Nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result

November 3, 2012

It’s worth looking at just how badly the conventional wisdom thinks Republicans will be annihilated on Tuesday:

Intrade: Obama 2-1 favorite
Nate Silver: Obama 4-1 favorite

Latest polls: Obama all the way!

In fact, the polls are so bad for Republicans that Reuters-Ipsos shows the Congressional vote breaking this way in key states:

Virginia: Democrats lead 46-44
Ohio: Democrats lead 47-43
Florida: Democrats lead 50-43
Colorado: Republicans lead 47-45

If these polls are to be believed, Republicans are going to be wiped out up and down the ballot.

The silver lining: If we are surprised on Tuesday, we’ll be pleasantly surprised. Hence the Churchillian title of this post.

8 Responses to Nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result

  1. Dan on November 3, 2012 at 5:47 pm

    Obama is making 3 stops in Wisconsin in the last 4 days. Yeah,he has it locked down!

  2. sane_voter on November 3, 2012 at 5:47 pm

    These numbers are garbage. In Colorado, the early vote is documented as +3R by the SOS, (see but the poll respondents say they voted +7 for Obama. In their own poll the D’s are voting 89-5 for Obama while the R’s are voting 90-4 for Romney, a wash, and Indys are +13 in the RVs (14% of the total meaning they are R+2). This implies that the early voters are D+9 in the poll when we know it’s R+3. So their early voter screen is totally screwed up.

  3. Dan on November 3, 2012 at 6:00 pm

    Romney will win. Tired of the hysterical bullshit.

  4. Dismantle ObamaCare on November 3, 2012 at 6:07 pm

    Look at this…

    Deadlocked under 50 and Obama was up 15 on Oct 1 in same poll.

    A GOP poll out in MN had Romney up 46-45. The same poll had it 47-43 after the first debate so this could be real. If Obama is under 50 in +10 states from 2008, there is NO WAY he is at 51 in Ohio.

    Just VOTE! Don’t listen to the exit polls – follow Michael Barone when the returns start coming in. I have a feeling the press is going to call the race for Obama on Monday night!

  5. oh boy... on November 3, 2012 at 6:41 pm

    ok, so they are tied in NH, yet Mitt is leading with Indies 54-32. And New Hampshire is said to be an even D/R. WTH? The likely voter screens have to be screwy.

  6. Trent Telenko on November 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm

    The easiest answer is they are lying.

  7. Cornfed on November 3, 2012 at 9:39 pm

    Good news, bad news.
    Nevada is pretty much in the bag for the Dims, now that early votes have been counted. There’s too many of the registered voters that have already voted, and too big a lead, to make up on election day, even with a strong R turnout. Not that this is especially surprising.

    That’s the bad news. The good news is, Dims are winning NV by about the margin that Rasmussen predicted. Here’s to Rasmussen being right the rest of the way!