Remember: If Romney wins Wisconsin, Colorado, and any of Iowa, Nevada, or New Hampshire, he’ll be president.
We already got CO.
Wisconsin is too white for Obama to win.
The story is the same no matter which poll is your personal favorite. Pew, one of the most respected in the business, showed Obama winning only 37 percent of likely white voters. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Obama stuck at 36 percent. Gallup’s weekly tracking found his approval rating among whites at 38 percent. Even Public Policy Polling, a Democratic robo-polling firm skewered by the Right, finds Obama’s job approval at 39 percent in its tracking. If Obama can’t hit 40 percent, he badly needs to maximize the minority and youth turnout that comprise his base.
That’s why we’ve heard so much about the vaunted Obama campaign turnout machine. It’s a downright necessity when the campaign needs to mobilize segments of the electorate that, historically, are less likely to show up at the polls. In the election campaign’s final stretch, Obama has been able to remain very competitive in states with these demographic characteristics–Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina–and holds a small advantage in Nevada. But in these first three states, Obama is struggling with both white voters and seniors, whose support is below his already-weak national averages. That’s creating a scenario where the president faces a high bar to expand the minority share of electorate even further over 2008 to compensate.
Indeed, one of the reasons polling tends to be most volatile in these states is that the makeup of the electorate will determine the winner. There aren’t a whole lot of persuadable voters here. Polls showing Romney ahead assume the electorate will be whiter and older; polls showing Obama leading tend to expect a more diverse electorate. The winner in these states will be which campaign is best able to turn out its base. Early vote tallies in all three states suggest that Democrats are coming close to hitting their turnout targets, but with GOP enthusiasm surging substantially versus a weak showing in 2008.
Good find that article.
When it comes to WI, he should be.
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