Proved: The swing state polls are wrong

November 5, 2012

Except for Rasmussen.

Huh? How can we prove that?

Here are the latest polls for Virginia:

1. The race is supposed to be as tied as it can be, with Obama holding a 0.3-point lead in the RCP average.
2. All the polls but Rasmussen show Obama tied or ahead.
3. Virginia has 13 electoral college votes, more than Wisconsin’s 10, Minnesota’s 10, Iowa’s 6, Colorado’s 9, and almost as many as Ohio’s 18.

Now if these polls were accurate, wouldn’t Romney and Obama be camped out in Virginia? 13 electoral college votes in a tied state!

And yet, if you look at the president’s schedule, for instance, you’d think he’d never heard of Virginia, even though it’s just a short drive from his house.

So the campaigns are saying, with all their internal polling, their precise measurement of early voting, and so on, that Virginia is not as close as, say, Wisconsin, Ohio, or Pennsylvania.

So does that mean Virginia leans Romney? Or does it mean it leans Obama?

Well, here’s a clue: The campaigns are spending all their time in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Pennsylvania, which have RCP averages of Obama + 2.9, Obama +4.2, Obama +3, and Obama +3.9. In other words, the campaigns believe these states could go either way, unlike Virginia.

So there you have it, right from the campaigns: The polls are systematically overstating Obama’s advantage in key states. And Rasmussen, all alone over there, is right.

Now call! And vote!

5 Responses to Proved: The swing state polls are wrong

  1. Setnaffa on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 am

    It’s going to be 40+ States going Red… Maybe 45…

  2. Setnaffa on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 am

    But don’t get cocky.

  3. Cornfed on November 5, 2012 at 9:57 am

    Not sure that proves it, but I get your point. I, too, think Romney takes VA, but i think it will be close enough to be nervous about.

    • Drew on November 5, 2012 at 10:30 am

      No it won’t. I’ve been saying this for a while.

      VA will be red, VA will be called early for R/R and it won’t be close enough for libs to cheat.

  4. Herschel Smith on November 5, 2012 at 10:53 am

    Very astute analysis, Poli. Very good. Convincing … at least, until the real numbers come in on Tuesday.