.

Here’s the spreadsheet with all the numbers.

14 Responses to Tweet of the day

  1. Bonaparte on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 pm

    Darn those #s aren’t as favorable for RR as they were said to be by Rove etc

  2. Bonaparte on November 5, 2012 at 9:56 pm

    Poli which numbers are accurate – these or the ones for your earlier OH post?

  3. Gerry Owen on November 5, 2012 at 10:17 pm

    net -120,000 off Obama totals last time.

    R turnout last time on election day was + 200k.

    Romney campaign specifically was targeting the voters who tend not to show up that often, relying on the crawl over broken glass vote to show up election day.

    I don’t know, I am nervous- how many counties will Obama lose this time around? These are also straight vote totals by county, not broken down by party ID like the last round Poli posted- how many from each party voted in the respective counties?

    Still promising- however, this cuts the win margin to somewhere in the 20-25,000 range by my guess, barring a collapse by the Democrats tomorrow.

  4. Joe on November 5, 2012 at 10:58 pm

    If the individual counties each voted the same way (%-wise) that they did in 2008, then Romney eliminated 30,293 votes of the 206K vote margin from 2008 just based purely on turnout so far just from early voting. Extrapolating that to the full electorate if there is a 31% early vote gets him to 97.7K (1.75%).

    I don’t know if that really means anything or not because we don’t know the percentages in the individual counties. I think a 1.75% electoral composition shift in Ohio, when you take into account the shifts in party loyalty over the last four years (according to final Gallup polls), will lead to a 4.75% shift in the net margin. Obama won by 4.6% in 2008, so that would have Romney winning Ohio by 0.15% (about 8400 votes).

    I personally think Romney will do slightly better because I think Obama has a fading bump among independents from Hurricane Sandy that is biasing the final polls. So my prediction is that Romney wins Ohio by 1%. Basically, I’m saying that the Romney internal polls that were released are right on the money. So Romney will win the election with 285-315 EVs.

  5. bonaparte on November 6, 2012 at 12:07 am

    “Badly for Obama: The early voting in the Obama counties is down more than 298,000 versus 2009. It’s down more than 61,000 in the McCain counties. Subtract the Romney counties, and it’s a net drop of 235,000 in early voting in the Obama counties….”

    That was the earlier post. This new post seems less good for Mittycakes and Babyface.

    • Gerry Owen on November 6, 2012 at 4:47 am

      this is a total by county broken down by county vote results-
      the other was broken out by Patry ID.

      Same statistics (albeit these are final), sorted differently.

  6. oh boy... on November 6, 2012 at 12:07 am

    I look at the early vote as a barometer of the election day vote.

    Fact is Obama is off about 5% of 2008, and Romney is up about 15%.

    • Gerry Owen on November 6, 2012 at 5:29 am

      THAT, is a good way to look at it, and probably the most accurate angle.

  7. satted on November 6, 2012 at 4:16 am

    Update from Milan Michigan. We’ve lived here for 4 years… and have voted at the same location every election. Not once did we have to wait for more than a few minutes. Well the wife just got home, couldn’t vote because people were lined up to the street (the voting building is 400 yards off the street). She guesses a 2 hour wait. We will go later today; but the turnout is here is different than it ever has been. And of note, we live in a very conservative town.

    • Goonions on November 6, 2012 at 4:29 am

      That is encouraging to hear. Hard to see Michigan in play but sure would love to see Romney pull that one out. Maybe he will.

    • President Starkey of the Restored United States on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 am

      Get in line, make some new friends during the wait.

    • satted on November 6, 2012 at 9:13 am

      All voted… Hour and half wait in the middle of the day. Longest line I’ve ever seen here. People have lots to say today, lets hope its the right “stuff”.

  8. Gerry Owen on November 6, 2012 at 5:03 am

    Already freaking cheating in Philly!!
    http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot

    Why do we let them get away with this EVERY election?

    • President Starkey of the Restored United States on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 am

      Well we’re pussies for starters, have media that doesn’t care so long as it helps the their own side, and we’ve got a racist POS at the head of the DOJ. That’s just for starters.

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