Early voting in Nevada shows a close race

November 4, 2012
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Early voting has ended in Nevada, and Democrats led 44-36.

That’s actually good news for Romney. In 2008, Democrats led early voting by 20 (!) points. But Republicans’ election-day advantage brought Obama’s margin of victory down to 12.

Applying that math to this year’s 8-point Dem early vote lead shows that the race is a dead heat, consistent with Rasmussen’s last poll showing Obama up by 2.

And what does the RCP average for Nevada show? Obama +2.8, consistent with Rasmussen and early voting. Three data points, including actual voting numbers, probably aren’t all wrong. Obama will probably win Nevada, but by only a couple of points.

But Nevada is not a must-win state for Romney. If we’re seeing these sorts of swings in other states, that’s worrying for Obama.

6 Responses to Early voting in Nevada shows a close race

  1. Cornfed on November 4, 2012 at 11:32 am

    Hard to know what to think about this. If NV swings 9 points compared to 2008, I guess that’s good. A 9 point swing nationally means a 2 point PV margin for Romney. And NV has consistently been one that most (not all) conservative analysts thought was out of reach, so this isn’t a surprise or disappointment (well it is, but NV was never a critical part of Romney’s EV strategy, so not a great loss).

    On the other hand, to the extent that it validates the RCP averages, it’s scary. Because the RCP averages don’t point to Romney EV victory. Ugghhh. I wish it was Tuesday. I can’t take this much longer.

    • PoliPundit on November 4, 2012 at 11:34 am

      The difference is that, in the other states, there is a wide variance between RCP, Rasmussen, and early voting.

  2. Setnaffa on November 4, 2012 at 12:02 pm

    What happens if Romney wins 50 States?

    • Arizona CJ on November 4, 2012 at 3:12 pm

      Then the Democrats demand a recount… perhaps in all 57 states. :)

  3. Jim,MtnView,CA,USA on November 4, 2012 at 12:29 pm

    Analysis of and by Gallup.
    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332386/parsing-polls-michael-g-franc
    But Gallup uncovered one very significant shift in this year’s voting electorate. There has been a remarkable movement toward the Republican party. As Gallup reports:

    The largest changes in the composition of the electorate compared with the last presidential election concern the partisan affiliation of voters. Currently, 46% of likely voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 54% in 2008. But in 2008, Democrats enjoyed a wide 12-point advantage in party affiliation among national adults, the largest Gallup had seen in at least two decades. More recently, Americans have been about as likely to identify as or lean Republican as to identify as or lean Democratic. Consequently, the electorate has also become less Democratic and more Republican in its political orientation than in 2008. In fact, the party composition of the electorate this year looks more similar to the electorate in 2004 than 2008.

  4. Earl T on November 5, 2012 at 6:22 am

    RCP’s averaging of polls is like comparing apples to chainsaws! There is such a wide variance between methodologies chosen to model turnout, but one thing is very clear: Not one of the major pollsters is considering the 2010 results! They all go back to ’08. Too, only few consider the Repub increase in Voter ID. Take that into consideration and the so-called “tie” disappears in a solid Romney win.

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