Early voting has ended in Nevada, and Democrats led 44-36.
Applying that math to this year’s 8-point Dem early vote lead shows that the race is a dead heat, consistent with Rasmussen’s last poll showing Obama up by 2.
And what does the RCP average for Nevada show? Obama +2.8, consistent with Rasmussen and early voting. Three data points, including actual voting numbers, probably aren’t all wrong. Obama will probably win Nevada, but by only a couple of points.
But Nevada is not a must-win state for Romney. If we’re seeing these sorts of swings in other states, that’s worrying for Obama.