My final predictions

November 5, 2012

Romney will win 49-48, a half point either way, and the rest going to third parties. Romney’s number will be very similar to Ronald Reagan’s 50 percent in 1980, Jimmy Carter’s 50 percent in 1976, and Richard Nixon’s 50 percent share of the two-party vote in 1968.

Of the swing states, I predict Romney will win North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and New Hampshire, for a total of 285 electoral votes.

Obama will win Wisconsin, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, for a total of 253 electoral votes.

In Senate races, Republicans will prevail in Nebraska, North Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, Virginia, Ohio, Arizona, and Nevada.

Democrat Senate candidates will prevail in Florida, Missouri, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, PennsylvaniaConnecticut, New Mexico, and Hawaii.

So the Senate will be tied 50-50, and Vice President Paul Ryan will break the ties.

Now volunteer! Then vote!

17 Responses to My final predictions

  1. Bonaparte on November 5, 2012 at 6:13 am

    Id win so much money under this scenario

  2. Dismantle ObamaCare on November 5, 2012 at 6:30 am

    Poli – Great analysis! I think we’ll win Wisconsin bring Romney to 295. Also, I think we’ll lose PA in an annoyingly close fashion, but Smith will upset Casey giving us the 51 we need.

    I don’t know what it is with the senate – the GOP always sh*ts the bed at the last minute. There is no reason we shouldn’t be able to take 8 seats this year!

    • Drew on November 5, 2012 at 10:00 am

      I don’t buy it this time around. I agree with you on Wisconsin, but I think Obama outsmarted himself in PA and it’ll slip away from the dems. It isn’t so much that Romney wins PA but Obama will lose PA; that’ll be the talking points anyway should PA go red.

  3. Carl on November 5, 2012 at 6:42 am

    I said 315 last week. I am less sure, but if I’m right at all, it will probably be in that range. There is no real reason to think PA is more than a one point harder get than OH. I talk to people from Ohio all the time, and I just do not see the Obama support. Maybe they are just really ashamed of themselves.

  4. Dan on November 5, 2012 at 6:53 am

    If Obama wins because of Ohio,I hope immediately he puts in some anti-fracking executive orders. Then I hope he puts in new emission standards that will shut down their factories. And that Jeep completes it plan and moves jobs to China. They will have deserved this fate.
    Ohio,WAKE THE FUCK UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  5. Cornfed on November 5, 2012 at 6:58 am

    I think you’re a little optimistic about the senate, but I’m in exact agreement with you about the swing states. If Romney wins one more, it might be WI. But I’m not countin’ on it.

    And what Dan said. What in the world is Ohio thinking???? There is so much that will go bad for Ohio in a second Obama term.

  6. Robert on November 5, 2012 at 7:03 am

    I think you’re definitely overestimating Obama’s both GOTV effort and the degree to which pollsters have screwed the pooch this year. Go read either Baseball Crank or Bob Krumm for an indepth debunking of the polls, but IMO it’ll come down to Gallup being closest to the truth this election cycle and the talk on the left will be about how Rasmussen purposely tanked their numbers to make the “Reality Based” community think things weren’t as bad as they really were. Seriously, Gallup’s electoral makeup poll from last week tells the story of Obama’s demise, in an electorate that’s gone from running D+7 to R+1 and where 13% of his voters from 2008 have admitted to defecting to Romney and where Romeny is winning independents by double digits AND where Romney enjoys a double digit enthusiasm lead among his voters, there’s no way you’re theory about a 49-48 victory makes sense.

    There’s a tricky little fact about American voters, a huge swath aren’t partisans. These non-partisan voters aren’t all Independents, but the population includes Independents and significant minorities of both Democrats and Republicans that don’t eat, sleep, breathe the 24 hour news cycle. To them, the economy is bad, and has been bad for, for the last four years. They didn’t believe Obama when he said it was getting better, but they believed him when he said it would and his failure to deliver, along with his reckless spending and the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) are things they find inexcusable. That disconnect, between what they believed once and realize now, between what he promised and delivered, between what he said and what he did, is what will elect Romney President. It’s the margin that no pollster has managed to measured directly except, IMO, Gallup and then only in their breakdown of Voter demographics for the 2012 race, and that’s why I think the vast majority of political prognosticators, including you, have it wrong.

    Look at the evidence: the internals of every poll show the same thing – Romney voters are more motivated and he’s winning independents and undecideds by a large margin. Obama’s early vote totals are down as much as 20% in some states while Romney’s out performing McCain’s 2008 numbers by anywhere from 8% to 20% in those same areas. All of that says LANDSLIDE and that’s what it’ll be. Romney’s share of the vote will be big, we’re talking 53% to 45% with 2% going to third parties. The EV vote total will be Romney 315 to 223. Republicans will get 51 seats in the Senate and gain 10 in the House. More than that, we’ll expand our control of state house and state Governorships. We’re talking electoral shift here, and it’s all thanks to Obama.

  7. unclefred on November 5, 2012 at 7:44 am

    I don’t see the Democrats winning Senate seats in either Mo or In despite the unforced errors by the Republican candidates. I also don’t see them winning Fl, or Pa if it is is very close.

    Mass is an interesting case. I heard an interview with Scott Rasmussen today who said that if the Republicans were not close to taking the Senate, Brown would win by a few points, but that the partisans in Mass are so concerned about losing control of the Senate that they will hold their noses and narrowly vote for Warren. Very ironic.

  8. Dan on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 am

    R’s will win MT,ND,NE. I also think Thompson wins Wisconsin. They lose Maine. Mass,MO,and Indiana are up for grabs. Not sure about Florida,VA. Ohio will stay Dem. Arizona,I just don’t get but think Flake holds on.
    My prediction,50-50 senate.

  9. Frank Smith on November 5, 2012 at 8:37 am

    Way overestimating Obama’s strength! Romney will win by 8-10 points carrying WI, PA, OH, IA and maybe MN, MI, NV and OR.

    • Drew on November 5, 2012 at 10:06 am

      Way overestimating Obama’s strength!

      Yes, and putting way too much faith in the lying liberal media’s bullcrap polls.

      I see it going more the way of the Wisconsin recall vote, where everyone talked about how “TIGHT” it was and how nobody would know the results until days later — yet Wisconsin was called in favor of the GOP before I had dinner. It wan’t even close and I don’t think Obama has a prayer at it being close enough for the lefty cheaters to cheat. I’ll be a Romney win and decisive enough to be called that night! Probably before the left coast’s polls are even wrapped up.

  10. Freddie Sykes on November 5, 2012 at 9:48 am

    I am sticking with Romney at 296 (Remember the 2nd Maine!) and about 5 points in the popular vote. Sandy will depress Obama’s vote totals without changing the electoral college. Pick up may 5 House seats but I do not trust state polls enough to hazard a guess on the Senate. Let’s hope Romney has coattails!

  11. MortimerSnerd on November 5, 2012 at 10:28 am

    1. If Romney ahead a point in both gallup and rasmussen, then he’s probably further ahead than that, because late breaking deciders tend to go for the challenger. is there any reason that trend would be different this year? Don’t see it…bur really, if I actually knew anything, I wouldn’t be in a relentless state of anxiety over this…

    2. Both Gallup and Rasmussen are tracking polls. My uninformed guess is that Obama got an initial bump and that has receded, along with growing resentment over handling of the situation by government officials. If that’s so, Romney is doing even better than the very latest polls, because earlier days in the tracking would more likely contain the remains of the initial Obama bump?

    3. I just have this gut feeling that in the polling both, people are going to have a hard time thinking “I want four more years of this…”

    4. But I remain extremely anxious, so if anyone can comment on my comments or supply further info (such as up to date info on voting in Ohio), I’d be appreciative. By the way how do people actually know the partisan breakdown of early voters in Ohio?

    • Drew on November 5, 2012 at 10:46 am

      Don’t give in to fear or anxiety.

      The dark side are they.


    • Edward on November 5, 2012 at 4:49 pm

      As Sean Hannety says… “let your heart not be troubled”
      It is not the election so much I am worried about it is the aftermath….My fear is the Obama will not acceed to the will of the people.

  12. bwild72 on November 5, 2012 at 1:04 pm

    yes yes yes

  13. John T on November 5, 2012 at 3:41 pm

    330 EV 53-45 Romney I think the MSM has overplayed their hand this time if your into train wrecks watch MSNBC tomorrow night