About Democrat dominance in early voting…

October 26, 2012

So we hear how early voting has skewed the polls to show strong Democrat turnout among likely voters.
This memo from the RNC indicates that perhaps early voting is not as favorable for Obama’s prospects as the meme suggests.

Detailed results are available for all the swing states so it’s worth checking out the link. But here are a couple of summaries:

First, we can calculate the party’s share of AB/EV activity as compared to the party’s share of voter registration. The data show the percentage of AB/EV activity from Republicans is greater than the percentage of registered voters which are Republican, indicating higher turnout rates among registered Republicans than among registered Democrats. For example, Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 5.6 points in Florida, 8.73 points in Ohio, and nearly 12 points in Pennsylvania.

And this:

Second, we can measure the party’s share of AB/EV activity as compared to its share in 2008. In most cases, the data show Republicans making up a larger share of early voters this year than they did four years ago. Democrats make up a smaller share, giving Republicans an important advantage. Across the eight states, Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by a net 5.85 percentage points, while Republicans are over-performing their share by 2.13 points, yielding a net swing of +7.98 percentage points for Republicans.

and here is the data from Ohio:

Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 8.73 points.
Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 7.60 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 5.94 points. The result is a net swing of +13.54 percentage points for Republicans.
Republicans have closed the gap on Democrats’ historic absentee and early vote advantage for 15 of the past 16 days.
Republicans have made almost 3.7 million volunteer voter contacts in Ohio since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.

Bottom line based on measurable data the Democrats are well behind their 2008 pace in early voting and Republicans are ahead of 2008. There is a likely voter poll out in Pa that shows Romney and Obama tied which assumes that 96% of those polled are likely to vote. That must be false.

14 Responses to About Democrat dominance in early voting…

  1. bobo on October 26, 2012 at 2:37 pm

    “which assumes that 96% of those polled are likely to vote. That must be false.”

    Doesn’t have to be, I’d assume that most people that will answer the phone and talk to a pollster will be engaged enough to vote. That’s why I never believe the “undecided” number reported. If someone is engaged enough to want to talk to a pollster there’s very little likelihood that they don’t know who they’re voting for.

    • unclefred on October 26, 2012 at 3:07 pm

      You have a point, but the purpose of a likely voter screen is to determine the actual likelihood of voting. These polls are of registered voters from whom likely voters are selected and then polled. In modern times, the turnout of registered voters has never approached 96%. Either the voter screen is correct and the contact method has produce an extremely odd sample of registered voters, or the screen is badly flawed. One way to produce such an outlier is if many people claimed to have early voted when they had not.

      One more point. There are no measurement tools that are calibrated to accommodate a shift in voter interest and engagement that would produce 96% voter turnout. Should that sample be true, this election will be like none before it.

      • MikeN on October 26, 2012 at 9:51 pm

        The screens are flawed. We find noone who lists themselves as unlikely to vote. or somewhat unlikely.

  2. bobo on October 26, 2012 at 3:06 pm

    Let’s speculate about the coming hurricane and what if any effects it will have in the final week of the campaign. Anyone else worried that if it causes enough damage that they need to declare a state of emergency that it could be the catalyst that gets Obama back his mojo? A week of him running around looking presidential while hugging people and promising aid for their ravaged communities right before the vote could get his favorables back up high enough to win.

  3. allie on October 26, 2012 at 3:58 pm

    I would just like to know exactly what was wrong with voting 1 day in November and having absentee voting for anyone who needed it? And what is the difference between early voting and in-person absentee voting?

    I don’t think we need a month of voting. I say go back to 1 day conventional type of elections. Less chance for mischief.

    • bobo on October 26, 2012 at 10:08 pm

      Oregon is even more ridiculous, mailing out ballots to be returned by who knows?? Most fraudulent system ever conceived.

      • MikeN on October 27, 2012 at 12:39 pm

        I suspect this is why George Bush nearly won in 2000 in Oregon. Liberals had big parties to vote for Gore. Not too hard to get some of your people among those collecting the ballots, which oops don’t quite get mailed in.

  4. mortimersnerd on October 26, 2012 at 8:01 pm

    Some interesting analysis being provided on an ongoing basis by experienced pro Adrian Grey.
    Here’s a recent and optimistic take on Ohio:


    Question: some Democrats are saying the upsurge in R voting is not significant, as D/R registration is based on last primary you voted in, and the Rs had t he last contested primary. Any thoughts?

    • bobo on October 26, 2012 at 10:10 pm

      As much as everyone likes to talk about switching registration to vote in the opposing primary to screw with their nominee the number of people who actually do that is negligible.

  5. Arizona CJ on October 27, 2012 at 12:47 am

    I voted yesterday, via Arizona’s early balloting. Arizona has two versions; you can go by the main election offices and vote in person early, or you can get a ballot mailed to you. I chose the latter this time. I liked it because it allowed me to research each of the ballot propositions and candidates with my ballot in front of me (and I had about 50 choices on my ballot). I don’t like it because the security aspects worry me; way too easy for a political operation to “help” people vote by doing it for them. (Something I think plays a big role in the D advantage in early voting).

    I do like early voting, but I’d be happier if it was limited to November, and in person. One thing for sure though; even in person, I much prefer to print out a sample ballot and fill that out at home, and take it with me. I’ve had ballots with over 100 choices before (judges, local races, state and local initiatives, etc) so I need the “cheat sheet”.

    Also, even for a party-line voter (which I’m not… though I was this time) it wouldn’t be easy. Some races aren’t partisan, and others are just difficult. For example, there were eleven candidates for the county board of supervisors, all Republican, and it was a “choose not more than 2” race.

    • CenPho on October 27, 2012 at 8:37 am

      What did you vote for 121 and 204?

      • Arizona CJ on October 27, 2012 at 8:54 am

        “No” on both. I’d have prefered “hell no!” but that wasn’t an option. 121 is the “top two” primary system, like they implemented in California. I’m a fan of closed primaries, so that’s anathema to me.

        204 makes permanent the “temporary” one cent sales tax hike, passed two years ago, that I opposed. I said then that the the government can do what the rest of us have to do; live within our means. I also warned that the bastards would want to make it permanent. This temporary tax, BTW, was pushed by our supposedly republican governor, Jan Brewer. She’s done a good job since, but that still pisses me off. To her credit, she’s against 204 now.

    • MikeN on October 27, 2012 at 12:40 pm

      Just leave out the people with hyphenated last-names.

  6. zebra on October 27, 2012 at 4:44 pm

    My wife and I early voted today for Romney/Ryan and Connie Mack. We live in a gerrymandered South Florida congressional district that is 65/35 Democrat/Republican. Lines were very long. We had to wait 2.5 hours to vote. The Obama/Biden campaign was well represented — they had a booth with several volunteers set up exactly 100 feet from the door of the polling place – I watched the manager of the polling place measure the distance when someone made a complaint. There was no representation at all from the Romney/Ryan campaign, not even a lawn sign.

    There were hundreds of Democrats in line to vote their ticket compared to the relative handful of people who I could identify as Romney voters. It certainly appears that the Obama campaign is taking the campaign seriously and has not surrendered Florida yet. If they are surrendering Florida, the troops on the ground have not yet received the memo.

    If you are a Romney/Ryan voter get out there and vote. Vote like your life depends on it, because it does.