Nate Silver’s secret sauce

October 28, 2012
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He assumes that Obama will just lose three states from 2008 – Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.

Every other swing state will go to Obama – Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota

But Romney is tied or ahead in at least two of those states, according to the RCP average: Virginia and Colorado.

So Silver isn’t just using the RCP averages to count Obama states; he’s then screwing with those averages to get the results he wants.

In other states, the latest polls show the race tied – Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan (where a Democrat pollster shows a 47-47 tie.) Unless undecideds suddenly swing towards the incumbent, these states would be Romney’s, no?

Not to mention the surprisingly strong showing for Romney in states like Minnesota. And New Hampshire, where an Obama lead of 1.4 percent is almost entirely due to a week-old outlier poll showing him ahead by 9.

Against this backdrop, it’s reasonable to question Silver’s “model.” What secret sauce is he using to entirely discount the tied polling in Virginia and Colorado, the latest tied polling in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and Romney’s surprising strength in other states? Or is he, like the paper that employs him, simply ignoring inconvenient data like the Libya disaster and Rasmussen polling? He owes it to his readers to tell them.

11 Responses to Nate Silver’s secret sauce

  1. Trent J. Telenko on October 28, 2012 at 11:50 am

    Silver is going to be burnt toast on 7 Nov 2012, just like the NY Times.

    • Ray Kay on November 7, 2012 at 8:21 am

      Lol.

  2. Jim,MtnView,Ca,USA on October 28, 2012 at 12:41 pm

    So, Silver is former DailyKos guy.
    He made a good call in 2008.
    He failed miserably in the 2010 midterm.

    Is his whole reputation bound up in being right…one time?

    • Robert McNamara on October 29, 2012 at 10:32 am

      Any retard could have called 2008. I’m not impressed by nate. Hopefully the utter incompitance of his predictions for 2012 will result in America hearing much less of his nonsensicale ascertions in the future.

      • Clark Clifford on November 7, 2012 at 9:06 am

        Hey Robert, turns out your political predictions are as good as your spelling. Sorry, you would probably want me to write “you’re speling”.

        I guess you must be “any retard”.

  3. bobo on October 28, 2012 at 12:54 pm

    R O M N E Y
    Mitt Rom Ney is the guy for me
    with a knick knack paddy whack give the a bone
    let’s send Obama straight back home

  4. Dan on October 28, 2012 at 1:18 pm

    Silver wants to keep getting Reggie Love backrubs.

  5. Richard Starkey of the Restored United States on October 29, 2012 at 4:51 am

    The new Zogby?

  6. Noworwhenever on November 7, 2012 at 6:14 am

    Haha. Silver “assumes” Obama will lose three states from ’08? He’s “screwing with” the numbers to fit his biases? This is awesome. Your language shows a profound lack of understanding of Silver’s methodology. And the hilarious part is that Silver takes great pains to explain his process, yet all conservatives see is deliberate skewing. There’s a name for his “secret sauce”–it’s called math.

  7. diderot on November 15, 2012 at 7:47 pm

    This is hilarious. Keep up the good work, we’ll keep laughing!

  8. hcg drops on January 14, 2013 at 2:53 am

    Love it. Thank a lot for doing such a good job. I’ll come to this site to find out more and tell my coworkers about it.

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