I’m not the only one who’s optimistic

May 11, 2012
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About the electoral vote:

This is a representation of the last Cook Political Report snapshot (May 10, 2012) of the race. Toss-up states are CO, IA, NV, OH, PA, & VA (note that NC & NH are conceded to the GOP). Now, obviously some of those states will go to the Democrats… but not all of them. And there aren’t that many combinations to make the numbers come out right. Here’s the best firewall that I could come up with on the Democrats’ behalf:

…and even then it requires a Hail Mary play: write off OH, FL, & VA (all three of which have gone strongly for the GOP on the state level since 2008); retain CO, NV, & PA (that last one will be a bear, but they could do it). Also retain IA… and somehow suck two EVs out of NE. That keeps the EV at 270. A bare win. That is the Democratic firewall. That, to use a pop culture phrase, should be the Democratic party’s zombie plan.

5 Responses to I’m not the only one who’s optimistic

  1. Arizona CJ on May 11, 2012 at 8:05 pm

    The D’s get TWO EV’s out of Nebraska? I don’t see that as remotely possible. One, absolutely possible, but two? NE has 5, and two go to the statewide winner, while the other three each go to the winner in their respective confessional districts. After a peek at vote totals, I’d say one is likely-to-probable D (that’s what he managed in 2008), the other two, R. That gives the D’s 1 in NE, and that brings their total to 269 – an electoral college tie.

    Now that would be interesting! It’s then go to the house, where each state gets one vote. According to the 12th ammendment, this vote has to occur immediatly upon the electoral college votes, so in December, meaning it would be the current house. I don’t know which party has the most state delegations (I thinks an evenly split delectation would deadlock, hence no vote). My guess is the Republicans have the edge here, but I’ve no real idea.

    Then the senate picks the VP. My best guess as to a result of a tie? A Romney-Biden administration.

  2. Sandman on May 11, 2012 at 11:56 pm

    CJ,
    Based on the above assumption of voting entirely along US House party delegation lines there would be 32 votes for an R candidate, it’s not even close.
    ID, UT, NV, MT, WY, AZ, CO, ND, SD, NE
    KS, OK, TX, WI, MI, IL, MO, AK, LA, MS,TN
    AL, KY, IN, OH, FL, GA, SC, VA, WV, PA,
    NH. AK

    *2 tie at this moment – MN (even)\NJ (even only due to vacancy)

    Assuming the same rules as above the Senate is as follows but is closer.
    D:17* WA, OR CA,MT, NM,CO, MN, MI, WV,VA, MD,DE,NJ,NY,VT,RI, HI
    R:15 ID, WY, UT, AZ,KS,OK,TX, IN, KY,MS,TN,AL,GA,SC,ME
    Tie:18 NV,ND,SD,NE,LA,AR,MO,IA,WI,IL,FL,NC,OH, MA, PA,*CT, NH, AK
    (*just a guess counting Lieberman as voting against Obama’s vp)

    Source material used

  3. misterdregs on May 12, 2012 at 6:26 am

    Arizona CJ is correct. There is no way BHO wins two electoral votes in Nebraska. The second district is mostly Omaha and he did win there in 2008, but the other two districts are largely rural and conservative. Lincoln is the home of the flagship university and state government and is more liberal, but isn’t populous enough to outweigh the rest of the first CD.

  4. Jay in Perú on May 12, 2012 at 9:21 am

    And what if Romney grabs off 1 EV in Maine?

  5. Arizona CJ on May 12, 2012 at 6:20 pm

    @Sandman
    Interesting, thank you!!!

    Yep, if the election is thrown into the house (and it’d be this house, not the one elected in November) looks like an R presidency. And also, a D VP. Romney-Biden 2012! :) Or would they vote Obama for VP?

    @Misterdregs, Thanks, and yeah, that’s basically what I was thinking, along with how could Obama win more EV’s in NE in a squeaker than he did in 2008?

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