49-49. He sees a D+2 electorate, with Romney leading by 9 among independents.
Rasmussen has Romney getting LESS Democrats than Obama is taking Republicans. I doubt that happens. My guess is Romney is ahead by 1 or 2 by Tuesday – Obama’s strong disapproval jumped to 44 today and his strong approval has jumped 6 points since his 10/30 photo op. My guess is that the strong approval number edges back down to 32 or 33 by Tuesday.
The next two days of polling will be much more meaningful – the northeast looks like the 1979 Carter era right now. Two more days of that will wear ever so slightly on the President.
I foresee a few (Rassmussen Obama win) to a lot (Romney win) of pollsters making the “We didn’t catch that late break” excuse.
I think all non-in-person interview polling is flat broke over phone call non-responsiveness and Cell-phone area code blur.
The undecideds in the sample of 798…13 are leaning. 9 to Romney, 4 to Obama. If just those vote and the rest stay home, the head-to-head goes to 46-44 Romney.
That leaves another 21 undecided. But these are likely voters. If they split the traditional 14-7 to Romney, that puts the head-to-head at Romney 47.4%, Obama 44.6%.
But, yeah, too many white voters, not enough black and Lations.
He also predicts Obama will get more Democrats than Romney will get Republicans. Not happening.
Rasmussen is off this year.
Just got back from the Romney rally in Des Moines. Nice crowd, good energy. Romney is a flawless speaker. His voice was getting a little hoarse, not that that’s any surprise.
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Which Senate seats will switch parties in 2014?