UPDATE: I’m not buying this poll. While the party ID split is reasonable, the other internals are far too favorable for Republicans. In particular:
- The racial breakdown is 90% white and 6% black, in comparison with 2008′s 81-13.
- Ideology is 50% (!) conservative. Compare with 2008′s 27% conservative, 50% moderate, 23% liberal.
Rasmussen should poll PA. His internals are almost impossible to pick apart…
ORIGINAL POST:
47-47. The sample is D+6, consistent with 2008′s D+7.
If Romney wins Pennsylvania, he’d need just one other state out of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, and Minnesota.
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Poli wanna buzz kill?
Guns, God and Obamacare at work in Pennsylvania.
…and coal.
I see off-setting problems with the poll-
Good news for Dems
1) Blacks @ 6% too low as is Phila County @ 10% of sample (same problem-fixing 1 fixes other)
Good news for Repub
2) Dem sample(~6%) to high as in Rep (4%)while indep is too low (~10%)
3) Senior sample probably too low by 5%
Neutral – 50% conservative is reasonable. Liberal in poll is consistent with 2008. Change has been from Moderate to Conservative. Much of PA is white, conservative, Democrat territory. While there are no doubt liberals in all counties, the big areas are Phila, Montgomery, Delaware counties in the South East and portions of Allegheny county in the West.
All in all no change from yesterday – very close Romney needs to keep Phila County to no worse than Obama +425k and do well in Phila suburbs.
All my opinion, but I think it will be closer than the Obama +5%(excludes the Tribune poll) in Real Clear Politics average. Romney has a shot, but Obama has the advantage of Phila voting Dem at 80%+ in each of the last 3 elections.
Here is more detailed analysis (and obviously better written) of what I was explaining above.
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/mitt-s-pennsylvania-push-real-or-fake_660255.html?nopager=1
take away – Obama won Phila County by 480k in 2008, Kerry won Phila by 410k in 2004. Romney has a shot at PA at 425k or less.