Charlie Cook: GOP Could Gain 7 Seats From Redistricting

December 17, 2010

Charlie Cook analyzes 2012 reapportionment and redistricting, and comes up with a much more pessimistic estimate than RCP’s Sean Trende.

We’ll just have to wait for the reapportionment numbers to be released on Tuesday, and the states to redistrict over the next two years, to see how things end up.

Here’s a succinct comparison of Cook’s analysis with Trende’s:

10 Responses to Charlie Cook: GOP Could Gain 7 Seats From Redistricting

  1. ATTILA on December 17, 2010 at 3:10 pm

    Whatever cook says double it.

  2. Mad Dog on December 17, 2010 at 4:14 pm

    Take the two and average them = 11 net gain for the GOP. Not too shabby, I’d say.

  3. Bill H on December 17, 2010 at 5:17 pm

    This doe snot makea lot of sense. For instance both show the Dem’s losing a seat in Louisiana. There is only one Dem seat and that oneis a Voting right act seat and it is not going to be eliminated. The Dems control redistricting in illinois but both analysts show the Dem’s losing two seats. that also does not make any sense. The GOP is oging to lose the seat that will be eliminated and maybe lose 1 other seats. I also dont see the GOP gaining a seat in Michigain. Some of these ratings just do not make sense.

  4. PoliPundit on December 17, 2010 at 6:12 pm

    Actually, they both show Republicans losing 1 seat in Louisiana and 2 seats in Illinois. Please look more closely at the table.

  5. anonymous un-RINO on December 17, 2010 at 6:59 pm

    Yeah, Michigan will lose a House seat, and it will be a D seat, but executing a pickup on top of that will be a tough get. Possible, yes, but then they could drop one of their current seats as well, almost just as easily.

    But overall, yeah, I could see the R’s picking up 15 seats across the country, as they control so many state governments.

    One thing’s for sure. They’re going to round up all of the urban lefty districts into cattle pens. They’ll go 70-30 left, in many cases. I don’t see the Left breaking 200 House seats for another decade, after this redistricting.

  6. Mad Dog on December 17, 2010 at 7:06 pm

    anonymous un-Rino, I hope you’re right. There is a chance the GOP which will 100% control redistricting in Michigan can both force the Demoncraps to absorb the loss of one seat Michigan faces in reapportionment and then force the remaining Demoncraps into fewer safe seats so the GOP would have a reasonable chance, although not an absolute lock, on picking up one additional seat (the 2013-2014 Michigan U.S. House delegation would then be 10 GOP, 4 Demoncraps).

  7. MikeN on December 17, 2010 at 7:30 pm

    Cook’s analysis looks more reasonable at first glance and when reading the article.

    Just looking at the differences, we see that according to Cook, Republicans can be expected to do worse in Democratic states, and vice versa.

    The other big difference is Texas. Cook’s analysis is more plausible, Republicans have already maxed out and hold a vast majority of seats there. Is it likely they can get 4 more? Reading RCP’s article, I don’t see where Sean Trende says Republicans gain 4.

  8. Mad Dog on December 18, 2010 at 5:51 am

    Cook doesn’t have that great of a track record, so I think my approach of averaging the two to get a net GOP gain of 11 through redistricting is better than accepting what Cook says.

  9. MikeN on December 18, 2010 at 7:30 am

    Trende may be closer in California. Didn’t they pass some sort of neutral redistricting commission? This could make things better for Republicans, though the last redistricting amounted to incumbent protection, rather than a Democrat advantage.

  10. Mad Dog on December 18, 2010 at 8:41 am

    That’s my understanding, about California.