44-42. Very poor for a 6-term incumbent senator; he’s probably finished.
Let us hope.
Leading by 2 is usually a victory.
The undecideds usually break 2 to 1 for the challenger.
When the incumbent has been in office for 36 years, undecideds generally break heavily against him/her. With 14% undecided Lugar needs a minimum of 43% of that vote. A weak break against him would be 2-1. The MOE of the poll is 4.9% in essence a statistical tie. This is a one day poll that show a several point move in Lugar’s favor compared to a couple of multi-day polls that ended in April. This also coincides with Lugar’s attack ads ramping up. The poll may show a legitimate shift in voter attitude, and there is time for such a shift to swing it for Lugar, or it may be an outlier. With no sample demographics we can’t tell.
The Beltway RINO cash pulled out of Indiana a week ago. I’d take that as confirmation of the shape of this race, and that their boy Lugar is finished. I think they knew the score.
It’s good to wake up these gutless wonders like Lugar. Most of them never imagined ever being turned out. The Tea Party, of course, will be the culprit.
Unclefred, does that apply for primaries?
MikeN – If the primary is between two opponents, or what is perceived as two major opponents and one is a long standing incumbent yes. Whether or not the primary is closed also matters, but less so. It also matters if the incumbent is well known to the voters, so a one term incumbent congress man is less subject to this than a two term Senator. Many undecideds in the case of a freshman house member may have little idea of his/her views and votes and simply don’t have enough information to decide, so the anti-incumbent break may never materialize at all.
Lugar is like most long term politicians. He believes it’s his seat and his exclusive right to hold it as long as he wants. He may join the ranks of Specter, Crist, Lieberman, Murkowsky and run as an independent to hold “his seat” if he loses the primary. After all, it’s that terrible tea party causing his discomfort not the majority of the people in his state.
Based on the articles I’ve read, Indiana law will not allow Lugar to run as an independent. If he loses the primary he’s done.
Now that’s good news!
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