Most innovative poll of the campaign

November 5, 2012
By

Goes to Suffolk, which released polls for bellwether areas of Ohio and New Hampshire today. Read the whole thing.

(via Jim Geraghty)

4 Responses to Most innovative poll of the campaign

  1. oh boy... on November 5, 2012 at 6:03 pm

    How about some good news.

    Here’s the latest absentee news from Cuyahoga county.
    R registered voters are making up 18% of the total vs 12% in 2008.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0As9lU8QOUCesdGhLWnVXaXk1MlN4N1N5RHN3Qk5PMUE

    • PoliPundit on November 5, 2012 at 6:09 pm

      I’m skeptical because:

      1. Rs are eating into Indies, not so much Ds, and
      2. Ohio doesn’t have registration by party. The “R” and “D” are based on the primary they last voted in. Wouldn’t surprise me if 1-2 percent of Cuyahoga voters voted in the R primary this year because there wasn’t a D primary.

  2. oh boy... on November 5, 2012 at 6:13 pm

    It’s only intended to give a signal of the electorate, not actual votes, etc. Absentee votes in the R Ohio counties are way up.

    Whey you combine this signal with the poor early vote showing in Cuyahoga, it is indeed good news.

    http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

  3. unclefred on November 5, 2012 at 7:50 pm

    If Milford NH is the predictor for the state, Obama loses NH. Period.

    Poli, the party think in Ohio doesn’t matter, if early voting is running behind the 2008 numbers in the counties that form Obama’s stronghold he is in trouble.

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