Could today be Obama’s best day of polling until the election?

November 2, 2012
By

Josh Jordan thinks so:

Today Rasmussen’s daily poll shows a tied race at 48 each. This sample was gathered the three days immediately following Hurricane Sandy, and would lead many to think the president might receive a small post-hurricane bump as Americans “rally around the flag.” If that is the case, over the next four days there is a good likelihood that whatever bounce Obama got from Sandy would dissipate as voters focus back to the election, and as bad news emerges from the northeast, of people still seriously suffering in places such as Staten Island.

In addition, there is a theory that the incumbent gets a small boost in the final week leading up to an election. In 2004, Kerry won late deciders of three days or less by nine points, but only won voters who decided over the whole last week by six points. That would indicate that the voters who decided in the final week, but before the final weekend, broke to Bush in 2004 by about eight to ten points. That’s a small slice of the electorate, but that would tighten the race slightly like we are seeing today.

If those numbers repeat in 2012, it would be very possible that the numbers that President Obama sees going into this weekend are the best he will see before election day.

6 Responses to Could today be Obama’s best day of polling until the election?

  1. Dismantle ObamaCare on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 am

    Will Republicans be brave enough to hammer Obama over his Katrina like response to Sandy’s effect on Staten Island? We have the airwaves for the next few days – hope we use them.

    MY guess is that Rasmussen Michigan poll won’t be good news for us today :(

    • Cornfed on November 2, 2012 at 11:18 am

      I wouldn’t sweat it. MI ain’t going to Romney anyway. And it doesn’t need to. Romney will win without it.

  2. oh boy... on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 am

    The bump in the polls is just the Sandy bounce, it will all dissipate.

  3. Ken W. Good on November 2, 2012 at 11:09 am

    I think the pictures and the visuals will do it for the R’s.

    • lcs on November 2, 2012 at 12:29 pm

      One of the network morning shows (Today?) had a long and devastating live-on-the-scene segment about the devastation and total lack of response in Staten Island. I was almost in tears myself. Add the 4-6 hour lines for gas and the total disblief from politicians on both sides that the NY Marathon will take place. Plenty of pictures and videos.

  4. Evan3457 on November 2, 2012 at 6:57 pm

    From what I’ve read online, Romney is actually still ahead in Rasmussen, 48.4 to 47.6. Don’t know if it’s true or not, but I’ve seen it in several places.

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