The delegate math

March 22, 2012
By

It’s over:

And looking at the calendar and the resources available to Romney and Santorum, it’s just irrational to deny Romney’s got this wrapped up. It comes down to the delegate math: Despite his various missteps, Romney has been steadily winning a majority of the delegates awarded. According to CNN’s reasonable count, Romney went into Illinois with 521 delegates, out of the 966 awarded. Romney needs 1,144 delegates—an absolute majority of those who will vote at the Convention in late August—to decisively clinch the nomination.

And the upcoming contests don’t give Santorum a chance to catch up, or to prevent Romney from reaching the magic number. Last week, the wizards at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball looked at the contests pending through the end of April: Their “guesstimate” of the most likely delegate split in this series was Romney 268, Santorum 117—and this was conceding Louisiana and Pennsylvania wins to Santorum. Looking at the other states—D.C., Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Wisconsin, New York, and Rhode Island)—it’s hard to think of a scenario where Santorum could win significantly more than the lopsided minority Sabato suggests. Taking that into account, April could put Romney so close to the magic number of 1,144 delegates that the rest of the race would be a formality.

29 Responses to The delegate math

  1. anonymous un-RINO on March 22, 2012 at 6:55 am

    So I guess you and your fellow leftists at the TNR are calling it then, eh Poli?

  2. MikeN on March 22, 2012 at 6:56 am

    If it’s over, then why is Romney running ads attacking Rick Santorum?
    If it’s over, then Romney is very inefficient at spending campaign money, and is not the right person to be the party’s nominee. For the sake of the party, I hope drops out and lives to fight another day.

  3. MikeN on March 22, 2012 at 6:57 am

    Romney has another advantage. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul will not be eligible to be nominated. So Romney can pick off those delegates to get to a majority, while his own delegates are obligated to vote for him.

  4. anonymous un-RINO on March 22, 2012 at 7:18 am

    If you recall, Willard bought off Pawlenty, way back when. He picked up all Pawlenty’s campaign debt, in trade for him dropping out and endorsing him.

    It’s the ultimate insult for a candidate, that they’re forced to do that, and it gets more and more expensive to do it, as time goes on. Gingrich’s and Santorum’s campaign debts would be a hefty price to pay, and he’d have to endure whatever requirements they’d put on him to drop out, but Willard is so weak it very well may be that he has to endure that ultimate insult. I don’t see Santorum and Gingrich dropping out any time soon, as long as their cash flow holds out. Gingrich in particular can carry a $1-2M personal debt out of this campaign, because he’s a walking cash register for books and appearances, so he’s got no imperative to quit. And Santorum is taking in plenty of contributions, so he can husband his resources and carry on. And both have a SuperPac sugardaddy to help out.

    The Obamabots will be all over it, if that’s the way this crapweasel gets rid of those 2 guys, by buying them out. Obama didn’t buy off Hillary, but Willard had to buy off these 2 lightweights?

    Heh.

    And yet, if he doesn’t buy them off, he’s got another 2 months minimum of primary carnage, because those guys have every incentive to destroy him, and force him to buy them off. He’s too weak to get rid of them on his own… so it’s gonna have to be a money thing… like all of his campaign. He’s absolutely nothing without that wad of cash, he’s just another lying progressive crapweasel.

    My guess? Willard will buy off Santorum, and refuse to buy off Gingrich, which will leave the Willard-hating casino SuperPac guy and Gingrich to trash Willard the rest of the way. Such is life, when you go with a weak candidate like Willard.

  5. Herschel Smith on March 22, 2012 at 7:19 am

    I agree. It’s over. And I won’t lift a finger to help get him elected. I won’t vote classical, establishment republican any longer, simply selling my vote to the least bad candidate on the slate of horrible candidates, while both parties track to the left over time.. I’ll wait for a conservative to come along, and if that means a third party, then so be it. In the mean time, it’s all up to him since I won’t help him, and I suspect many others in the GOP are the same.

    Oh, and I thought I would remind you again that Romney is an anti-gun, elitist republican.

    http://www.captainsjournal.com/2011/12/18/mitt-romney-on-gun-control/

  6. formwiz on March 22, 2012 at 8:15 am

    Santorum is no lock in PA. He has yet to be endorsed by any prominent PA Republican and was never all that popular.

    He may make it competitive there, but he didn’t spending primary night in Gettysburg to commune with the shade of Lewis Armistead.

  7. Kewan on March 22, 2012 at 8:40 am

    Santorum screwed the taxpayers of PA when his kids were being homeschooled in VA. Why should they vote for him?

  8. ATTILA on March 22, 2012 at 9:14 am

    Enjoy the next 4 years under obammer. If the kenyan fraud gets 4 more years, it won’t matter who the GOP elects hence forth, as
    the damage done will be irreversible.

    As onerous as romney is, he can’t do squat without approval from
    a GOP congress.

  9. MikeN on March 22, 2012 at 9:48 am

    “I’m very much in favor of people recognizing that these high gasoline prices are probably here to stay.”

    Romney in 2006. And he claims to understand business.

  10. invalid10 on March 22, 2012 at 9:51 am

    Boehner starts crying again!

    John Boehner Cries While Listening To Traditional Irish Music During St. Patrick’s Day Luncheon

  11. invalid10 on March 22, 2012 at 10:10 am

    Jan 9 th 2012 ‘SNL': Nancy Pelosi Makes John Boehner Cry On ‘Weekend Update’ (VIDEO)

    “What doesn’t make him cry?” Pelosi asked, before saying “Watch this” and listing a number of things that incited loud crying from Boehner:
    “Little American flag. An old man saluting a parade… Reruns of ‘Touched By An Angel'”

  12. unclefred on March 22, 2012 at 10:14 am

    Because many of the delegates from states which have held their primary or caucus have yet to be awarded Romney and the others have fewer delegates than claimed. This is far from over, while Romney is likely to emerge as the nominee, there is a very good chance that he will not have 1,144 delegates when the primary season ends. He may be able to secure them by making a deal with another candidate before the convention. If not we will have a contested convention which may still select a nominee on the first ballot.

    As for the five state rule that prevents Newt or Paul from being nominated, that rule can be changed at the convention should the delegates and the party decide to so do. Unlikely, but certainly possible.

    Tea leaves continue to look unfavorable for Obama, and I predict they will continue to do so for the next few months. His posturing on the Keystone pipeline is not selling.

  13. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on March 22, 2012 at 12:00 pm

    So, it looks like Mitt will win.
    Personally, since I live in CA I can vote for anyone I want. Doesn’t matter, since BHO will win anyway.
    I can vote for Mitt, or Sarah, or ….depending how I feel that day.
    But if it comes down to Mitt vs Barry, I hope the incumbent loses. We need more, LOTS more, incumbent losses.

  14. Saxon on March 22, 2012 at 12:31 pm

    Guys,

    The president has no control over the market forces, at least according to FOX News:

    http://youtu.be/UzEnKdBAb_o

    You think the president can control long-term gas prices? You must be a RINO-socialist or possibly just French.

  15. Conrad on March 22, 2012 at 12:31 pm

    Santorum COULD, in theory, still win — because Mitt still only has half the delegates he need– but he obviously CAN’T win by doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Thus, as long as Mitt continues to have his face, his name, his money, his organization, etc., and the race keeps plugging along as it has been, then it’s only a matter of time before Rick is, in fact, mathematically eliminated.

    Unless Rick has some amazing trick up his sleeve, then it makes no sense for him to continue campaigning. Again, it’s not working. His only hope of actually getting the nomination is if something basically disqualifying comes out about Romney before the convention. However, if such a smoking gun exists (i.e., if some Dem goon has an incriminating videotape of Mitt doing something hideous), it’s more like to come out once Romney is perceived to have the nomination in the bag. So what little chance Rick has of getting the nomination would probably be INCREASED if he drops out now as opposed to waiting. If Santorum himself can’t beat Romney, he should get out of the way and see if Obama, Soros, or Romney himself can do the job before the convention.

  16. anonymous un-RINO on March 22, 2012 at 12:43 pm

    Disagree. Santorum doesn’t need to change much, he just needs to figure out a way to cut off Willard’s cash flow. If Willard’s cash flow were cut off, he couldn’t get elected dogcatcher.

    Not that there’s any way for Santorum to do that, but if it happens for any reason, this race changes considerably. Willard needs that cash to blowtorch down the opposition with negative advertising. He’s too much of a weak crapweasel to win it on his own. He has to outspend the opposition by at least 2 or 3 to 1 in order to win, basically.

  17. ken_phd on March 22, 2012 at 12:44 pm

    Jim,MtnViewCA:

    “Personally, since I live in CA ”

    I just came back this year to Dallas after spending a year in San Diego. They are in deep do-do out there and I don’t see a way out. The Democrats and unions have infiltrated every legislative body, every commission and most of the courts. I saw first hand the deterioration of the parks, buildings and roads.

    The level of indifference of the voters I spoke with was mind boggling. They are approaching a fiscal cliff and no one seems to care. I would guess they sense the futility of fighting the entrenched political structure. There will be more cities going bankrupt since there are no avenues left to raise more revenue.

    With the state now transferring prisoners to cities and counties (where they are subsequerntly released) I look for a volatile situation to get much worse.

    It’s a case history of liberal policies run amok.

  18. ATTILA on March 22, 2012 at 1:08 pm

    You think the president can control long-term gas prices? You must be a RINO-socialist or possibly just French.~~~saxon

    His policy of no drilling/refining can certainly effect the supply, that will in turn effect the price.

  19. Cal on March 22, 2012 at 1:37 pm

    The Keystone pipeline is anticipated to INCREASE prices in the midwest and rocky mountains by up to 20 cents per gallon. These same folks have environmental concerns about groundwater, etc. These same folks will see employment increases, albeit many workers will be transients.

    Nationally though, perhaps decrease by 4 cents per gallon due to Keystone pipeline.

    All in all, not something to rush into for election year politics.

    Google: “Keystone Oil Pipeline Seen Raising Gas Prices in Midwest: Energy”

  20. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on March 22, 2012 at 2:03 pm

    I want to encourage Cal and other Dems to continue to fight Keystone.
    Keep it up, guys! We’re pullin’ for ya! (To keep be-clowning yourselves)

  21. Benson II on March 22, 2012 at 2:06 pm

    I really don’t get it.

    The only one holding Obama’s ears so they won’t flap in the wind while he’s hitting him up alongside the head is Newt.

    Here’s what Gingrich has done.

    Came up with slogan 2.50 gal gas.
    Did a 30 minute video explaining how to do it.
    The conversation about gas prices began to take hold
    The president had to go out and start making speeches about gas prices and drilling.
    Gingrich used the speeches to ridicule Obama policies and understanding of drilling.
    The president had to go out and make some more speeches about gas prices.
    The presidents Energy Secretary pronounced he wasn’t interested in bring down gas prices
    Gingrich called him on it telling people this administration wanted European gas prices $9 and $10 dollars.
    The presidents Energy Secretary had to back pedal on his original statements
    The presidents mouth piece Carney ridicules 2.50 a gal gas saying not possible
    The president mouth piece Carney had to back pedal on statement.

    There was no National conversation about gas prices in the media or anywhere now it’s a main topic everywhere.
    Fox news gives a big tell all about amount of oil with numbers, etc.
    Gingrich gave the same facts and figures 2 days earlier.
    Obama’s poll numbers have declined since this became a hot topic.
    He’s doing a 5 state marathon talking about gas prices and drilling.

    Santorum – Bogus conservative, Bush II without Cheney as backup. Obama will chew him up and spit him out.
    Romney – Liberal wearing seriously conservative T-shirt. We can drag him over the finish line if everyone forgets about Romneycare.
    Gingrich – Kicking Obama’s a$$ along with his buddies in the press. Will chew Obama and the press up and spit them out while telling the Republican establishment to kiss off.

    I knew voters were stupid but this is beyond understanding.

    Gingrich/2012

  22. Cal on March 22, 2012 at 2:14 pm

    I want to encourage Cal and other Dems to continue to fight Keystone.

    Sure, whatever.

    Conservatives get giddy when they think that they can incite populist passion. Conservatives get giddy when they can have the opportunity to feel oppressed.

    Call them a bitter clinger and they positively spot.

  23. Cal on March 22, 2012 at 2:17 pm

    Gingrich/2012

    To use Jim’s ploy:

    Yes! Please!

  24. ATTILA on March 22, 2012 at 2:20 pm

    Conservatives get giddy when they think that they can incite populist passion.~~~kalifornicate

    This from the party of class envy socialism no less.

  25. Cal on March 22, 2012 at 2:36 pm

    This from the party of class envy socialism no less.

    Lame.

  26. anonymous un-RINO on March 22, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    Figured out a fresh cover story for your lies yet, troll?

  27. Evan3457 on March 22, 2012 at 4:05 pm

    This from the party of class envy socialism no less.

    Lame.
    True.

    FIFY.

  28. MikeN on March 22, 2012 at 6:33 pm

    Benson, it was higher gas prices that caused the conversation about gas prices, not Newt. And there has been one divorced president to be elected, that’s Reagan, and his wife left him.

  29. MikeN on March 22, 2012 at 7:16 pm

    Whoever did this analysis has his facts wrong. According to RNC, AFTER Illinois, the official delegate count is:

    Mitt Romney has 478 delegates, Rick Santorum has 182, Newt Gingrich has 133, and Ron Paul has 26. Meanwhile, 322 delegates are unbound.

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