Poll: Obama leads by 6 in Pennsylvania

November 3, 2012
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Assuming you agree with PPP, that Obama will turn his 2008 D+7 advantage into an even stronger D+10 this year. If you believe that, I have some embassy security to sell you.

Same goes for their Wisconsin “poll”, which they could only rig to give Obama a 3-point lead.

10 Responses to Poll: Obama leads by 6 in Pennsylvania

  1. Dismantle ObamaCare on November 3, 2012 at 7:36 pm

    PPP is going off a cliff here. The PA poll is ridiculous – Obama’s lead is cut to 50-47 if you assume 2008 turnout! It’s a tied race!

    • PoliPundit on November 3, 2012 at 7:38 pm

      Yeah. I think 2008 turnout is optimistic for Obama. We’re looking at something like 2004 turnout, which means Obama is behind.

      • Pete in CT on November 3, 2012 at 8:33 pm

        I agree – just looked at the cross tabs they have D48-R38-I14. Independents in 2004-2008 were 20,19,19. Also independents approve/disapprove of Obama is 37/50 yet poll shows them favoring Obama 49-45, even though Romney’s approve/disapprove is 47/44. Recalculating with a D42-R38-20 which is a blend of 2004 and 2006 puts Romney up +1.

        Big issue will be the fraud coming out of Philadelphia County (city only). If Romney can stay within 425,000 votes he (in my opinion) has a shot at PA.

  2. Dismantle ObamaCare on November 3, 2012 at 7:54 pm

    If you apply 2004 numbers 41/39/20, it’s 49/48 Bam. That’s the same number Rasmussen has for “those most likely to vote”, but in his poll, they are tied at 46 with indies. Either way, couple this with the GOP poll showing Romney tied in MN and gaining in virtually every blue state and PPP looks foolish.

    At this point, it really only matters if Romney can actually move voters in key states. PA is in play!

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president

  3. Dan on November 3, 2012 at 8:34 pm

    The polls have totally gone off the rails. Sorry. If Obama is doing so well,he wouldn’t be making 3 trips to Wisconsin in 4 days.

  4. oh boy... on November 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm

    The latest PPP poll for Washington State has Obummer up only 53 46 with a 48 approval rating.

  5. Setnaffa on November 3, 2012 at 9:55 pm

    Don’t get cocky; but we could see well over 300 EC votes for Romney…

  6. Trent Telenko on November 4, 2012 at 3:57 am

    As expected, the polls have all turned sharply Obama based on their 2008(+) turn out models, yet I keeps seeing non-party religious efforts — and gun-hugging is a religion — like these.

    Both parties have maxed out in the swing states, and Romney has more resources at the end to open up the battlefield, but the Democrats & media seems impervious too the implications of efforts like the NRA’s in supercharging the rural/exurban gun culture in places like Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/11/under-the-radar-guns-have-become-an-issue.php

  7. Dan on November 4, 2012 at 7:05 am

    Some of the polls are actually using higher Dem turnout than 2008.

  8. allie on November 4, 2012 at 8:00 am

    Vote like your life depends on it. Not only your life but maybe the whole country’s life. I don’t think we can survive another 4 years of Obama and Harry Reid.

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