It’s all down to Florida now

January 20, 2012

Newt Gingrich will almost surely win South Carolina tomorrow. The recent polls all have him leading, the odds are in his favor, and he helped himself enormously in last night’s debate.

So it’s on to Florida.

The Florida GOP primary electorate is more moderate than South Carolina’s. But polls have had various not-Romneys leading there before they flamed out. So it’s winnable for Newt.

But Florida is an expensive state, where TV advertising makes the difference. And Romney has already been up on the air heavily, building a solid base vote.

Whoever wins Florida will likely be the nominee. So we’ll have to wait until January 31st for the next chapter in this most exciting of primary campaigns.

9 Responses to It’s all down to Florida now

  1. anonymous un-RINO on January 20, 2012 at 7:36 am

    I’m still getting a chuckle at you floundering around on this, Poli.

    First, only 2 days ago, Willard is the “overwhelming favorite”, 99.999999% certain to win (to 14 stunningly accurate decimal places like you and your intrepid leftist buddy Silver had statistically worked out, with all due mathematical certainty), but now suddenly it’s all over and you’re scurrying to downplay expectations.

    That’s just a hoot. 😉

  2. MikeN on January 20, 2012 at 7:44 am

    Thing is, winning South Carolina would change the default position. Polls may very well show Newt leading in Florida after a win in South Carolina. Romney has the money but he hasn’t sealed the deal with Republicans, the only reason Newt has a chance to begin with. How much money is Romney prepared to spend in Florida? Hopefully lots since its a winner take all primary.

  3. unclefred on January 20, 2012 at 11:10 am

    Poli —
    According to a senior Gallup editor Mitt Romney’s lead is collapsing all across the country.

    He didn’t win Iowa, he is behind in SC and I predict that the FL numbers in collapse after the first FL debate if not before. Guess he can’t afford to skip those FL debates anymore eh?

  4. MikeN on January 20, 2012 at 11:25 am

    If Mitt had accepted the offer of a 1on1 debate with Gingrich he wouldn’t be in this trouble. Voters saw weakness.

    Wishful thinking title–It’s all down to Florida now–Trying to declare victory when 4% of delegates are selected. So if Romney loses Florida, are you going to post that he should drop out of the race? After all it’s all down to Florida. No reason for anyone to continue after that.

  5. anonymous un-RINO on January 20, 2012 at 3:00 pm

    Yeah, Willard’s in freefall right now. He’s about to drop down to Gallup 25, his historical crapweasel level.

    That’s the same 25% level, all of it RINOs, that he’s been at since forever, other than that brief little boomlet since December when he pounded Gingrich to dust with millions in negative advertising in Iowa.

    Willard has made a massive mistake on these tax returns, because now EVERYBODY suspects he’s hiding something. And when he dodges and attacks the Left, it just raises everybody’s suspicions even more.

    This guy says Willard is already finished because of this issue. If what he says it true, Willard is a dead man walking right now:

    I’d wondered why Bill Kristol had held out from supporting Willard. He’s usually a down the line RINO hack, but he’s kept hope alive for another candidate to jump in, and is calling for that today. I’m thinking he knows the inside dirt on Willard, and knows it’s eventually gonna break. You may depend Tax Cheat Timmy is gonna have Willard’s tax returns on Axlerod’s desk for review. They’re probably already there.

    Willard needs to release everything, asap. Even dumb RINOs should agree with that.

  6. MikeN on January 21, 2012 at 1:44 am

    25% in a 4 man race…

    Kristol is not fully supporting Romney because Romney came out against the surge, and is not supporting the Iraq War now.

  7. kellsbells on January 21, 2012 at 10:34 am

    In the Panhandle, the buzz is Newt and Paul….

  8. itsagreatcountry on January 22, 2012 at 8:20 pm

    Good God, let’s hope the Panhandle is wrong.

  9. itsagreatcountry on January 22, 2012 at 8:25 pm

    How that abrasive idiot, Gingrich, won South Carolina is one of those things that just don’t make sense. Here’s a guy who couldn’t possibly warm the cockles of anyone’s heart winning because– why? I realize that Romney hasn’t really done a great job of selling himself or answering questions. But Gingrich? They guy who wants to give the U.S. to illegal aliens (foreign nationals), and the guy who has the worst personality and the most baggage going? It just goes to prove that the “wannabe” conservatives in the Republican Party just keep shooting themselves in the foot, nominating one horrible candidate after another. Gingrich is more the mirror image of McCain than Romney ever was. And if nominated, he will prove just that.