CNN shows a 49-49 tie, but…

November 4, 2012

It’s a D+11 sample! Also, this is Romney’s best result in this poll. Since November 2011.

25 Responses to CNN shows a 49-49 tie, but…

  1. Arizona CJ on November 4, 2012 at 8:37 pm


    I was a week too early with my bet that we’d see D+ double digits in the polls.

    As an OT aside, the AZ senate race. If Jeff Flake (R) loses, it’s because his campaign did it to him. It’s robocalls; several people I know (and me) have received at least four from him in the last week (in the case of one friend, 6. We keep hanging up, but the damn robocalls keep coming. The same damn message. How stupid does his campaign have to be to get the message that repeated robocalling pisses people off? Two of the victims of these were going to vote for Flake but as of today say they probably won’t now. I really can’t say as I blame them; this kind of harassment isn’t tolerable, and it leaves people wanting to hit back the only way they can.

    A live person would be treated differently, but repeated robocalls… get a damn clue, Flake; you’re pissing off people who were going to vote for you.

    • Anonymous Un-Paultard on November 4, 2012 at 11:46 pm

      So they are so fragile they’ll throw our
      future into the toilet for a bit of inconvenience? 4 to 6 phone calls a week is their breaking point? Victims? Give me a fuckin’ break!Be pissed off for a week or for the rest of your fuckin’ worthless lives; and you are pushing that as legit? You’ve outed yourself as a troll.

      • Arizona CJ on November 5, 2012 at 12:23 am

        These aren’t political types. They don’t see the big picture (getting Reid out). And it’s more than four calls; that’s the minimum. It’s now 7 for one person, IN FIVE DAYS. These may be isolated incidents, but if they aren’t, this is a problem; a Republican harming his own campaign and wasting money to do it. That helps nobody but the Democrats.

        A troll? I’m reporting what I’ve seen and heard. If that’s trolling, stick it where the sun don’t shine.

        I voted for Flake last week and I don’t regret it, but hell no I’m not going to let this kind of crap pass in silence. Or would you rather everybody kept quiet and let a Republican trash his own campaign? I’ve tried phoning and e-mail; I haven’t gotten a live person at his campaign yet.

        • Anonymous Un-Paultard on November 5, 2012 at 12:18 pm

          “I really can’t say as I blame them; this kind of harassment isn’t tolerable, and it leaves people wanting to hit back the only way they can. ”

          Whether you agree with them or not, perhaps you could try convincing these “victims” otherwise rather than reenforcing their victimhood. Wait until after the election at least before trashing Flake. Sheesh

          • Arizona CJ on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 pm

            I *HAVE* tried to convince them to vote for Flake, by pointing out that a D senate will be a roadblock to killing Obamacare and a ton of other things that need doing. I’m still trying. Maybe I’ll succeed with some, but that remains to be seen. (I’m pretty sure I’ll fail with one; he’s really steamed and he got called again today).

            All I can do is try. If Flake’s campaign hadn’t screwed up, I wouldn’t have to be wasting my time on this and could do more of other things to help other candidates. But the big picture worries me; if this mess is statewide, Flake is likely to lose; a victim of his own campaign. I’m hoping this is just a local aberration.

            And sorry, Flake’s campaign caused this mess (and if widespread, he may lose because of it) so no, I will not keep quiet until after the election (when it’s too late to matter). There’s a word for people who won’t criticize any aspect of their party’s actions prior to elections: Democrats.

  2. Goonions on November 4, 2012 at 9:09 pm

    CNN has to make their fantasies come true some way. Kind of like Dorothy clicking the heals and saying “there is no president like Obama.” The problem is going to come on Wednesday when they are actually forced to face reality.

  3. basokla on November 4, 2012 at 9:24 pm

    Some of the internals in that poll don’t add up at all.

    But this is the best one: shows Romney leading among independents 57%-39%.

    And the top line is tied 49%-49%?????? Yeah. Right.

    • Arizona CJ on November 4, 2012 at 10:20 pm

      That does add up *IF* the D’s have more than twice the turnout advantage they had in 2008. Otherwise, you’re right, it doesn’t add up at all.

      And I haven’t seen even the most optimistic D predicting Obama doubling his margin from 2008.

      Obama carried indies by 8 in 2008.

      • Brent on November 4, 2012 at 10:41 pm

        Yeah, the lying libtard media-hacks are in full blown panic mode and they don’t seem to care about the absolute fools they are making of themselves with an absurd +11D con-job. Never before have those leftist media pricks been so completely in-the-tank like they are now and their credibility-loss after 0bama loses will be beyond devastating. CNN’s ratings will tank even worse than they are now, which is already awful. Infomercials about foot odor will have better ratings than CNN.

        • Goonions on November 5, 2012 at 1:57 am

          Trust me, they already have the spin figured out and their audience will drink the kook-aid wholeheartedly. They have no shame at this point.

          • Drew on November 5, 2012 at 10:24 am

            No amount of liberal spin will cover for CNN’s insanity here.

            Even other leftist media consultants are laughing and rolling thier eyes at how astoundingly ridiculous this CNN poll is.

            +11D!1?? Wow, are you freaking kidding?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

    • Tim on November 5, 2012 at 11:39 am

      Actually–that poll does not make any sense at all for a differant reason. They could only come up with a tie with an 11 point D advantage. Pew used plus 4 and came up with plus 3 Obama. Ras and Gallop are using either a slight positve advantage for Republicans or a 2 point advantage for the democrats–and its one point Mitt.

      I think this is one of the polls that falls into the 5 percent end of the confidence–total garbage and not because of the sample size for democrats.

      • Anonymous un-Paulbot on November 5, 2012 at 12:09 pm

        I don’t agree Tim; this is not an outlier. It’s just skewed in a very biased way.

        Dial CNN’s +11D down to Pew’s +4D and it becomes about a seven point advantage for Romney, which (although high) is still at the top of Romney’s upward trend before hurricane Sandy. Obama ticked back up a tiny bit during Sandy, but he is now ticking back down to the pre-Sandy levels as it becomes clear that the federal response to Sandy is far worse than Katrina ever was. Now, although a seven point advantage is at the tip top of Romney’s pre Sandy trend, it was (and still is) very real and possibly the number we will all be looking at tomorrow night. CNN’s poll could be spot on once you remove their ridiculous +11D bias and dial it back to reality. So there’s no need to dismiss it, just chuckle at CNN’s biased idiocy and realize that Obama will probably lose by between 3 and 7 points when it’s all said and done. Obama may lose by even more if there is some unforeseen wave turnout, but Obama loses by at least three or more. Bank on it.

        • Anonymous Un-Paultard on November 5, 2012 at 3:00 pm

          Ah, the PC version of my handle. Nice!

  4. Gerry Owen on November 4, 2012 at 9:36 pm

    I have never called a presidential election wrong since 1980.
    2000 is the only one I called a tossup.

    This one is absolutely fascinating.
    The polls are ridiculously all over the board- state polls don’t correspond with national, the phenomena of early voting, etc etc.

    I have to give Romney the edge. I think he may have won already.

    If you look at the map and how it has changed over the past few weeks, every state in play is former Obama turf. The firewall is broken.
    Romney will carry FL, VA, NC and probably IA. He will probably carry CO and has a decent shot at NV and NH.
    it will come down to four states. Obama will need all of them, Romney will need 1.
    OH, PA, MI, WI.
    All are in play, and Sandy may have disrupted the vote fraud machine of Philly.
    I Think we will win.
    We will hold the house, lose no more than 6.
    We will probably miss on the Senate- thank you Todd Akin and Mourdock (who I donated to, dammit).

    • Pete in CT on November 4, 2012 at 9:52 pm

      I agree with much of what you mentioned, and I agree Romney will win OH and the election. One thing I want to comment on is the Phila fraud machine.

      I grew up in the Phila suburbs, and Sandy will help the fraud machine. Watch on election day, around 5pm-7pm there will be reports of long lines at the poles. Dems will find a judge to allow them to keep the polls open to 10 or 11pm. Happens every year, they will somehow blame the delays in voting on the storm.

      They use that extra time to round up more voters and bring them to the various polling locations. Many of the pepole they bring in are not residents of that precinct, just bodies to vote. Brings vote totals up for their candidate, in this case Obama.

      Some are paid to go from precinct to precinct, think of the lady in the video about free Obama phones.

      • Gerry Owen on November 4, 2012 at 10:16 pm

        I remember the guy they interviewed on CNN 4 years ago that was so happy to vote for Obama he had already done so twice, and may go back again…
        its a damn shame they get away with it every election.

        • Anonymous un-Paulbot on November 5, 2012 at 12:12 pm

          They won’t get away with as much cheating as 2008 and besides, the left will lose.

          Sucks to be a liberal.

          It’ll suck even more to be a liberal tomorrow night!

      • Brent on November 4, 2012 at 10:21 pm

        Your fraud theory is interesting but don’t forget factor in the fact that significantly less people are willing to be loaded up and dragged across town to vote for 0bama, especially after he has failed everyone so bad and lied / tried to cover up terrorist attacks on 9/11 etc.

        People were a lot easier to convince back in 2008 when he was unknown, and to vote for him was part of some historic event. Now, it’ll take a lot more arm twisting to motivate people to be hassled with voting for a known liar and an utterly failed presidency.

        No, the hard-to-convince voters will be virtually impossible to convince now that 0bama has been exposed for the failure and liar that everyone knows he is.

  5. jjdcoach on November 4, 2012 at 10:51 pm

    The sample of 693 is small and the D +11 is silly. However, I think this poll is an outlier that would translate to 55-45 in favor of Romney. I don’t think it is accurate.

    After weighing the other polls of note:

    Pew Obama +3 has a D4 slant and some of the internals regarding voter intensity are not analyzed at all. It seems they are looking at 08 #’s and most indicators mean that every heavy DEM county would have to be open late to make up for: 1) lower EV turnout for Dems among their most reliable voters 2) increased turnout for GOP among their least reliable voters (GOP voters vote on Election Day) 3) tighter margins in raw #’s.

    If you adjust for internals I think is dead even – with MOE shifting to GOP – to make it really R 49.7- O 49.3.

    NBC WSJ is = (don’t buy the +1 top-line the margin was SEVEN voters out of 1000 +, but if also skewed D5 so the 47-47 is you adjust to even dispersal of voter is about 51.5 R 47.5 0 If the trend that Gallup/Ras show is correct the spread goes to 54 – 46 R

    BG/GWU Poll – is another narrow poll that is close R +1. This sample actually has Gov. Romney netting +2 from last week and has a D5 slant. The final analysis of Goeas is 51-48 R

    This will be about turnout. Can the DEMS match 08 and is GOP Enthusiasm as strong as it appears to be based on rallies and poll intensity.

    • Brent on November 4, 2012 at 11:36 pm

      The polls are left leaning garbage that have been fully debunked and not worth the bandwith it takes to read them.

      America rejects 0bama.

      The end.

  6. Brent on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 pm

    1 more day to go leftys, and your faux messiah will have helped the nation to make the biggest shift to Conservative principles in modern history.

    Once America tasted liberalism, she quickly realized how bitter and toxic it is, and she immediatley spat it back out.

    0bama destroyed the democrat brand even worss than Carter did.

    You leftys sure know how to pick ’em


  7. Dan on November 5, 2012 at 6:15 am

    Didn’t Carmona in the AZ senate race say that the male moderator in their debate was “prettier”than Candy Crowley”? What is up with Arizona btw? Romney has a big lead,but the senate race is up for grabs. Why?
    It will really piss me off if Romney wins but some redstate voters in Arizona,Missouri and Indiana put liberal Dems in the senate.

    • Tim on November 5, 2012 at 11:48 am

      I can’t speak to Arizona. But I can speak to Missouri. The only republican in this entire stae that could possibly lose to Claire is Toddd. Some of it is the rape stuff–some of it is other comments. The guy would abolish the minimuim wage for example. now frankly that might be good economic policy but it will get you killed in an election. Hell Claire won last time because she was in favor of essently enshrining automatic increases to the minimuim wage in the state constitution and Talent was against. I will say that if claire loses or even if it is within 5 points–it is because she is the onlt Democrat in the whole state that could lose to Todd. My guess in Indiana is that the guy there also screwed up with his God’s will and rape comment.

    • Arizona CJ on November 5, 2012 at 2:17 pm

      Flake’s campaign has been ham-handed and incompetent in several ways. See my post on this, the first comment in this thread for one glaring example of spending money to drive votes away.

      As for Carmona, his campaign is sleazy but cunning. They did mass calling for several weeks, downplaying the “democrat” and billing him as Bush’s surgeon-general. These were live calls, one-on-ones trying to persuade voters, not robocalls. This was coupled with outright lies in TV adds.

      Flake’s campaign said “Hang up on these guys”. I disagree (though I see his point for most people); I think the best angle was what I saw one of my friends do; when Carmona’s campaign called, he started by saying he had little info on the senate race, etc. He vacillated back and forth, and managed to keep the call going for around 20 minutes. In the end, he profusely thanked the caller for helping him to make up his mind to vote FOR FLAKE. He kept them talking so they’d have that much less time to work on an undecided voter. I think the warm thanks to the caller for helping make up his mind for Flake was an awesome touch.