Romney in reach in Michigan

October 18, 2012

A recent poll in Michigan shows Romeny trailing there 40.5% – 44.2% with 13.5% undecided. Also Romney is winning independents 36% to 30%. Republican enthusiasm is within a few points of Democrats.

With the devastation of Detroit and the “graying” of the unions this does not bode well for Obama. Admittedly Romney taking Michigan is a stretch, but 44 percent support with 13.5 percent undecided is not a good place for any incumbent.

23 Responses to Romney in reach in Michigan

  1. SC Andy on October 18, 2012 at 1:04 pm

    I’ll be a little bolder and say that Romney will win Michigan, but only narrow enough for the Dems to cheat and officially claim that Obama won it.

    Won’t matter though, Romney will blow past 270EVs long before the cheaters have finished filling out the ballots of dead people. The ink will still be wet on the left’s fake ballots while Romney is holding his acceptance speeech.

  2. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on October 18, 2012 at 1:18 pm

    Photoshop of Candy Crowley as a “replacement ref”.

  3. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on October 18, 2012 at 1:19 pm

    MikeN was talking about the “firewall for Obama” on some other threads.
    Here’s a Barone article on the topic, apologies if already posted.

    • bobo on October 18, 2012 at 1:41 pm

      My map has Romney at 257 with only a few leaners in FL, VA and CO (probably the closest of the leaners at the moment) which I think he’ll win and Obama at 237 with MI, PA, MN, NM, OR and perhaps NJ as leaners which Obama will probably win. The battleground for the next 2 and half weeks is OH (obviously), WI, IA, NV and NH. If Romney can capture OH which is looking increasingly more likely the election is over, game set match. This is why the debates have been such a game changer, Romney now has a better path to victory than Obama as he now has the built in advantage of trying to win states that are more demographically likely to vote for him over Obama in the first place.

  4. Earl on October 18, 2012 at 3:15 pm

    ARG has Romney +1 in Ohio and +4 in Colorado. Supposedly Susquehanna has a poll showing R+4 in PA although I cant find it. Maybe we’ve reached the tipping point? Lets pray its real.

  5. radioone on October 18, 2012 at 3:27 pm

    But, but, isn’t Michigan the “headquarters” for Obamaphones?

  6. Conrad on October 18, 2012 at 3:30 pm

    If BHO really is at 44% in Michigan, you have to figure his chances of winning there are in serious peril.

    • Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on October 18, 2012 at 3:40 pm

      Unless we’re at 44% registered voters and, say, 7% unicorns, dead people, illegals, pets, ….

  7. Arizona CJ on October 18, 2012 at 4:14 pm

    Romney might squeak by in Michigan if undecideds do as they are likely to do and break his way. It’ll be close though, and the D’s will try to cheat.

    The poll showing Romney +4 in Pennsylvania made me smile. *IF* true, it means PA is at least a tossup.

    I’m still nervous about Ohio though. What if Romney carries PA but loses Ohio? PA has 20 EVs to Ohio’s 18, so I guess it wouldn’t be disastrous (snark alert) but my best guess is that if Romney carries PA, he’s got Ohio and Wisconsin too. If things hold in FL, NC, and VA and he carries those as expected, this opens up many more paths to 270 for Romney. If we toss in NH, that’d put the race at 184 for Romney to 124 Obama east of the Mississippi. That’d give Romney a very good shot going west – he’d have it locked up, barring any major highly unlikely unpleasant surprises (like losing Texas… I put the chances of that the same as Obama losing CA.)

    • MikeN on October 18, 2012 at 4:49 pm

      It is possible for Romney to carry Pennsylvania and lose Ohio. Coal will hurt more there, and abortion is more of an issue too. Obama has spent all his time unleashing attacks in Ohio. The state is also more isolationist. Toomey was set to unseat Specter in 2004 then he ran an ad saying he supported Pres Bush in Iraq. Santorum was keeping things close until he ran a Gathering Storm in Iran ad.

      • Arizona CJ on October 18, 2012 at 7:12 pm

        Interesting point on PA and coal, and also on ad money. It would be sweet irony if Obama, at phenomenal effort and expense, succeeds in swapping PA for OH.

        Interesting too on the tie possibility. If Romney take FL, NC, and VA, plus PA, Obama would have to run the table and hole every other “blue” state, and take every remaining swing state: NH, OH, WI, MI, MN, IA, CO, NM, and NV, plus ME2, because at a 269-269 tie, Obama loses (But then we get a Romney/Biden administration).

        I’m eagerly awaiting new polling in New Jersey, Connecticut, Minnesota, and Oregon. I think Obama can hold those, though he might need to divert resources to do it in a couple of them. I’d also say that if Romney wins the popular vote by a large margin, we might see a few of those states as surprises, the way Indiana was in 2008.

        • bobo on October 18, 2012 at 7:20 pm

          You forget it’s the incoming legistature that will select the Pres/VP in the event of an electoral tie. I’m fairly confident that we will at least have elected 50 Republican Senators and Biden is not able to vote for himself in the event of a 50/50 tie as only Senators are allowed to vote.

          • Arizona CJ on October 18, 2012 at 9:46 pm

            I don’t think it’s the incoming congress, but the current one, that votes.

            Oops, I’m wrong. The counting, rather than the polling, of the electoral votes triggers the house and senate involvement if no one gets 270. So, it looks like it would be the new house and senate. (the counting is set for Jan 6th, while the new congress takes its seat Jan 3rd)

            In the house, each state gets just one vote. Even if the R’s lose control, I don’t see them losing a majority of state delegations (that didn’t happen even in 2008).

            In the Senate… I don’t see anything to stop Biden voting in the case of a tie. I don’t see anything in the 12th amendment that stops the President of the Senate (Biden) from casting a vote to break a tie. If the R’s get 51 seats, not a problem. If it’s 50-50 or less, then it’d be Romney/Biden. However, if that were to happen, my guess is that nobody would be printing up Romney/Biden 2016 bumperstickers. 🙂

          • bobo on October 19, 2012 at 10:20 am

            The way I read the 12th Amendment it states that Senators shall chose but since it’s never come down to the President of the Senate casting a deciding vote for VP it’s probably open to adjudication.

    • MikeN on October 18, 2012 at 4:50 pm

      As for the impact, Pennsylvania plus Maine 2, would yield a tie. Every other scenario it doesn’t matter, unless Obama wins Virginia.

  8. Trent Telenko on October 18, 2012 at 4:24 pm

    The Catholic vote is large in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan…and all three are trending against Obama.

    Amazing thing that, after the Obamacare HHS contraceptive mandate and Gay Marriage flip flop.

  9. Trent J. Telenko on October 18, 2012 at 4:57 pm

    Obama’s playing field is collapsing —

    Obama’s Hope Fades in Virginia

    By Robert Stacy McCain

  10. Greg on October 18, 2012 at 8:12 pm

    I would like to see a Minnesota poll. Hard to believe Romney not being at least competitive there.

    • unclefred on October 19, 2012 at 6:08 am

      Obama is spending money in Minnesota but that could be to reach the North Western part of Wisconsin. Similar to using Boston media to reach southern/mid NH. Anyone here know if that part of Wisconsin is part of the Minneapolis / St. Paul media market?

    • MikeN on October 19, 2012 at 10:14 am

      I think Romney is more than competitive there. Minnesota broke the national trend and did not show a big shift towards Obama in 2008 vs 2004 or a big jump in turnout. The state was closer than Michigan or Wisconsin or Nevada, and the same as Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Hampshire. So basically the state is trending Republican and Obama’s gains masked it.

      • bobo on October 19, 2012 at 10:43 am

        It doesn’t help Romney that Klobuchar is going to win by a landslide and the state GOP is a mess. On the positive side the Catholic church is mobilizing the vote for the defense of marriage amendment and there’s also a voter ID amendment on the ballot. All in all I still think MN is tough sledding for any GOP presidential candidate, outstate voters are still stuck in the mid 20th century union/DFL midset and haven’t realized that the national Dems have moved on to straight marxism while the Twin Cities liberal has embraced that shift.

  11. Gerry Owen on October 18, 2012 at 10:05 pm

    Don’t waste the money, unless you have enough to win locked up.
    The unions control MI, and pretty much every one with a brain and the means to leave has-
    MI is a wasteland, and as soon as they pass their prop to solidify unions forever they will become the backwater for industry in this country.

    • MikeN on October 19, 2012 at 1:02 pm

      Gov Snyder had Walker like power to roll back unions and whiffed.