Brokered convention increasingly likely

February 17, 2012

The ugly math:

Play around with the CNN delegate calculator and you can see that even if Romney were to win every contest going forward with 100 percent of the delegates (that’s called kickin’ it North Korea-style) he still wouldn’t reach 1,144 until April 3. Under a similar extreme scenario, it would take Rick Santorum until April 23. Here’s the real kicker: If Romney and Santorum were to split the delegates going forward and each were to carry five of the 10 all-or-nothing contests, neither candidate would win enough delegates to clinch the nomination.

Add to that mix the fact that Ron Paul’s got very little reason to not go all the way to Tampa collecting delegates along the way—and Newt Gingrich has sworn less convincingly to do the same—and the math gets even more daunting for Team Mitt.

They have one ace up their sleeve—Utah. It’s currently scheduled last in the primary calendar, on June 26, with 40 delegates; winner-take-all in a state that is famously Mormon-dominated. It could serve as a backstop for Mitt, bringing him over the top at the last possible moment.

15 Responses to Brokered convention increasingly likely

  1. invalid10 on February 17, 2012 at 12:13 pm

    Delegate Count: RP wins 75% of Maine and 50% of Colorado state delegates

    That’s what we’ve called Paul’s “secret ninja strategy” to do better than the media thinks in caucus results. His campaign has now released some claims as to how this has worked so far. In the Minnesota caucuses, for instance, Paul won 27 percent of the presidential preference vote, but 75 percent of the delegates chosen to attend the state convention are Paul supporters. In the Colorado caucuses, Paul got only 12 percent of the vote, but 50 percent of the state delegates are Paul supporters.

    That’s what the Paul campaign claims, anyway.

    I hope Paul can outperform his straw poll totals in some of this states when the actual delegates are selected.

  2. invalid10 on February 17, 2012 at 12:21 pm

    Huffingtonpost realizes that Iran war propaganda mirrors Iraq war run up.

  3. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on February 17, 2012 at 12:25 pm

    If we get to a brokered convention, who hear thinks Sarah is clearly worse then Newt?
    Clearly worse than Rick? Than Mitt? Than Ron Paul?
    By “worse” I mean ability to get votes in a general election, not that you necessarily agree with specific policy positions.

  4. Jim,MtnViewCA,USA on February 17, 2012 at 12:25 pm

    “here”, of course.

  5. Magwich on February 17, 2012 at 12:30 pm


    I think they forgot the “Hussein/Ahmadinejad is the next Hitler” reference

  6. Yep on February 17, 2012 at 1:16 pm

    If Santorum wins MI and if he pulls out AZ or just MI, it might be he might hit enough and not split to get someplace.

  7. Mr. Frothy's secrets ... on February 17, 2012 at 1:34 pm
  8. Vicky Hernandez on February 17, 2012 at 1:44 pm

    Through all this noise, ‘sure hope Jeb Bush doesn’t try to horn himself in one way or another. It wouldn’t be surprising if El Jeb pulls a move in a brokered convention. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if the “conventioneers” revolt at El Jeb’s attempt, either. Like Rev. Shakedown said 12 years ago, “Stay out the Bushes!”

  9. Craig on February 17, 2012 at 4:35 pm

    Romney gave us Romneycare. He can’t lead a whore to bed(an old Bobby Knight line).
    Dick Santorum voted for felon voting and against striker replacement and right to work.
    Yeah,I’d say a brokered convention looks pretty damn good about now.

  10. AlbertHodges on February 17, 2012 at 4:41 pm

    If Mitt doesnt win Michigan, he will NOT be the GOP nominee.

    Bye-bye, Mitt…you baby-killing liar!

  11. TN Conservative on February 17, 2012 at 4:54 pm

    I’m beginning to think that a brokered convention may be the best outcome.

    Personally, I have gone back and forth between all of these candidates without ever settling for sure on one. They all have strengths, but also tremendous liabilities. Still, a brokered convention poses risks. Yes, you could get a stronger candidate like Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Chris Christie, or maybe even Scott Walker. However, you could also get a very polarizing choice like Jeb Bush or Sarah Palin. It is important to note that all of these people have tremendous egos, and it would be hard to get some of them to step aside for the good of the party. All of them will know that they only have to run for 2 1/2 months like crazy and could end up being President. It could turn into toal chaos for the party if they are not careful.

    I still believe that either Santorum or Romney could defeat Obama, if they run good campaigns and catch a few breaks. Obama is still very beatable and vulnerable on the issues, especially the economy. And, a strong social conservative like Santorum could give him fits on those issues.

  12. Craig on February 17, 2012 at 5:57 pm

    Michigan isn’t winner take all. Arizona is,and Willard will probably win it.
    California,New Jersey and New York are winner take all. Don’t see Santorum winning those states. Plus,Santorum isn’t on the ballot in Virginia or Indiana,giving up 95 delegates to Willard.
    We are stuck with Willard.

  13. Arizona CJ on February 17, 2012 at 7:21 pm

    Just a note; Romney adds against Santorum are playing on the Arizona airwaves right now, and they are hard hitting, exposing things in Santorum’s record.

    A brokered convention? The thing is, would they be willing to nominate someone who has no primary votes, who the party didn’t vote for at all? Or would they gravitate to nominating the one with the most votes? Don’t get me wrong, I’m no fan of anyone currently in the race (I think Jim DeMint would be my pick, or maybe Paul Ryan, but I’d be happier with a of a lot of other possibilities compared to the current four).

    Now, the Arizona primary: early voting has been underway since Feb 2nd. I’ve seen lots of people at the courthouse (the early voting place in the nearest town) voting, so early turnout will be a factor.

    I haven’t voted yet, because I’m still waffling. However, it looks like Santorum has done something I’d thought impossible; he’s turned me into a Romney supporter. A very reluctant one, but at this juncture, I can see no other option for my AZ primary vote. (Gingrich seems too far gone to be viable to me at this moment, though things can change fast, and my prime goal right now is stopping Santorum rather than being for someone). I’ll probably procrastinate until next week, then go vote.

  14. anonymous un-RINO on February 18, 2012 at 5:26 am

    Michigan isn’t winner take all, yes, but delegates are distributed by our 14 Congressional districts, and right now, I’d predict that Santorum is dominating in at least 8 of those districts, maybe 10.

    Willard, the lying progressive crapweasel, is likely favored in no more than 1 CD, meaning 3 are tossups as of now. The primary “leader”, leading in only 1 of 14 Congressional districts, in his “home” state?

    In that ARG poll that came out the other day, Willard was losing in all 6 state media markets, and all 8 geographic regions, and often by huge margins. He’s losing in about all demographics. That poll looked EXACTLY like the South Carolina internal demographics, with similar vote distributions, just switch Santorum for Gingrich and keep Willard as the loser.

    Willard’s only winning in Oakland County, and is tied in Macomb County. That is to say, Willard is likely losing in 81 of Michigan’s counties, tied in one, and winning in only one. Oh, and he’ll do well around Lansing, the state capital, where he’s purchased all the RINOs, much like he did in South Carolina.

    Willard’s on the way to gettin’ absolutely dominated in Michigan, and having the state effectively become Winner Take All for Santorum. If so, it will strike as a thunderclap in this primary race, if Willard gets dominated in his “home” state (that’s a bogus bio, but that’s another story).

    I love it. I foresaw this 4 years ago when Willard dropped out after Super Tuesday. The much despised McLiar would lose the general, Willard would become the frontrunner in 2012, and then Michigan would turn on him like a water moccasin. It only went for him in 2008 by a thin margin, and only after 2 years of carpetbombing and all his many RINOs purchased.

    I see Willard’s lead in Arizona fading as well. He may take it, but not significantly. Michigan will be the big story that day. Willard’s blowtorching us right now. I mean he’s BLOWTORCHING this state. I don’t think it’s gonna work.

  15. MikeN on February 18, 2012 at 12:33 pm

    Craig, Virginia is proportional, but with a 2 man race of Romney and Paul, Paul could very easily take all of the delegates in Virginia, leaving Mitt with nothing.