Seven realities that the Obama campaign will face in 2012

April 15, 2012
By

It’s not like 2008:

2012 will be a referendum, not a choice. One of the best established findings of contemporary political science is that in presidential contests involving an incumbent, the incumbent’s record is central to the public’s judgment.

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No more youth movement. There is no way that the Obama campaign can expect to recreate the excitement that moved so many young and first-time voters not only to turn out to vote but also to work their hearts out for their hero.

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Blue-state big business has moved on. Team Obama will not be able to raise the kind of money from Wall Street and Silicon Valley that it did in 2008. For complex reasons, relations between the president and substantial portions of the private sector have soured.

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Obama is no longer the master of his fate. During the 2008 campaign, Obama could and did seize the initiative in the face of unexpected events. His agile response to the mid-September financial meltdown propelled him into a lead that he never surrendered. In 2012, by contrast, he will be at the mercy of events that he cannot control. The Supreme Court will decide the fate of the Affordable Care Act. A military confrontation between Israel and Iran would put the administration in the no-win situation it has struggled to avoid, with incalculable consequences for our national security as well as our politics. If job creation returns to the strong pace of the late winter and remains there through the fall, he will be reelected with room to spare. But if the middling March employment report is a harbinger of things to come, the electorate’s evaluation of his performance will be harsh, and the road to reelection very steep indeed.

7 Responses to Seven realities that the Obama campaign will face in 2012

  1. Steven W. on April 15, 2012 at 11:00 am

    One of the fallacies of the Obama economy is that the brief spurts such as EOY 2011 are much of a good indicator. At the current stage in things, even if truly robust growth were to occur – it will take YEARS of such sustained rates, month after month, year after year, to get unemployment back down to 5%. The stakes for the election are such that if Obama is re-elected – and taxes are jacked through the roof come 1/2013 – then it those YEARS it will take to recover from Obama polices will become DECADES.

  2. anonymous un-RINO on April 15, 2012 at 3:59 pm

    Yeah, this is basically an unwinnable election for Obambi, and has been for almost 3 years.

    Unless he’s running against a lying progressive crapweasel. That gives Obambi his only shot. And wouldn’t you know it? The RINOs are about to accommodate him.

  3. Infinitus est numerus stultorum on April 16, 2012 at 6:20 am

    Unless he had insire knowlesdge that the 2008 meltdown was coming.

  4. Infinitus est numerus stultorum on April 16, 2012 at 6:20 am

    “inside”.

  5. Evan3457 on April 16, 2012 at 10:09 am

    Looking for Soros’ hand up Obama’s posterior?

  6. MikeN on April 16, 2012 at 10:16 am

    For the good of the party, I hope Mitt Romney drops out and lives to fight another day.

  7. berlet98 on April 16, 2012 at 2:49 pm

    Barack Hussein Obama Will Win Re-Election (Part One)

    As difficult as it is to concede, barring a disaster or intercession by an almighty power, President Barack Hussein Obama will win re-election on November 6th. The final vote tally will be far from a landslide but a sufficient proportion of the electorate will ensure the president serves another disastrous term.

    That prediction is based on a variety of factors not the least of which is the widely-held expectation that Obama and all the president’s men and women will wage the dirtiest campaign since the populist Andrew Jackson beat the Democrat-Republican John Quincy Adams in 1828.

    Obama will also win on a populist platform predicated on calculated distortions and misrepresentations supplemented by his hole cards of racial and class warfare and he will be bankrolled with a billion dollar campaign treasury.

    However, the principal reason he will emerge victorious is not the nefarious tactics he and his minions will employ but that he has locked up various constituencies which will cast Democrat ballots because they almost always have and despite compelling reasons to vote otherwise.

    Those constituencies in order of Democrat allegiance:

    . African-Americans. Understandably, blacks chose a fellow, if semi, African-American in 2008 because, well, because he was almost black. If I were a black man, I would have supported him simply because of his race and centuries of oppression and disenfranchisement. However, the second time around, I would have supported the candidate who would best serve the interests of the country.

    Thirteen percent of the electorate, fully 96% of blacks, voted for Obama four years ago versus 43 percent of whites. While the 96% was anticipated, the 43% reflected the amazing number of “white guilters” who felt it was time for a minority presence in the White House regardless of his lack of qualifications and experience as belated recompense for the enslavement of Obama’s forebears.

    In spite of the fact the president has done as little for blacks–aside from hiring them in record numbers and for highly visible positions–as he has for other races, the African-American community is a sure bet to go for Obama in 2012 by margins approximating 2008 particularly but not exclusively due to his politicizing the tragic death of Trayvon Martin.

    Chalk up around 13% for Obama.

    . Jewish Americans. Jews are by nature and history liberal since they have been discriminated against even longer than blacks. They have endured oppression and slavery for thousands of years, and have been Democrats for as long as there has been an America.

    Nevertheless, there is ample cause for Jews to abandon their loyalties to the Democrat Party this year , . . .
    (Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=21640.)

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