Could Mormons decide this year’s election?

September 2, 2012
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Yes. Mormons make up over 2 percent of the population in several states, including Nevada (6.43%) and Colorado (2.78%). In a close election, with higher-than-usual Mormon turnout, and Mormons going overwhelmingly for Romney, that could make the difference in these two swing states.

Moreover, Mormons could provide the margin of victory in several other swing states as well, if the election is close. For instance, they make up 3.25% of New Mexico’s population, 1.1% of Virginia’s, 0.8% of Iowa’s, 0.72% of Florida’s, and so on. In a close election, Mormons could produce a swing of 1% or more in each of these states, similar to the 7-point increase in Southern black turnout that threw North Carolina and Virginia to Obama in ’08.

17 Responses to Could Mormons decide this year’s election?

  1. Roger on September 2, 2012 at 5:48 pm

    true, but the anti Mormon vote (i.e Evangelical) in swing states like Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio, Virginia, Florida will make it harder for Romney to win those states.

  2. Greg on September 2, 2012 at 6:11 pm

    I think Mormons are largely Republican anyways. I mean Utah and Idaho are the most Mormon states by far and are the most red.

    • Gerry Owen on September 3, 2012 at 3:53 pm

      Anti Mormon vote???
      Seriously???

      I’m sure it exists, but that will be so negligible it won’t factor.

      The vast overwhelming majority of evangelicals don’t rightly care as long as the President is a moral man and has a belief in something bigger than himself.

  3. sane_voter on September 2, 2012 at 6:35 pm

    I guess the questions are
    1) What % of Mormons are RVs,
    2) Are the unregistered Mormons registering in large numbers in order to vote for Romney,
    3) If 2) is happening, will the turnout of Mormons be appreciably higher in 2012 vs 2008?

  4. Trent Telenko on September 2, 2012 at 8:24 pm

    There are a fair number of Democratic Mormons — See Harry Reid.

    The issue is the delta difference of higher than average Mormon turn out and Mormon tribal identity voting over Democratic identity voting.

    I suspect that the Democrats Secular bigotry over Gay marriage, plus Romney being a Mormon, is going to be just a part of the religious tribal identity deluge that Democrats are going to suffer from Obama only having 27% support from Catholics as opposed to 54% in 2008.

  5. Lyle on September 2, 2012 at 9:30 pm

    I live in southern Utah and spend a lot of time in Nevada and almost every Mormon I know is very conservative and will generally vote republican , unless the democrat in question happens to be a Mormon; that’s why Harry Ried and Tom Udall do well with Mormons. And almost all Mormons are registered to vote, so I wouldn’t count on a big Mormon bounce. Now if Mitt wanted to come out of the closet and switch parties he might have a better chance.

  6. Greg on September 3, 2012 at 6:27 am

    I heard Reid is a fake Mormon who only joined to get a scholarship.

  7. dr. strange on September 3, 2012 at 6:52 am

    …the anti Mormon vote (i.e Evangelical) in swing states like Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio, Virginia, Florida will make it harder for Romney to win those states.

    I don’t think this dynamic will occur in this election. Anti-Mormons may not like Mormons, but they hate Obama more–much, much more. As Poli has predicted, quite accurately IMHO, Obama is going to be slaughtered in the white vote.

    It’s the coming tsunami that the media does not see, just beginning to gather force.

    At least MSNBC will have plenty of opportunity to scream ‘racism’ in their post-election misery.

  8. Trent J. Telenko on September 3, 2012 at 8:12 am

    It isn’t the Mormons voting tribal identity that will kill Obama.

    It is Catholics.

    See:

    http://www.coachisright.com/obamas-27-support-among-catholics-presents-a-huge-advantage-for-romney/

    If the information there is true, this is going to leave a huge electoral mark on Democrats. Obama has managed to cut his 2008 electoral voting support from Catholic voters in 1/2.

    Whether or not Catholics believe and follow their Church’s teachings of contraception and abortion, mandating that organizations associated with, and Catholics who do practice their Church’s teachings, is a tribal/identity issue for Catholics that over ride’s their party affiliation for 3/4 of them.

    IMO, this will have a political impact bigger than the Gun-hugger reaction-ism in 1994, because there are a lot more Democratic voters who are Catholic identity first.

    The Secular Bigotry of Obama and his supporters is set to bite them in the collective Butt.

  9. MikeN on September 3, 2012 at 11:01 am

    Expect Romney to lose .15% in vote margin due to deaths between now and Election Day.
    He is up 54-39 among seniors. We can expect 1% of seniors to die between now and Election Day.
    Assuming no differential in vote preferences between those who die and those who are alive, that comes to .15%.

    • Lyle on September 3, 2012 at 11:04 am

      Wow. If that’s right Hilary will win easily in 2016.

  10. dr. strange on September 3, 2012 at 12:21 pm

    How many of those terminal 1% would actually be voting?

    Not many, I expect.

    It is still an active voting bloc with high participation.

    Obama’s got far bigger problems with attrition and apathy in his welfare client base

  11. dr. strange on September 3, 2012 at 12:22 pm

    Correction–.15%

    • MikeN on September 3, 2012 at 1:22 pm

      No, 1% is correct. The .15% is because of that 1%, Romney leads 54-39.

  12. Greg on September 3, 2012 at 12:39 pm

    Many of Obama’s supporters in Chicago are now in the morgue.

  13. Trent J. Telenko on September 3, 2012 at 7:41 pm

    Micheal Barone on Jewish voting impact in 2012:

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/jewish-democrats-on-the-defensive/article/2506787

    Obama got 78% of the Jewish vote last time and has been getting about 64% in polls of Jewish voters this year. Iā€™m betting that he ends up closer to that number than to his 2008 number. That would reduce the Democratic margin (or increase the Republican margin), according to Foreman, by
    41,500 in Pennsylvania,
    19,000 in Ohio,
    12,500 in Virginia,
    11,500 in Colorado,
    11,000 in Michigan and
    9,500 in Nevada.

    This is Leftist identity politics coming home to roost.

    Between mortally offending Catholics Jews and Mormons, Democrats — Obama in particular — are going to lose at least six states they could have won and the Presidency with them.

    • Aaron on September 4, 2012 at 9:20 am

      Between mortally offending Catholics Jews and Mormons, Democrats ā€” Obama in particular ā€” are going to lose at least six states they could have won and the Presidency with them.

      At least.

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