Parsing The Votes
The Hill’s whip count shows 37 Democrats leaning against Obamacare, with just one more needed to kill the bill.
But which of these Democrats are likely to be “persuaded” to vote Yes? I count three:
Jerry Costello (Ill.) * (Y) Told the Akron Telegraph March 14 that White House and leadership “bungled” healthcare reform. Most of the calls, e-mails and letters he has received have advised a no vote. Says he opposes Senate bill, but doesn’t sound like an absolute no
Luis Gutierrez (Ill.) (Y) Citing immigration language, Gutierrez said on MSNBC that “I can’t support this bill.” Lawmaker has lambasted the president on not moving immigration reform yet. Warned that other Hispanic lawmakers will also vote no
Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) (N) Progressive was on the fence before House vote last fall. He has said he is a firm no this time around. An undeterred President Barack Obama publicly called on him to back the bill on March 15 and gave him a ride on Air Force One
So we’re down to 34, and we need 4 more Democrats to vote No.
Where do we find them? Well, look at the list of Democrats who voted No last time around, and are running for re-election:
Jason Altmire (Pa.) * (N) Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told McClatchy he is targeting Altmire, who many view as key to passage. Altmire said on Fox News he has an “open mind.” Voted no in committee and on floor, but bottom line is his yes vote is gettable.
John Boccieri (Ohio) * (N) In a bad sign for the White House, Boccieri did not appear with President Barack Obama at his March 15 speech in Ohio. Boccieri, a GOP target, told Foxnews.com, “I’m not afraid to cast a tough vote…” Clyburn has publicly said he is leaning on Boccieri, whose vote could go a long way in determining whether healthcare reform will pass
Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.) (N) President Obama urges her to vote yes in the Oval Office, according to March 16 AP report
Betsy Markey (Colo.) (N) Was a late no last time. In early March, Markey declined to be interviewed by Denver Post on her position on bill. Likely target for Democratic leaders
Glenn Nye (Va.) (N) In toss-up race
If we convince 4 of these 5 Democrats to vote No this time as well, we will have killed Obamacare. But what Pelosi manages to peel off 2 or more of these Democrats? Well then we move on to the following, and get just one of them to vote No:
Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.) * (Y) GOP target. Her yes vote could be key to passage. Strong backer of Stupak language
Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) * (Y) Senate hopeful who is big supporter of Stupak language
Baron Hill (Ind.) * (Y) Passed up Senate run
Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) * (Y) Voted against bill in committee, and for it on the House floor
John Tanner (Tenn.) * (N) House deputy whip not running for reelection, but he still will need to be convinced to get to yes. Voted no in committee and on floor
It’s close. But I think we have an easier hill to climb than Pelosi does.
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March 18th, 2010 at 7:51 pm
Non-sarcastic remark: you’d make a fortune as a political consultant if you went into that line of work.
But whatever you do, I’m glad you do this blog on the side.