Make Your Predictions!
By PoliPundit ~ November 2nd, 2009 @ 10:24 pm
Tuesday is election day, in four key races that are essentially a referendum on the Obama presidency. Click Comments and make your final predictions!
For perspective, here’s Obama’s margin of victory in the four key races:
| Obama ’08 Margin | ’09 Polls | |
| Virginia | +6 | Latest Polls |
| New Jersey | +15 | Latest Polls |
| NY-23 | +5 | Latest Polls |
| CA-10 | +31 | Latest Polls |
Based on the latest polls, all these races will show a swing of 10-20 percentage points (!!) away from the Democrats since 2008.
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November 1st, 2009 at 12:37 pm
I don’t want to jinx it.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Hoffman wins. McDonnell wins. Dems win Ca 10,just too liberal of a district.
Corzine wins. Sadly.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Dede has endorsed Owens. Makes Newt and gang look even worse.
November 1st, 2009 at 1:09 pm
In the current environment, the only real “upset” in these 4 elections would be if Corzine was to lose, as it would imply that even in squalidly corrupt NJ, the people rejected his incompetence. The other 3 will go as they’re polling, I’d say, with Virginia being the bellwether for the country.
November 1st, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Wondering how to react to the Scuzzabagga endorsement. Already heckled Douche Gingrich about it on Twitter.
Initial thought is that it won’t matter much as it’s obviously a spiteful move by a bitter leftist. But not sure the 15% Dede supporters will see it the same way.
November 1st, 2009 at 3:12 pm
This can’t be true! OakLeaf predicted it would all be different……
November 1st, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Dem poll with unweighted numbers….
How would weighting change the poll? Isn’t this an R district, about 60%? So weighting is not going to help Owens’ numbers…
November 1st, 2009 at 3:14 pm
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-ny-23-mess.html
November 1st, 2009 at 3:18 pm
That RINO cow’s endorsement could only hurt Hoffman, so it’s best if she endorses the other lefty. If she’d wanted to help Hoffman, she should have stayed in the race and split the lefty vote.
November 1st, 2009 at 3:51 pm
Yeah, the elections are a “referendum” on Obama’s presidency….LMAO boobs.
November 1st, 2009 at 4:22 pm
It turns out Hoffman is a devotee of Glenn Beck’s and has signed sort of manifesto or something.
November 1st, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Looks like the WaPo is waving the white flag in Virginia:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/31/AR2009103101939.html
The WaPo went months shrieking that this guy was an extremist, and now suddenly they’re shrieking that he’s a “centrist” and that that’s why he’s gonna win.
And presumably after he wins, the WaPo’s next line is gonna be that he needs to do what THEY think he should do: Govern as a lefty kook.
Because, afterall, everybody knows he campaigned and won as a “centrist”, because the WaPo said so, even though up until a day ago the kooky leftist WaPo said he was an extremist.
And these old media kooks actually wonder why the mainstream of the country thinks they’re lower than whalesh!t.
November 1st, 2009 at 4:59 pm
And the Aura of Truthiness said:
“Blah, blah, blah…kook…mainstream…blah, blah…shriek…”
November 1st, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Aura of Truthiness has gone all hope-y and change-y.
November 1st, 2009 at 6:22 pm
This lady is a poor loser. The party spends 900,000 on her so she can endorse the dems.
November 1st, 2009 at 8:46 pm
McDonnell in a walk in VA.
Christie will lose in NJ, too damn corrupt, and too many stupid voters-those idiots would vote in the moldering remains of Jeffery Dahlmer if a “D” was next to them on the ballot.
NY-23 I will go on a limb and say Hoffman wins a close one. Polls are pretty spotty lately, but if they were close between Hoffman and Owens in the leadup, Scozzawhatabitch’s dropping out (followed by classless showing her colors endorsement of Owens) should enrage the base enough to push Hoffman over the top. The majority of her support was the R over D crowd- she just ended her career as a republican. GOOD RIDDANCE.
California- Dems win that. Republican Party in CA is screwed from dysfunctional leadership, no clear positions, no real difference on issues, etc. Arnie has been a disaster. They haven’t had a good man running the show since Reagan. look for another cheerleader for the ClusterFoxtrot we have as our most popular state winning office.
November 1st, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Yes. Califronia’s GOP is very similar to Illinois. The RINO’s like former Gov.Ryan(now in prison)ruined the party. We had the governor’s mansion from 1979-03,but all were RINO’s. George Ryan was basically endorsed by Daley when he ran for governor. Now,in 2010 we are poised to pick a 100% pro-planned parenthood,gun control supporting,cap and trade voting Mark Kirk as our candidate for senate.
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:25 am
My prediction is that Oak Leaf and the rest of the weepy leg-tinglers will still find a way to blame Bush/Cheney/Halliburton…
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:25 am
I predict that Oak Leaf will remain an extreme liberal and Obama sycophant. I further predict that despite Poli claiming that this site has a “conservative bent”, he will continue to allow Oak Leaf to post his Left wing rants here.
For God’s sake, Poli, please ban Oak Leaf once and for all. Its not fair to your loyal readers to keep him.
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:46 am
Nyaaah, Oak Leaf is redeemable. He’s just in that dead zone right now, wherein he understands that Republicans are miserable pieces of sh!t collectively, so they should be collectively shunned, in favor of conservatives. However, shunning RINOs doesn’t mean embracing leftists, which is the mistake some make, and he appears to be making. The RINOs and the Left are basically one and the same, as we see from Scuzzydumbfuqq in NY. We need to put the boots to both, and that’s what the mainstream of the country is doing right now.
But to be redeemed, Oak has to stop cheerleading for the current fiscal policies of the RINO/Left majority, and REJECT them, because they are what will bring longterm harm to us.
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:50 am
Whistling past the graveyard? Please continue to do so…
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:12 am
gerry and friends.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:49 am
Obama looks like he isn’t long for this world. Check him out on Drudge. Looks even more sickly and weak than usual. Must be back on the cigs or the coke.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:56 am
Where are Steele and muckety mucks…..They should be on ground with Christie……fighting ACORN and dirty tricks….lawyer up now….not a redo of MINN.
Call Steele this a.m……
Conservatives are striking back….tea parties are the heart taking ind. and dems. with us……yeah
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:27 am
Hey, IC: remember that called Obama “skinny” is racist!
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:45 am
Virginis, NY and NJ Trifecta on Tuesday night. The fact that Christie is tied or ahead in NJ is excellent. The Republican in NJ races, win or lose, usually picks up a few points over the last polls because of oversampling in cities (ie. Democratic victory margins are rarely as large as polls say they will be). Also, the rural area returns come in later so watch Christie to make up ground as the night progresses.
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:51 am
Check out Obama on Drudge. He is starting to resemble Kim Kong Ill.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:26 am
How sweet to have Obama campaigning for Corzine, for Corzine to spend his personal fortune on heavy negative ads, and for all to end up with (likely) a loss for all liberal Democrats in and associated witrh the race. Indeed, a trifecta is in the making.
Thinking happy thoughts…
November 2nd, 2009 at 12:28 pm
EU to police drivers with black boxes.
THE European Union is drawing up plans for aircraft-style black box recorders to be fitted to all cars to help the police identify who is responsible for crashes. A £2.4m, three-year study commissioned by the European commission’s transport arm has recommended the mandatory installation of the boxes in all cars. They will record 20 types of data, including speed, the car’s most recent movements and whether the driver braked or indicated.
The information will be used by police and insurance firms to reconstruct crashes and determine who was at fault. It could then be used in court cases. Insurers would be able to expose bogus claimants by checking their account of an accident against what really happened. Researchers believe the technology will improve safety. The study, called Project Veronica, found drivers with black boxes were 10% less likely to be involved in a fatal accident, and their repair bills fell by as much as 25%.
November 2nd, 2009 at 12:34 pm
Judge Rules Your E-Mail is Not Private, Government Can Read It Without Telling You
November 2nd, 2009 at 12:37 pm
The proposition 1 race on Maine is one of the most interesting races going on.
Maine may be the first state to reject a gay marriage ban.
November 2nd, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Scott Horton (of antiwar.com) interviews Scot Horton (of nocomment blog from Harper’s magazine.
November 2nd, 2009 at 1:01 pm
GOP takes VA 59-41, NJ 47-44-9 and NY-23 54-46…. The media will spin it, but make no mistake. Conservatism will win tomorrow.
November 2nd, 2009 at 2:53 pm
NYC Steve:
“The media will spin it”
Its already started.
“GOP victory Tuesday won’t erase party’s problems” (courtesy of AP news)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091102/ap_on_el_ge/us_election_rdp
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:18 pm
HopeGrenade?
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:30 pm
GOP victory Tuesday won’t erase party’s problems.
Let me translate that for you in non-spin terms:
GOP victory Tuesday won’t erase party’s problems.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:32 pm
But to be redeemed, Oak has to stop cheerleading for the current fiscal policies of the RINO/Left majority, and REJECT them, because they are what will bring longterm harm to us.
You’ve been hitting the crack pipe if you think OL is redeemable. When you warn conservatives not to have any hope of regaining the majority, or come out for socialist health care and carbon caps as Oak has, which are the pinnacle of leftist-progessive meddling, you are not redeemable.
Oak Leaf is a liberal democrat, plain and simple. Not one post critical of Ogabe in a year.
Screw im, and the horse he rode in on.
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:32 pm
oh, I wondered…
November 2nd, 2009 at 3:57 pm
Screw im, and the horse he rode in on
Beastiality must be the theme of the day for the right wing nutters, what with Rush referring to sex with RINOS.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:11 pm
rhetorical dodges are all you have left, eh? Get used to that, and enjoy the time you have left until 2010, to bash the country into an unrecognizable mess with your hammer and sickle.
you gdlc.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:25 pm
Whatever you say, Hayden Lake Captain America.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:52 pm
ah yes. The inevitable “racist-sexist-bigot-homophobe!” references….
Well of course. Anyone who does not embrace government diktat in all areas of life, can be nothing else right? Those damned “inalienable rights”, eh?
heh.
You gdlcs are all so predictable. Hilarious that after a generation forgets what fascism’s really like, it takes only a year of leftists in power to remind them how detestable and anti-human it really is, eh?
Life
Liberty
freedom in pursuit of happiness, aka “property” ……
Get used to it, you can’t stop it, even if your nazi-care passes.
You gdlc…
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:54 pm
I hope Drew Brees gets defeated tonight. I don’t want that guy winning MVP or homefield advantage in the playoffs.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:07 pm
RWY is the type that responded to the Nov 2008 election by buying ammunition.
How’s that going?
even if your nazi-care passes.
ah yes, the inevitable nazi/marxist/stalinist references.
Hilarious that after a generation forgets what fascism’s really like, it takes only a year of leftists in power to remind them how detestable and anti-human it really is, eh?
If you are a right wing tin foil hat (In this style 10/6) nutter, which you are.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:11 pm
The Pakistanis gave Bush-Cheney a bunch of bogus prisoners to put in GITMO so that’s why Bush didn’t want them getting habeas corpus.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Oak Leaf can kiss my ass!
GOP wins in VA; Cons wins in NY
Corzine wins in NJ
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:16 pm
”Not a single one of these confessions are legitimate”
So we have goat herders, taxi drivers and some Kuwaiti vacationers at GITMO. 80% probably have nothing to do with the Al Qaeda, and that percent is after they’ve already released a large number of people.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:18 pm
The problem for you, gdlc, is that your crew is the one openly channeling Mao, as clearly demonstrated on many occasions, but you won’t hear anyone on our side doing so with any of the supremacist lot, for example.
You can straw dog to your little Marxist heart’s content, gdlc, but we are the one with the quotes to back it up, and your side? Sadly, no!
So, just let the chips fall, and stop trying to win your losing arguments with your Hayden Lake nonsense.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Oh, WBH. I thought that was you.
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:34 pm
your crew is the one openly channeling Mao, as clearly demonstrated on many occasions
Damn, you can run at the mouth with your paranoid conspiracy theories. Weren’t you going to move somewhere with your newly purchased ammunition? Where did you move?
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Never you mind, gdlc, never you mind. Again, nice rhetorical dodge, btw…
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Damn, you can run at the mouth with your paranoid conspiracy theories.
Wait. What geographical region did you cite moments ago?….
Oh yes, Hayden Lake. Now, would you care to repeat the charge of paranoia, gdlc?
November 2nd, 2009 at 5:40 pm
right wing yahoo = closet sodomite!
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:49 pm
Rand Paul gives a speech on the Patriot Act and debt.
Part 1 and Part 2 and Part 3
November 2nd, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Doug Hoffman: I have good mentors here.
Glenn Beck: Wait, wait. Wait, wait. Are they mentors that will show…
Hoffman: I’M TALKING ABOUT YOU, GLENN.
Beck: Oh, okay. I was going to say all right, as long as they are standing out from the shadows. [...]
Hoffman: No. Yeah, well, I’m going to keep in touch with people like you so I don’t get infected with that disease.
November 2nd, 2009 at 7:10 pm
“Beastiality must be the theme of the day for the right wing nutters, what with Rush referring to sex with RINOS.”
Pluto, you are such a hypocrite — don’t you recall you always waking me up for service? Why do liberals always use projection to deflect what they don’t like about themselves?
November 2nd, 2009 at 8:24 pm
Pluto – “Beastiality must be the theme of the day for the right wing nutters, what with Rush referring to sex.”
Pluto with lots of crazy emotional talk. That’s a good omen. Looks like the Republicans will be administering the Libs a a big smack-down tomorrow.
November 2nd, 2009 at 9:00 pm
Doug Hoffman: I have good mentors here.
Yeh, Glen Beck the torMENTOR of donks and rinos. Animal cruelty and common sense at it’s best. All bad for rinos and donks.
November 2nd, 2009 at 10:27 pm
GOP wins all but the California race.
And Oak Leaf is a blessing to this place…few of you guys have been here as long as he has or as served your country as he has.
Some of you newbies make me laugh. Oak was is a valued and important part of this blog…those that criticize him confuse being conservative with Kool-Aid drinkers.
November 2nd, 2009 at 11:33 pm
Albert Hodges – “Oak was is a valued and important part of this blog…those that criticize him confuse being conservative with Kool-Aid drinkers.”
LOL….apparently “Conservative” is for cap and trade, massive deficit spending and Obamacare now.
And OakLeaf’s contribution? The Republicans would take a bath at the polls for not supporting Obama? Who can forget the “tears of joy”, “I’m a Pepper” and “thank God the Recession’s over” posts. Or that courageous prediction that we should buy into a market that had already corrected 50%? He’s pretty clueless when it comes to politics and has a great grasp of the obvious when it comes to markets. And he refuses to admit when he is wrong. He is already trying to recalibrate his political prediction from “the Republicans will suffer at the polls” to “the Republicans will not get the majority”. You got to admit, he’s hardly an authority!……..As for his contribution to the site….. I also remember the popularity and accolades for this site before he made it his mission to dismantle it. Joke Leaf is a blessing in the kind of way that beating cancer is a blessing. Sure its fun to beat him senseless but it would be better to not have it in the first place.
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:55 am
“When you warn conservatives not to have any hope of regaining the majority, or come out for socialist health care and carbon caps as Oak has, which are the pinnacle of leftist-progessive meddling, you are not redeemable.”
.
.
.
.
How about if you screech approvingly for ethanol welfare, and drive up our cost of food, fuel and government spending, and corrupt our national politics with your communist mandates? Are you redeemable, Comrade Ethanolov?
How about you advocating handing cash to the banks and UAW and Big 3 idiots? Does that make you redeemable, Comrade Bailoutovich?
How about supporting a corrupt Beltway pig named McLiar? Does that count, Comrade RINOCHEV?
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:09 am
Yeh, Glen Beck the torMENTOR of donks and rinos.
Isn’t it supposed to be Glen (((Beck))), (((BCL)))?
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:15 am
Purge the party of the ideologically impure RHINOs.
(((Beck))) meets (((Pol Pot))).
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:19 am
Prediction:
The GOP wins big today and next year.
But they will not fix our trillion dollar deficit/spending problems.
Which means, this country will soon fail.
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:39 am
Oak Leaf can still kiss my ass. He supports Obama-sama and his communists/sodomites.
This site used to be a haven for sound conservative views – now because of Oak & Poli its a festering sore of apologia and delusion!
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:11 am
THE NY23 call center was EMPTY at 8:30pm last night – E-M-P-T-Y
ENOUGH SAID – IT IS UP TO US – GET INVOLVED – FIRE THEM ALL – Start with Michael “Hip Hop” Steele
Redstate.com LOOK IT UP
November 3rd, 2009 at 7:16 am
My prediction is that John Boehner won’t get his $5,000 donation to Scozzafava returned.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:23 am
Remember, remember the 3rd of November …
Conservatism, tea-parties, and plot
The liberals will say …
“‘Tis not Obama referendum day” …
But they shake in their boots alot !
November 3rd, 2009 at 10:23 am
McDonnell —> +20
Christie——-> +3
Hoffman——> +5
CA – 10 ——> Dem win +2
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:52 am
The gaffe prone Trey Grayson posts pictures of face painted robbers on his facebook.
November 3rd, 2009 at 11:52 am
***UPDATE*** 9:45 am: Apparently Grayson has now pulled the post down from his FaceBook page.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:00 pm
At least one area criticalfor Corzine is showing lower-than-needed turnout for him.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Good day for gold.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Tom Woods goes on Antiwar radio.
November 3rd, 2009 at 12:40 pm
yessir … Gold and Silver cranking it up …. setting up for the Stage 2 run.
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:06 pm
McCain advisers recount how they prevented Palin from giving a concession speech. When she found out what was happening, an incensed Carla Eudy called [Palin advisor Jason] Recher to express her displeasure. “You never had control of her,” she said, according to Recher. “Get control of her! Get her ass off stage!”
On the “Early Show” on CBS, authors Scott Conroy and Shushannah Walshe said Tuesday there was a “remarkable internal war” at the end of the campaign between Palin and McCain’s teams when the VP candidate was told she could not deliver a concession speech. “Governor Palin tried to create some confusion” so that she would be able to speak, but she ultimately failed. “It really turned into an all-out civil war,” Walshe said. On election night, Palin went back out onstage to take pictures with her family and McCain’s staff was so terrified that she would give a speech after all that they turned out the lights on her.
According to a copy of the book obtained by Huffington Post, when senior McCain aide Carla Eudy heard the news, she immediately called campaign manager Steve Schmidt, who barked, “Take the set down. Unplug it.”
The McCain staff didn’t believe Palin’s claim that she just wanted to take pictures with her family on stage – to one aide, it sounded like a “dubious cover story.”
Even as the stage crew dimmed the lights, Palin and family stood there and waved at the dwindling crowd.
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:10 pm
McDonnell —> +15
Christie——-> +1
Hoffman——> +10
CA – 10 ——> Dem win +8
MSM spin: Obama wins!
November 3rd, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Another View of the War of 1812
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:11 pm
Huffpost headline: Turnout Higher Than Expected In Maine — Good News For Gay Marriage.
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:39 pm
New Kentucky Polling.
Rand Paul takes the lead in latest Survey USA polling. Not looking so hot for Trey Grayson!
November 3rd, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Even as the stage crew dimmed the lights, Palin and family stood there and waved at the dwindling crowd.
Baloney, I was there. It was outside. Palin looked like she was going to speak. She said a few words and then she left the stage. Then McCain gave his congratulatory speech which pissed off the crowd. Later Palin and family came back out on stage with McCains and they all stood there. After they left the stage the crowd started leaving to beat the traffic out of there. They weren’t standing there in the dark waving at a dwindling crowd. There were media lights and area lights as well as stage lights. The place was all lit up. It was held at a resort hotel.
The concession speech was to be done on an outside green area in front of a select few while we all stood in the banquet room. Then they told the crowd we all could go out there, so we took a short cut through the bushes and got up front, only to have our view blocked by the media. People we talked to and overheard were all there to see Palin, not McCain.
November 3rd, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Christie +2
Hoffman+6
McDonnell +22
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:03 pm
Polls have closed in Maine. 0 of 605 (0 %) of precincts have been reported.
Streaming results.
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:32 pm
from the office of
The John McCain Campaign: The Palin Report
Unpredictable √
Erratic √
Uncooperative √
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:44 pm
Gay Rights event steaming live.
It’s either a celebration party or a consolation party. Not sure yet.
November 3rd, 2009 at 5:45 pm
Let’s Not Mention That:
“The John McCain Campaign: The Palin Report
Unpredictable √
Erratic √
Uncooperative √”
I’d say that pretty much describes the treatment Sarah Palin received from the McCain camp.
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:22 pm
The weepy leg-tinglers apparently have managed to transform their Bush Derangement Syndrome to Beck Derangement Syndrome…
Whodathunkit?
President Clinton in the middle of the Lewinsky Scandal apparently had a better effect on undecided/independent voters than President Obama does less than a year after taking the oath…
Maybe BHO will be bringing back “Hope” to _Conservatives_ who will then make a substantial “Change” in 2010?
June 30th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
Always check for yourself. Check out
Glenn Beck Books at GlennBeckBooks.org