Poll: Pennsylvania is very close

November 4, 2012
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Muhlenberg college confirms this morning’s poll, of which I was skeptical: Obama leads by 3 in a D+4 sample. 2008 saw a D+7 electorate; so Romney might indeed win this year.

Also, Republican Senate candidate Tom Smith has spent $17 million of his own money. Add that to Romney and outside groups’ $12 million, and Republicans have made an enormous investment in Pennsylvania this year, an investment the broke Democrats cannot match. No wonder they have Bill Clinton spending all his time in PA tomorrow.

14 Responses to Poll: Pennsylvania is very close

  1. Arizona CJ on November 4, 2012 at 3:10 pm

    It looks to me like it’s 48 to 46 in that poll, which means Obama by 2, not 3?

    The trends though… they show a steady and growing move to Romney overall, and in key metrics, since September.

    And Obama is at 48% approval… Not a good place for an incumbent.

    I’m skeptical that the senate race will have much impact. For example, in Massachusetts, Scott Brown is ahead, but no matter what if he looses it won’t be by much. That;s in a state where Romney is going to get trounced – Obama will likely win there by 20 points.

    But all in all, I see this poll as good news. Thanks!

  2. Dismantle ObamaCare on November 4, 2012 at 4:00 pm

    Pew has Obama up 3 in their final poll. Not good for us :( They got it on the nose in 2008 and 2004.

    There has definitely been movement towards Obama. This is terrible.

    • Mike on November 4, 2012 at 7:09 pm

      Sample 37D and 31R.

    • reliapundit on November 4, 2012 at 7:44 pm

      1 – TOOMEY WON WITH A BIGGER GOP TURNOUT THAN A DEM TURNOUT AND MITT IS MORE POPULAR THAN TOOMEY. ADDITIONALLY: DEM CATHOLICS WILL VOTE AND DEM JEWS WILL VOTE MITT.

      2 – AXELROD AND JARRETT SENT BJ CLINTON TO PA TO MAKE 4 APPEARANCES BECAUSE HE IS MORE POPULAR WITH THE BITTER CLINGERS THAN BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA JUNIOR.

      NO ONE WILL BE FOOLED OR MOTIVATED TO VOTE OBAMA BY BJ.

      ROMNEY WINS BY 3%.

      • Anonymous un-Paulbot on November 5, 2012 at 12:38 pm

        Those are very close to my thoughts as well.

    • jjdcoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:09 pm

      Pew Obama +3 has a D4 slant and some of the internals regarding voter intensity are not analyzed at all. It seems they are looking at 08 #’s and most indicators mean that every heavy DEM county would have to be open late to make up for: 1) lower EV turnout for Dems among their most reliable voters 2) increased turnout for GOP among their least reliable voters (GOP voters vote on Election Day) 3) tighter margins in raw #’s.

      If you adjust for internals I think is dead even – with MOE shifting to GOP – to make it really R 49.7- O 49.3.

  3. Pete in CT on November 4, 2012 at 4:18 pm

    Good Poll for Romney fans. Close with Romney moving in the right direction. Obama at 48 beofre the push leaners(1% still not sold on Obama).

    Three areas wher the poll might have over sampled Obama strength;

    • Anonymous un-Paulbot on November 5, 2012 at 12:43 pm

      They did oversample Obama and I suspect they will be proven wrong tomorrow.

      I also have heard directly from a few people who conduct the polls and they were specifically instructed by their polling supervisors to avoid getting data from “white men” or “white females”. The supervisors kept saying they want to get data from blacks and hispanics whenever possible, but the poll was suppose to be generic findings.

      There’s so much fraud in polling this year, it wouldn’t surprise me if Romney won by double digits.

  4. Pete in CT on November 4, 2012 at 4:23 pm

    Good Poll for Romney fans. Close with Romney moving in the right direction. Obama at 48 beofre the push leaners(1% still not sold on Obama).

    Three areas wher the poll might have over sampled Obama strength;
    1) Single % vs Married %
    2) Young % vs Old %
    3) Obama areas in total vs Romney areas

    Bottom line – PA should be closer than the 5+ RCP average, and Romney has 48hrs to close the deal. Nobody would have thought he had a chance in PA 3 weeks ago.

    This article if it is spread throught Western PA and Ohio can only help Romney and hurt Obama – more coal regs by EPA in late November-

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/november-surprise-epa-planning-major-post-election-anti-coal-regulation/article/2512538#.UJbkMoW1-AI

  5. Jim,MtnView,Ca,USA on November 4, 2012 at 8:38 pm

    I read somewhere that this is the first major election of the modern American era where both sides believe they will win.

    fwiw, George Will (RINO pundit) says Romney will win in a blow-out. And take Minnesota.

    • Arizona CJ on November 4, 2012 at 8:49 pm

      Hrmmm… I think that in 2000, both sides thought they would win. In 2004 both sides seemed very confident too.

    • Earl on November 5, 2012 at 1:10 pm

      Barone also has Romney over 300EV’s. Barone knows his business!

      • Drew on November 5, 2012 at 1:11 pm

        321 keeps coming up again and again.

  6. jjdcoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:13 pm

    D4 might be a bit high. I would think that Rasmussen/Gallup (which are national) are too high for Blue State like PA – but D4 seems a bit high. What was the 2000/2004 turnout differential that year and is the D7 national or state-wide?

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