Senator Ben Nelson (D-NE) will offer up an abortion amendment very similar to the Stupak amendment in the House. The amendment will inevitably fail to get the 60 votes needed, and that will mean Nelson will join a filibuster of the entire bill.
Counting Nelson and Lieberman, plus all Republicans, that’s 42 votes to filibuster. Even if we lose Olympia Snowe, that’s still 41 votes. I don’t see how Harry Reid can thread this needle.