Strategery
Far be it from me to help the Democrats succeed. But I contend that:
1. There is a way for them to pass ObamaCare.
2. Whether it passes or not, the political consequences will be negative for Democrats.
First, on passage: the main obstacle is the public option. House liberals insist on it, the Senate cannot pass it. So here’s what the Omaninions could do:
1. Give Olympia Snowe whatever she wants, and get the bill through the Senate. This will be a bill with co-ops, rather than a public option.
2. Pass a bill in the House with everything the liberals want, including the public option.
3. Take the bill to a House-Senate conference, and change the co-ops/public option to a public option with a trigger.
4. Browbeat conservative and liberal Democrats in the House and Senate to vote for this bill. They can plausibly claim that they voted for the public option and against it (because of the trigger.)
Now, for the political consequences:
1. If Democrats pass ObamaCare, they will have used up so much political ammunition that it will be impossible to pass bills such as Cap-And-Tax and Immigration Amnesty. This will further dishearten their liberal base, which would already have been disheartened by the compromise on the public option. All the way to the 2010 elections, the Democrats will rush hither and thither to bail out Wall Street, while losing on all their domestic priorities. With a disheartened base and an enraged opposition, they will be crushed in the 2010 elections.
2. If Democrats fail to pass ObamaCare, the same things will happen.
This can’t be pleasant for them.
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September 15th, 2009 at 5:17 am
It really makes you wonder why Obama pushed so much so quickly. While a great speaker he, and his White House, don’t seem to know how to play the political game. Much like the republicans the last few years.
September 15th, 2009 at 6:50 am
Obama and the current Congress are merely placeholders, as the country transitions. They have no real support from the mainstream, so they’ll flounder, as we’re seeing. The mainstream rejects both they and their RINO predecessors, a not unexpected rejection, as they’re both doing the same things. All of this is predictable, as a required process of rational choosing and information gathering, before we move into a more lasting period of governmental choices. The last 10-12 years have limited our choices, clearly, but we still have some. We’ll move towards some fiscal sanity, because we have to do so, but too bad we couldn’t have done so by choice, when we had the chance.
September 15th, 2009 at 6:59 am
Democrats have indeed worked themselves into a box over health care reform.
If they fail – as the country now wants – to pass a takeover bill, their left will be furious and possibly thrown out of office. If they pass the thing anyway, they will almost certainly be removed as well.
They have no one but the slick talking President and the hard-left Pelosi/Hoyer group to thank. Good luck to ‘em on this one.
(here is a piece on Obama as ‘The Music Man” http://www.conservativeblog.thewebinfocenter.com/ )
Slick talking snake oil salesman only last so long!
September 16th, 2009 at 7:38 am
They can cram it through via “reconciliation”.