Or at least that’s what you’d think if you looked at the Des Moines Register poll. The catch? This highly biased poll had Obama leading by 17 in ’08; he won by 9. Correcting for that bias, it looks like Romney will win Iowa by 3 this year.
The big number is here that Obama is at 47. Romney will win Iowa!
The poll was conducted by J. Ann Selzer. The same J. Ann Selzer who did a poll for Bloomberg in June showing Obama up by 13 nationally (see below for her rationalization of that poll). The same J. Ann Selzer who did a poll for Bloomberg in 2010 trying to show that Americans were too stupid to realize that (1) Obama cut taxes, (2) made money on the bank bailout, and (3) has grown the economy for five quarters straight (see below for Bloomberg’s write-up of that poll). The poll was accompanied by the following quote from Selzer, which tells you all you need to know: “The public view of the economy is at odds with the facts, and the blame has to go to the Democrats. It does not matter much if you make change, if you do not communicate change.” Don’t believe this poll. Don’t believe any poll by Selzer.
Some interesting electoral math.
If you go to 270towin.com, and just add Minnesota to the swing states (it clearly is one now, it;s in play) both candidates have a safe base of 191 each.
Romney has solid leads in FL, NC, and Va (counted as swing states for this) which is something Obama has in none of the swing states, with the possible exception of Nevada.
And this is all based on D 2008 level sampling.
The Pittsburgh Tribune poll today shoes Pennsylvania a dead heat at 47%.
So, I;m hopeful for Tuesday.
The iowans can’t get off the gubmint farm subsidy tit.