If you believe the polls, Obama will win

November 2, 2012

RCP is a deep blue sea. We’d better hope all the pollsters have it wrong, or we’re basically looking at the same Congress and president we have now for four more years.

23 Responses to If you believe the polls, Obama will win

  1. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on November 2, 2012 at 9:40 am

    Whatever the outcome of the Pres election, I hope Repubs in Congress grow a backbone.

    • Ron on November 2, 2012 at 4:57 pm

      They will have to kick Behner (sp) out of the speaker position if a Rep majority
      will be able to fight off Ob’s destructive plans.

  2. Cornfed on November 2, 2012 at 9:46 am

    Meh. Nothing new to see here, just new polls that say the same thing that older polls do. By the way, not ALL the pollsters have to be wrong. Just some of them.

  3. Tim on November 2, 2012 at 9:54 am

    Well Jim I hope you are right about growing a spine. But the other thing to note is that the pollsters do not all have to be wrong, at least as to their presidentila results. Everything is within the margin of error. Also, it could very well be that they all are wrong. Not because of a conspiracy–but most are using turn out models that reflect an electorate that is either the (a) the same as 2008 or (b) slighlty better from a democratic viewpoint or (c)in some cases only slightly worse. Maybe that will be the case but I don’t think it will be.

    By the way–does any one know, is Gallop going to resume polling or are they done for the duration?

  4. RedStateGal on November 2, 2012 at 9:55 am

    If you follow the link, Rasmussen disagrees with the deep blue polls. Could this be an effort to depress Republican and Independent enthusiasm? Nah, they would never do that.

  5. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on November 2, 2012 at 10:18 am

    I’m also buoyed by something Poli covered a few posts back.
    In the 2010 midterm, a LOT of Repub first-time congresspeople got elected. Now they are all up for re-election. By the law of averages, some of them (and some of their districts) must be endangered.
    In spite of that, there seems to be widespread agreement that Repubs will hold the House. A Cook Political press release dropped their target to a “0 to 5” net gain for Dems in House races. Pitiful. If Obama was doing well wouldn’t we expect it to be reflected in the outcome of elections for the House of Representatives?

  6. unclefred on November 2, 2012 at 10:19 am

    Gallup restarted yesterday and (I think) will release a results today that are missing 3 days.

    That latest NH poll is from a highly questionable pollster. When the cross tabs are published I’ll take a look.

    • unclefred on November 2, 2012 at 10:39 am

      I’m wrong about Gallup. They’ve started polling, but will apparently not release until Sunday with a 4 day moving average.

    • unclefred on November 2, 2012 at 12:43 pm

      No internals posted as yet. However this poll was conducted from 10/29-10/31 while NH was being hit by Sandy and dealing with the aftermath. Phone lines down. Cell towers off line. Tuesday morning something like 80% of the state had no electrical power. Wednesday morning 42% of the state had no power. Gallup stopped polling so because they would not have gotten representative samples in NJ and NY. I’m looking forward to the internals, but until I see evidence otherwise, I seriously doubt this poll reflects the electorate in NH on Nov. 6th.

  7. DANNY on November 2, 2012 at 10:21 am


    The polls showing Obama leading in key swing states are all 100% accurate: Obama will win all those states if the turnout on election day mirrors the turnout predicted in the polls.

    The problem is the turnout predicted in the polls is greater for Dems and Obama than 2008 and greater anyone imagines the turnout will be this year.

    If the turnout this year was better for dems than in 2008, then the GOP would be trailing in house elections and they are not.

    Therefore, the turnout predictions in polls showing Obama in the lead are wrong. If the turnout is average for presidential elections then Romney wins in a landslide.

    Looked at another way: if Obama is getting fewer independents this time than last time… HE LOSES.


    And that’s what all the polls really show.

  8. Gerry Owen on November 2, 2012 at 10:28 am

    Oh. My. God.
    Obama just said “Al Qaeda has been decimated!” in his speech in OH.

    The only thing decimated is the Benghazi consulate….

    • Ron on November 2, 2012 at 5:10 pm

      This is a perfect opening for Romney. Obama has just reopened Benghazi for Mitt and I’m sure he will respond with asking how Al Qaida was able to destroy and kill our people in
      the 9-11-12 raid on our Consulate if they were decimated…
      Perfect in for Mitt and can’t be accused of politicizing the tragedy…Go Mitt, rip this lying scumbag into pieces.

  9. archtop on November 2, 2012 at 10:32 am

    The ONLY poll that matters is the one on Tuesday. It’s all ground game at this point…

    Still, I expect the polls to be tight until the end…

  10. Joe on November 2, 2012 at 10:33 am

    Don’t worry about the last few days in the polls. Obama has a temporary bounce from Sandy but it’s over now and will dissipate in the last days leading up to the election. Gallup shut down for good reason.

    Two other things in Romney’s favor are the undecideds (Obama isn’t at 50% and most undecideds will break for the challenger) and, even more important, the flawed turnout models in the polls. Think of all the disgusted Republicans who stayed home in 2008. They won’t be counted as likely voters because they didn’t vote last time.

    I didn’t vote in 2006 and I registered as an independent because I was disgusted with the Republicans at the time. I voted for McCain in 2008 but I thought about Obama on election day because of the promised “net spending cut.” This year I donated to Romney’s campaign — the first campaign donation of my life — and voted for Romney on the very first day of early voting in Maryland.

    Even in a deep blue state, I can say with confidence that the only person in America more excited for Obama today than in 2008 is Bill Clinton.

  11. Dan on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 am

    RCP has moved left. They use extreme outlier polls in order to boost Obama. Obama is losing.

    • mikeb on November 2, 2012 at 10:58 am

      Yet even if you throw out the “extreme outlier” polls Obama is still winning the key states and tied in national. The most favorable pollster for Republicans is again Rasmussen and even using his latest polls the race is a tossup at best.

      • RedStateGal on November 2, 2012 at 11:38 am

        Yes, this is why we have to vote. My Mom just underwent a radical mastectomy last week, and she says she will put a bulky coat over her bandages and vote for Mitt. And she will.

  12. Strider on November 2, 2012 at 11:55 am

    I’m starting to worry he will win. Not enough are excited about Romney. He just can’t ‘seal the deal’.

    • Earl T on November 2, 2012 at 1:32 pm

      I call “TROLL” and phoney on you!

      All the Repub polls show excitement for Romney is very high. Take your turn-out suppression BS over to Huff Po and Lib-tard whores!

    • Ron on November 2, 2012 at 5:19 pm

      Don’t know where you have been lately, an incumbent president who can only poll even with his opponent, is in serious trouble. This Benghazi incident is the one that has or will cook his goose. My step son, who is a strong Democrat/Liberal told me he would hold his nose and vote Romney. This really surprised me as he hates conservatives,but he can see thru this phoney deal.

  13. Dan on November 2, 2012 at 2:34 pm

    The pollstera are trying to make news. And influence the decision. Obama will lose,and in the aftermath of his defeat,off himself.

  14. Mona Lisa Vito on November 2, 2012 at 3:52 pm

    Stay frosty friends

  15. Goonions on November 2, 2012 at 6:11 pm

    If you believe the MSM we are in a major economic boom and Obama will win in a landslide. So many of those polls are using way too much democrat oversampling. They are trying to get him elected. We will just have to wait on Tuesday. I am really interested in seeing what we see on Monday.