Obama Defectors…

November 2, 2012
By

Vis instapundit we find this countering poll from the-fix.

The summary:

Two weeks of Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll interviews find 84 percent of likely voters who supported Obama in 2008 support him this year, while 13 percent say they are switching to Romney and 3 percent are backing others or haven’t made up their mind yet.

Some basic math:
Obama winning percentage in 2008 52.9% * .84 = 44.43% with 1.5% undecided. With 6.87% of the 2008 vote shifting to Romney. With Republican enthusiasm at an all time high, Republican voter registration up, and an at least somewhat disillusioned Democrat party where is Obama going to find enough new voters to make up the gap?

7 Responses to Obama Defectors…

  1. oh boy... on November 2, 2012 at 1:33 pm

    another one of the confusing polls. Yet their poll today has been basically even, how is this possible?

    there’s this:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/regardless-romney-obama-among/2012/11/02/051f1620-239e-11e2-92f8-7f9c4daf276a_page.html

    of course the post doesn’t feature that, all they talk about is their o+3 Ohio poll.

    These numbers don’t make sense.

    • James Norton on November 3, 2012 at 8:31 am

      The taken over commi news stations need the American people to believe its close so their massive cheating scam won’t be caught by the public. Really Obama is losing Ohio and PA by 9 to 10 points. No one would by Obama squeaked by with that kind of polling. But 1 or 2 point difference Joe public will. Hint I’m using the paper ballot.

  2. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on November 2, 2012 at 1:44 pm

    An update to the I’pundit story uses the WaPo numbers to make an estimate of the likely national totals on Tuesday. Conclusion? “…Obama right now is at 47%, and Romney at 52.9%, or nearly a six point spread—and this is with the miserably depressed McCain GOP Electorate of ’08, and not the Crawl Over Broken Glass GOP voters of ‘12. I smell landslide.”

  3. Setnaffa on November 2, 2012 at 2:37 pm

    If it ain’t close they can’t cheat…

  4. oh boy... on November 2, 2012 at 2:38 pm

    I wonder if they a math error with that 13% ‘defector’ graph. Maybe double counted somehow. There’s overlap with groups.

    This is of course one of the first questions i’d ask if was a pollster “Did you vote for Barack Obama?” and “Who are you voting for?”, but yet the polls don’t usually do that!

  5. […] Polipundit asks the obvious question: […]

  6. Earl on November 3, 2012 at 6:36 am

    Barone’s calling it for Romney. When Barone calls an election, you can take it to the bank!

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