2010 Looking Good
By PoliPundit ~ September 10th, 2009 @ 11:48 am
Analyst Larry Sabato:
After examining all 435 House races for 2010, the Crystal Ball projects that Republicans will gain between 20 and 30 seats. While this is nothing to sneeze at, especially given that it would be the largest gain for congressional Republicans since 1994, it still puts them short of the 40 seat pick-up they need to take back the House.
In total, 70 Democratic-held seats are competitive, while only 34 Republican seats are as endangered.
(via Political Wire)
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September 10th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
Sabato is whistling past the graveyard. This election is shaping up as a wipeout.
Unpopular president, unpopular Congress, poor economy, massive corruption in the ruling party, all in an offyear election, when the lefty potsmokers will be too stoned to show up at the polls, even as senior citizens show up in massive numbers to punish the Death Panel advocates.
20 seats? Please. That’s the MINIMUM number. But that would still be enough to sink the good ship Pelosi, particularly if accompanied by a few Senate takeovers.
This election has the potential to go big for the Republicans, not that they deserve it, because they’re truly idiots. But, they’ll win big despite themselves, because the Left are governing like clowns.
If we can talk that idiot Waxman into pushing for a gun-grabbing vote next year, it’s possible the Left will lose as many as 100 seats in 2010. I’m not joking… a 100 seat takeaway is possible, and Cali kook gun-grabbing would be the surest ticket to that.
September 10th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
I agree with the Aura of Truthiness!
Democratic analysts like Sabato, Cook and Rothenberg drastically underestimate potential Republican gains in 2010. Democrats are headed for an electoral catastrophe unlike anything seen in the past fifty years. The Democratic party lost 54 House seats in 1994 with a booming economy and a very gifted politician in the White House. It will be nearly impossible to hold their losses to 20 or 30 seats with double digit unemployment, trillion dollar deficits, rising foreclosures, nationalized healthcare, escalating taxes, loss of independents and a furiously energized Republican base!
September 10th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Hmmm . . . it appears that the Democrat’s Progressive Caucus seats are the most safe. I wonder why that is.
September 10th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
McCain lashes out at Chief Justice Roberts.
September 10th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Hmmm . . . it appears that the Democrat’s Progressive Caucus seats are the most safe. I wonder why that is.~~LNMT
Because they are socialists, representing socialists.
September 10th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Don’t kid yourself… Pelosi’s seat is HARDLY safe. If she doesn’t confirm that she’s the kookiest kook in the kookhouse, and do so on a daily basis, then the San Francisco kooks will elect an even KOOKIER kook.
That’s why she’s been scrambling to get out in front of that story about her knowing about the waterboarding, before it went on. If the SF kooks ever figure out that the CIA briefed her beforehand, those kooks might take away her magic kook decoder ring.
September 10th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
God Lied?
I love that caption.
September 10th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
Maybe Wilson should have thrown one of those Iraqi shoes?
September 10th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Hmmm . . . it appears that the Democrat’s Progressive Caucus seats are the most safe. I wonder why that is.
It’s called gerrymandering genius.
September 10th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Why does Human Events keep a Pat Buchanan archive but selectively delete the entries that they dislike?
Seems like overzealous censorship. Why not just let people read it and decide for themselves?
Human Events deletes Buchanan’s latest column as does MSNBC.
From the column “But Human Events does not have that excuse. In fact, Human Events regularly denounces the groups organizing the witch hunt.”
Also
“. Buchanan and Ann Coulter usually trade spots for the most popular columns on the site. Although several sites—such as VDARE.COM—carry Buchanan’s column online, when you click on “Pat Buchanan” at Drudge Report, you go straight to the Human Events archive.
How does Human Events return the favor? Whenever Buchanan says anything politically incorrect on certain subjects, it either trashes him or sends his columns down the memory hole. (Apart from anything else, this means the Human Events archive of Buchanan’s columns is incomplete—unlike VDARE.COM’s!)”
September 10th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
I’m usually somewhat cautious a year+ out but I’m with the Aura of Truthiness on this one. Got a strong suspicion that turnout by the Soft Left will be modest once they figure out Barry’s not running in ’10.
invalid10….WTF with the incessant spamming
September 11th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Spike, I have the Democrats losing 16-35 House seats in 2010 and in the Senate, the GOP picks-up Nevada and Connecticut, but I have a feeling that MO, NH, and OH are likely Democratic pick-ups.
On the governorships: the GOP picks-up the following:
1. Wyoming-it all depends on when Freudenthal makes up his damn mind.
2. Michigan (open)-with US Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI) taking back the Governor’s Mansion for the Republicans due to the unpopularity of disgraced Governor Jennifer Granholm (D) who SUCKS badly, she had zero business winning the governorship in 2002 and 2006.
3. Kansas (open)-with United States Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kansas).
4. Oklahoma (open)-with US Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK), however, 4-term OK State Attorney General Drew Edmondson (D) will give her a good fight in the general election so I expect the general election to be CLOSE.
5. Tennessee (open)-with US Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN) taking the oath on January 15, 2011.
6. Pennsylvania (open)-with PA State Attorney General Tom Corbett (R).
September 11th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
On Texas: Perry wins reelection to a 3rd full term in the governor’s mansion plain and simple because of heavy turnout among Evangelicals and die-hard conservatives, plus his anti-DC campaign is helping him against the FRAUD Kay Bailout, who from what I hear is running a HORRIBLE campaign.
Her Senate seat (in a likely special election in May 2010 or this November if she resigns before Sept. 28th) is going to be the one to watch over there since Houston Mayor Bill White (D) is super-wealthy and running an aggressive race against second-tier GOP candidates.
September 11th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
Anon Cal,
In Michigan, Hoekstra is a decent candidate, but is a creature of Washington, and Cox is better known locally and will have a better chance to be the Rep candidate. The Demos are sunk, particularly if they run the much hated Granholm’s understudy Cherry, so the Rep primary is likely to determine the next gov.
September 11th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Why can’t Michigan have other independent statewide elected offices like State Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, etc., ?
They really need more statewide jobs up there.
Texas has 29 statewide offices (governor, lieutenant governor, comptroller, state attorney general, general land office commissioner, agriculture commissioner, 3 member railroad commission, 9 member state supreme court, and 9 member court of criminal appeals.
September 11th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
Be careful what you ask for. Granholm was the elected state attorney general (unqualified, but catapulted into that position by the Wayne County political machine, which needed one of their own in that office to forestall corruption investigations ongoing at the time), and she then used the AG job to swing into the gov mansion. It was one of the biggest flukes in this state’s history that she got there.
Cox is the current AG, and he’s following the Granholm template to the gov mansion. He’s got some smarts, however, but he’s also connected politically, and wired into many groups, unlike Granholm, who had the teachers’ union and the lawyers only.
The current Secretary of State, Terri Lynn Land, is also running. She may have a chance to win it as well, as the SOS is statewide elected and she’s known from that.
We’ll have a good race and get a good governor this time, it appears.
Statewide elected officials are a mixed bag. Maybe some benefit but you pay a price as well. More political intrigue involved. That Texas RR commission is a political swamp as you likely know.
September 29th, 2009 at 9:52 am
I see the democrats loses a bit higher then 30. Its the economy stupid! If we are still above 9.5% unemployment, the dems get crushed.
October 24th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
LoL. If anyone thinks we the actual sane people of Michigan are going to elect that crazy Bushite, C-street patron,endtimer,short-earther–Hoekstra as governor you are truly moonbatty and as the party of ‘no’ ideas membership is often refered you are a person worthy of the title of ‘wingnut’.