Yes. Mormons make up over 2 percent of the population in several states, including Nevada (6.43%) and Colorado (2.78%). In a close election, with higher-than-usual Mormon turnout, and Mormons going overwhelmingly for Romney, that could make the difference in these two swing states.
Moreover, Mormons could provide the margin of victory in several other swing states as well, if the election is close. For instance, they make up 3.25% of New Mexico’s population, 1.1% of Virginia’s, 0.8% of Iowa’s, 0.72% of Florida’s, and so on. In a close election, Mormons could produce a swing of 1% or more in each of these states, similar to the 7-point increase in Southern black turnout that threw North Carolina and Virginia to Obama in ’08.