So we hear how early voting has skewed the polls to show strong Democrat turnout among likely voters.
This memo from the RNC indicates that perhaps early voting is not as favorable for Obama’s prospects as the meme suggests.
Detailed results are available for all the swing states so it’s worth checking out the link. But here are a couple of summaries:
First, we can calculate the party’s share of AB/EV activity as compared to the party’s share of voter registration. The data show the percentage of AB/EV activity from Republicans is greater than the percentage of registered voters which are Republican, indicating higher turnout rates among registered Republicans than among registered Democrats. For example, Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 5.6 points in Florida, 8.73 points in Ohio, and nearly 12 points in Pennsylvania.
Second, we can measure the party’s share of AB/EV activity as compared to its share in 2008. In most cases, the data show Republicans making up a larger share of early voters this year than they did four years ago. Democrats make up a smaller share, giving Republicans an important advantage. Across the eight states, Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by a net 5.85 percentage points, while Republicans are over-performing their share by 2.13 points, yielding a net swing of +7.98 percentage points for Republicans.
and here is the data from Ohio:
Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 8.73 points.
Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 7.60 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 5.94 points. The result is a net swing of +13.54 percentage points for Republicans.
Republicans have closed the gap on Democrats’ historic absentee and early vote advantage for 15 of the past 16 days.
Republicans have made almost 3.7 million volunteer voter contacts in Ohio since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.
Bottom line based on measurable data the Democrats are well behind their 2008 pace in early voting and Republicans are ahead of 2008. There is a likely voter poll out in Pa that shows Romney and Obama tied which assumes that 96% of those polled are likely to vote. That must be false.