Bob Krumm analyzes the state of the polls and forecasts a Romney win.
We are now at the end of the third period and if past is prologue, Barack Obama is in deep trouble. That is because after the debates there is no further gain in support for the incumbent, while the challenger climbs two to three points.
Today, Mitt Romney sits at 48% in the RCP average of polls. Add 2 percent because of sample bias and add another 2 or 3 points for breaking last-minute undecideds, and I expect Mitt Romney to finish with between 52 and 53 percent to Barack Obama’s 46 or 47 percent.
He also discusses the problems with state by state polling. It’s worth a read.