In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain by almost 260,000 votes in Cuyahoga county, Ohio. Cuyahoga is Obama’s best county, and could be representative of Obama’s statewide vote.
This year, early voting in Cuyahoga is lagging behind the 2008 numbers, while early voting in Republican parts of the state is soaring. Just how far behind is Cuyahoga? Well, the county is kind enough to post the numbers on a daily basis. By the weekend of 2008, 43,402 votes has been cast. But, this year, just 36,578 votes have been cast. That’s a drop of about 16 percent! If Obama’s vote statewide is similarly suffering, then his statewide 4.6-percent margin of victory in 2008 is looking perilously small indeed.