How Santorum could beat Obama

February 11, 2012

Mitt Romney’s path to victory in a general election is clear:

  • He appeals to suburban independents and other upper-middle-class, socially-moderate voters, thus enabling him to win states like New Hampshire and Florida.
  • The fact that he’s a Mormon would help in western states like Nevada.
  • Hopefully, white blue-collar voters are so alienated by Obama that they propel Romney to victory in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, despite Romney’s elitist persona.

But what about a Santorum coalition to beat Obama? That’s doable, but harder:

  • Santorum’s Catholic, socially-conservative, blue-collar appeal would translate into advantages in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
  • But would fiscally conservative and moderate suburbanites and upper-middle-class independents still vote for Santorum, allowing him to carry states like Florida and New Hampshire? Right now, the answer is no; it’s just not respectable in those circles to admit that you’re a Santorum supporter.

But there are still nine months left until the general election. Any number of things could happen by then – a European financial implosion, Israel attacking Iran, American unemployment rising again, a SCOTUS decision on Obamacare… Santorum could still beat Obama, although I wouldn’t bet on it.

24 Responses to How Santorum could beat Obama

  1. AlbertHodges on February 11, 2012 at 11:35 am

    While Romney might be somewhat appealing to suburban moderates, most committed prolifers and Christians would vote for a a strongly conservative prolife third part candidate. Romney would lose an electoral landslide to Obama.

    Santorum will keep both wings of the GOP in a race against Obama. Any conservative third party candidate would not gain traction.

    Whatever Romney claims to believe in today, his has a LONG history of lies.

    Most of us that vote on social issues do not see Romney as an improvement over Obama and recognize that if Romney gets the nomination, he will give the moderate wing of the Gop control of the party for the next decade.

    If Obama wins, conservatives lose for the next 4 years.
    If Romney wins, conservative lose for the next 8 years.

    Romney is the worst thing that can happen to unborn children this year in the election.

    I predict that Romney will NOT be the nominee and for that I am so thankful!

  2. R U in the tank for the RINO Keynesians?? on February 11, 2012 at 11:45 am

    The big problem I have with Romney is he’s heavily funded by Goldman Sachs (like Obama in 2008). Thus he’ll be under the influence to do their bidding. That’s the last thing we need — a gov’t run discreetly by Goldman Sachs (and other big banks) to do their bidding at the expense of American citizens (except those lucky enough to be in the elite class) — e.g. ‘too big to fail’ bailouts, GS-men appointed to be Sec’y of Treasury, etc. And this explains the erosion of the standard of living of most Americans over the last 10-20 yrs.

  3. R U in the tank for the RINO Keynesians?? on February 11, 2012 at 11:56 am

    Interesting that Ron Paul’s biggest contributors are the US Military:

    BUT WAIT! (digging through ‘talking points’ bag for the GOP-establishment and their chosen media schills) …. er… isn’t Ron Paul supposed to have a horrible foreign policy that would let America get destroyed by terrorists and enemy forces??!!??!? What is U.S. Military thinking … oh thats right, the are a bunch of ‘stupid pawns’ (to borrow a phrase of IMF/CFR/Trilateral Commision alumnus Henry Kissinger).

  4. Lope Dog on February 11, 2012 at 12:09 pm

    Santorum is not blue collar. His dad was a freaking shrink. He grew up min wealthy suburbs in DC and Chicago. Gotta give him credit though. Many dupes think he actually just got off his shift at the steel mill.

  5. Youkidding on February 11, 2012 at 1:23 pm

    Not harder, ALL objective analysis by anyone who really understands how elections are won knows a once Santorum is more electable.

    He is because any gain Mitt gets from moderates/indies is offset by losses in depressed enthusiasm for his candidacy in general by broad based GOP voters AND total hatred and refusal to vote for him via prolife so-cons GOPers.

    You do *NOT* *EVER* in an election cycle with a weak incumbent with O’s numbers on favor ability and right/wrong track where voters are LOOKING FOR AN EXCUSE to replace him, use a candidate like Romney.

    He’s too similar to Obama in contrast election cycle.

    He fathered the weakest O issue. Obamacare, suicide going with Mitt.

    He cannot attack O on this effectively.

    He cannot relate to working classes, he is too rich in a cycle where anger at Wall Street and bailouts/stimuls (which Romney backed and Santy not) to prevail. He’s Alf Landon of 1936 in 2012. Voters wont trust him over his endless flip flopping, he’s the John Kerry of the GOP.

    My god, Poli. this is not even HARD!

  6. Youkidding on February 11, 2012 at 1:26 pm

    Lastly, Mitt is wooden, plastic, fake, and obviously insincere. Voters know from gut level he cannot be trusted. Most voters do not look at individual issues, they vote who they feel most comfortable with emotionally, and Santy connects on an emotional level with working class voters. Mitt has no such skills, and they are priceless to communicating your message and cannot be taught.

    All winners have likable personalities, it’s just that simple. Newt is not likable, Mitt is neither likable NOR trustworthy.

    That only leaves Santorum.

    Pick Rick!

  7. Lope Dog on February 11, 2012 at 1:40 pm

    Santorum was not in the Seante when the bailouts occured. Saying that,does one doubt that he would have voted for them? He was a member of the Saneate GOp leadership.
    Dn Santorum himself is rich anywats. Not Romney rich,as at least Romney earned his through free enterprise and not government corruption and largesse,ala ‘Santy”. “Santy” is a fraud.

  8. paulejb on February 11, 2012 at 2:06 pm

    Santorum is the best bet to beat Obama. The contrasts between the two men are so stark even Obama’s willing accomplices in the main stream media wouldn’t be able tp paper over them.

  9. Youkidding on February 11, 2012 at 3:03 pm

    Santy IIRC commented on the bailouts and opposed them at the time, so the above poster is speculating. Assuming he would have backed something that massive is not giving him any benefit of the doubt.

    He also opposed the mandates. While not perfect, he beats Gingrich and Romney easily overall conservative bonafides…

  10. CohoJoe on February 11, 2012 at 3:46 pm

    “Santorum will keep both wings of the GOP in a race against Obama.”
    Both wings???
    Let’s see, there is the social-none-too-conservative religious activists; (He will keep those.)
    There’s the not too conservative RINOs; (They will go both ways.)
    There’s the redneck conservative–He will get those.
    Then there’s the libertarian conservatives–you know the ones that Santorum wants to cleanse from the GOP. (Most of them will not vote for Santorum.)
    No Santorum has an excellent chance of electing Obama to a second term.

  11. MikeN on February 11, 2012 at 7:44 pm

    If Santorum wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, he doesn’t need Florida or New Hampshire.
    Let’s altogether get the map calculator out. The basic path is to win the McCain states, plus Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, for 266 votes. One more state is needed, most likely New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.

  12. anonymous un-RINO on February 12, 2012 at 12:23 am

    And most all of those states you mention are in the Midwest, where Santorum will provide leverage, and Willard won’t as we see, after getting blown out in Iowa, Minnesota and Missouri. And soon he may be blown out in Michigan, which will likely end his race should it occur.

    Willard the crapweasel brings Nevada over from Undecided to R. That’s it. That’s the sum total of electoral votes he swings firmly in any direction.

    Santorum gets as much as a dozen states moving, most of them into Undecided, yes, but he’ll get NC firmly back, and likely Ohio and Indiana.

    This isn’t really close, and the national data is starting to reflect it. The Willard “electability” meme is being shown as a lie, as the data tells us. This guy brings nothing special. Nothing.

  13. Steve Wright on February 12, 2012 at 1:03 am

    Rasmussen just yesterday released a poll showing Rick two points BETTER than Romney down in Florida in a head to head with Obama. Ohio has shown similar results.

    And you have to also factor that states like Missouri are IMMEDIATELY put in play. McCain beat Obama by .1% in MO. And Rick just won every county against Romney. Missouri definitely goes into play with a Romney nomination and that is more time and money spent defending a state that would be much surer with a Rick nomination.

    If the “live free or die” folks in NH haven’t learned their lesson about Obama yet – they need a new slogan. Victory can be found without NH.

  14. Monty on February 12, 2012 at 9:28 am

    I hope we get to a brokered convention. Gov.McDonnell of Virginia would look pretty good as a candidate. He is pro-life and a social conservative. He’s also appealing to moderates. In addition he understands foreign policy and defense issues.

  15. MikeN on February 12, 2012 at 12:10 pm

    M onty, McDonnell also ran a great campaign to get black votes.

  16. Steve Wright on February 12, 2012 at 6:23 pm

    Given we have people screaming about a meaningless CPAC vote and screaming about non-binding small state caucuses, I do not see any chance that a brokered convention would not leave a horribly divided, angry GOP with little time to unite and thus a cakewalk Obama victory and likely huge gains in Congress as well.

  17. The Oppressed 0.006% on February 13, 2012 at 7:20 am

    Hey, I know how Sanctorum can beat Obama….transport all of America to a parallel universe where Wingnut lies are REALITY! Hey, you got the media living there already, now you just have to work on the rest of America.

  18. Jay in PerĂº on February 13, 2012 at 7:46 am

    Santorum with Marco Rubio for Veep assures Florida, Nevada, and maybe New Mexico and Colorado.New Hampshire remains in doubt.

  19. The Oppressed 0.006% on February 13, 2012 at 8:39 am

    Yes, let’s get the token Republican Hispanic on the ticket, that’ll help with the spanish vote…of course, Rubio is a conservative Cuban, not exactly representative of the majority of Hispanic-Americans….but those subtle distinctions are lost on Wingnuts anyway, right? A spic’s a spic as far as you all are concerned.

  20. Jeff Dearman on February 13, 2012 at 10:36 pm

    Actually MittRomney is the BEST thing that can happen to this country.. Rick Santorum is WAYYY TOO SOCIALLY FAR RIGHT Conservative to pick up Independents and moderate voters like myself. If it wasn’t for Romney in the race, I probably wouldn’t be voting at all for the first time ever. Moderates and Independents decide elections and half of voters haven’t even started to think about the race yet, and haven’t even decided on a candidate. Mitt Romney has the best plan to create jobs, and will be the best president to repeal Obamacare, and to keep us safe from Iran, as well as deal with the illegal immigration problem. He also will be the best Republican candidate for the environment and get legislation passed for clean energy.

  21. Jeff Dearman on February 13, 2012 at 10:38 pm

    Santorum will not beat Obama because moderates and independents will just not bother voting and he’ll only have the Far Right Conservative vote which will only be like 25% or 30% of the general vote which wont be enough to beat Obama. You need Moderates and Independets to beat a powerful man like Obama and only Mitt Romney can do this.

    So if you want 4 more years of Obama vote Santorum!

  22. MikeN on February 14, 2012 at 8:02 am

    >to keep us safe from Iran

    Umm, neither candidate is likely to do that, though I guess Romney is more likely.

    Iran is not going to attack us unless we attack first. Santorum is more likely to invade or bomb, but Romney isn’t far behind. The one who keeps us safest with regards to Iran is Paul.

  23. |IlI|IlI| on February 23, 2012 at 6:37 am

    Cease, cows, life is short!