Election results in the South are presaging what is to come nationally:
In the November election, Democrats got around 25 percent of the white vote in Georgia, about 10 percentage points shy of what they need to be competitive in statewide races if they get a large African-American turnout, Abramowitz said. [emphasis mine.]
Unfortunately (for the nation, but fortunately for Republicans), I think an increasingly monolithic white vote will be a feature of future elections across the country, as Democrats cater more and more to their core racial constituencies.
That’s why the Midwest went so overwhelmingly Republican in 2010.
Every time Obama defends illegal immigrants, he sends more white voters fleeing into the arms of the GOP.
David Paul Kuhn has written about this phenomenon more extensively:
Democrats’ white problems stretch back nearly a half-century. Political white flight changed course with the implosion of George W. Bush’s presidency, the Republican Party and the economy in September 2008.
Today, it’s almost as if none of that ever came to pass. Democrats’ bad old days are back, and in an especially bad way.
Republicans won whites in Tuesday’s national House vote by a 22-percentage point margin (60 to 38 percent) according to exit polls. In 2006, Republicans won whites by a mere 4 points.
Democrats’ problems with whites reflect whites’ problems with Obama. Whites’ support for Democrats in 2010 roughly matches the president’s standing prior to the September 2008 crash. Before the crash, Obama polled like earlier Democratic nominees with whites. After the crash, Obama earned the support of more white men than any other Democrat since 1976. He also improved with white women, winning a traditional share for Democrats.
Those gains are gone. Obama’s approval rating with whites has declined from the low 60s (week one) to the high 30s (this week).