Poll: Bob Casey on his way out in PA?

November 3, 2012

He leads by 1, 46-45, a bad place for an incumbent senator.

As for the accuracy of this poll, in 2010, Susquehanna had Republican Pat Toomey up by 2, he won by 2. They had Republican Tom Corbett up by 7 in the governor’s race. He won by 9.

In fact, this latest poll could be underestimating Republican support, as Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey notes:

The turnout in Pennsylvania in 2008 was 44/37/18, almost identical to what Lee uses in his weighting, and arguably a high-water mark that Democrats aren’t likely to reach four years later.

2 Responses to Poll: Bob Casey on his way out in PA?

  1. TN Conservative on November 3, 2012 at 10:28 am

    I certainly hope that Smith wins, not only because of the potential GOP Senate majority that would result, but because Casey is one of biggest empty suits in either party that I have ever seen. He has totally rode his family name to every position he has had in politics. He comes off as being pretty ignorant in what few interviews he has given. He is in this position (in the polls) because of a sense of entitlement and the fact that he didn’t work hard enough. I sure hope that he goes down on Tuesday.

  2. Dismantle ObamaCare on November 3, 2012 at 10:42 am

    This poll makes sense – the Franklin Marshall poll that had Obama up only 4 had a D +13 sample. Obama looks very weak – wonder why Ras hasn’t picked this up in PA polling? He has Obama up 51-46 – I want to believe Susq is right! Maybe Ras is underestimating in several places!