An interesting fact

September 17, 2012
By

Since 2004, Rasmussen has polled party ID (Dems versus Reps.) Dems always led, until the fall or 2010. Since then, Republicans have led in all but three months.

Just how big a change did Rasmussen chart? In the last quarter of 2008, the Dems had a 7.8% lead in party ID. Now the GOP has a 1.8% lead, a change of 9.6% in the Republican’s favor. Remember that when you see one of those “polls” that assumes a D-R ID just a couple of points changed from 2008.

(via BOTW and DaTechGuy)

7 Responses to An interesting fact

  1. mortimersnerd on September 17, 2012 at 3:31 pm

    Here is http://datechguyblog.com/2012/09/17/demoralized-as-hell-the-poll-the-media-isnt-talking-about-edition what appears to be a very systematic and credible analysis – and some grounds for optimism.

    Are there are holes in the data or analysis?

    • Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on September 18, 2012 at 8:13 am

      What I’ve read is that the DaTechGuy article assumes “registered” Repubs instead of “party ID” Repubs.
      That detail noted, the analysis seems sound.
      November will tell.

  2. Arizona CJ on September 17, 2012 at 4:09 pm

    Poli, thanks for this, but I feel compelled to add that some of the polls I’ve been seeing use a D/R/I split that exceeds D turnout in 2008.

    Also, just about every poll shows Romney with a lead amongst independents. So, assume the two parties are equal, and Romney is ahead among independents, the same amount of D’s vote R as R’s vote D’s. (That last is a huge freaking assumption nationally, due to D heavy states like Louisiana and West Virginia that reliably vote Republican in presidential elections). So, how can Obama possibly win? Turnout. If D turnout exceeds R turnout by a sizable amount, he wins. And how do you suppress R turnout? Easy, you make them think they’ve lost, which the current orchestrated effort is attempting to do.

    However, Romney has to do his part and start pouring it on.

  3. Carmelita on September 17, 2012 at 6:12 pm

    What would you do if you were a pollster and observed the threats made to Gallup by the DOJ because they objected to the fact that Gallup was showing Obama behind? Thuggishness has resulted in horrible polls. The Sword of Damocles is hanging over their heads. Perhaps they’ve made them so distorted so that only a fool would believe them.

  4. Jim,MtnView,CA,USA on September 17, 2012 at 8:45 pm

    I think this is the biggest political story of 2012. I could be wrong. But the WI recall election and the wildfire Chick-fil-A celebration shows a lot of conservative energy.
    If true, Dems can only win if dead people vote in huge numbers.

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