The Nuclear Option
Do Democrats have 51 votes in the US Senate to use the nuclear “budget reconciliation” option to ram through healthcare “reform?” Assuming that every Republican would vote against such a nuclear option, Democrats cannot afford to lose more than 10 of their own votes (VP Biden would break a 50-50 tie.)
Let’s see what some Democrat senators think about the nuclear option:
Robert Byrd (D-WV): “An outrage!”
Joseph Lieberman (I-CT):: “A real mistake.”
Kent Conrad (D-ND): “Swiss cheese.”
Arlen Specter (D-PA): “Undesirable.”
That’s actually pretty strong language for senators. And those are just the Democrats on record! There are any number of red-state Senate Democrats who’re trying to stay as far away from the ObamaCare debacle as possible. They’d view voting for reconciliation about as favorably as amputating one of their arms.
Meanwhile, Colorado is red again, and Harry Reid is getting crushed by his 2010 Republican challengers in Nevada polls.
The Democrats can bluff, but they don’t have 51 Senate votes to pass the bill by reconciliation. They don’t have 60 Senate votes to pass a bill with a public option. And they don’t have a majority in the House for a bill without a public option.
The next several weeks are going to be fun!
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August 23rd, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Byrd has gone nuclear as majority leader before…at least I recall reading that.
Maybe not.
August 24th, 2009 at 4:06 am
According to Senate rules, bills advanced through the budget reconciliation process can’t be filibustered, and so the 60-vote threshold that must be met to defeat a filibuster would not apply. Republicans used reconciliation in exactly this way during the Bush years to pass tax cuts in 2001, 2003, and 2005. Senate Republicans also used the reconciliation process to pass a bill concerning the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:22 am
That’s not the nuclear option. The nuclear option unilaterally changes the rules for the filibuster through a parliamentary maneuver. Reconciliation is already a part of the Senate rules.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:31 am
Although in Michigan, I sent contributions to Thune to defeat Daschle in South Dakota. I can see another Daschle moment in Nevada with Reid. He is going to be painted as an Obama stooge. Plus Obama has not made many friends in Nevada with his comments about junkets there. My feel for Nevada is that it is a liberal state socially and very conservative with economics.
Funny thing-I remember a lot of Dem liberals predicting they were going to take McConnell down in Kentucky like Republicans did to Daschle. They could not do that but I will stick my Neeeeeck out and say that Reid will go down.
Now how’s that for 12 or 13 months in advance!
August 24th, 2009 at 8:18 am
By choosing to promote the Death Panel Lie, the Republicans lost credibility in a bi-partisan approach, and so a simple majority vote is the rational outcome.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:43 am
The Death Panel was no liberal spin when they get caught with their pants down. I wish every entrepeurnial America went on strike for a year and showed these take care of me Socialist how they would do without us paying for their services. Could you imagine what the press would do if we had documentation that a Republican President was not born in the US had traveled to banned countries on a non- U.S. passport and had his education paid for by facists groups withou reporting the payment on his return as taxable stipend.
Wake up america you are loosing your Country to Moveon.or
August 24th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Could you imagine what the press would do if we had documentation that a Republican President was not born in the US…
Birthers! And Teabaggers! And Death Panels!
Oh my!
Birthers! And Teabaggers! And Death Panels!
Oh my!
The GOP isn’t in power, and so they are trying to take the USA to some irrational Oz.
August 24th, 2009 at 10:31 am
First of all, I am a republican about to change to either independent or libertarian. Second, if there are any idiots out there that still believe Obama’s birth certificate is a fraud, please consider this: if his b.c. was fake, the Clinton political machine would have exposed it during the primaries. Now, you may not agree with the tea-party people, but to call them NAZIs or un-American is ludicrus!!! They are Americans at their finest: involved and concerned. Democrats had every right to protest Iraq and Afghanistan. I personally supported both wars.The last time I looked, the constitution guaranteed ALL Americans the right to peaceful assembly, not just republicans or democrats. And finally, MOST Americans would like to see some type of healthcare reform, but when the powers that be keep trying to ram-rod half finished and vague proposals down our throats, simply saying “trust me” isn’t going to cut it. Americans gave Barry the benefit of the doubt with the stimulus plan. That plan was ram-rodded down our throats, failed to produce the desired results, and burned up any credibility B.O. might have had. Barry, stop listening to Pelosi and run the darn country!!! You won, now lead!!!!!
August 24th, 2009 at 11:10 am
I think Obama could solve this problem by simply showing a birth certificate.
August 24th, 2009 at 11:37 am
Obama could solve this problem
It was already solved, but the Birthers’ tin foil hats prevented them from understanding.
It is about as nutty as the Palin/Trig birth certificate crowd, irrationality knows no political party.
August 24th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
Here’s my take on this:
1. Colorado will be a Purple State again (it was never Blue to begin with despite Obama winning there last year).
2. Gov. Bill Ritter (D) is in serious DANGER of being sent packing from the Executive Mansion because he’s going to regret playing games with a US Senate seat, he should have picked either US Rep. John Salazar (D-CO) or Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D)-who is rumored to have gubernatorial aspirations in 2014 or 2018.
3. I agree that Reid goes down in the Nevada Senate IF the GOP gets a popular statewide candidate (not someone who’s been indicted), but I have a feeling the Democrats are going to take back the governorship for the first time since 1994 next year since Gibbons’ unpopularity will drag down down-ballot candidates down (see Bob Taft in OH).
4. There’s a good chance Obama will be a one-term President since his approval ratings are tanking into Blagojevich-lite numbers (I’ll be waiting to see if they plunge to 7 percent).
5. New Jersey and Virginia are likely GONE in November for several reasons:
* Deeds has proven that he’s a HORRIBLE candidate for the VA Democrats who could have asked US Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA) to run this year, but I bet some who are anti-Deeds Democrats are plotting for 2013.
* Corzine’s corruption scandals, plus his car accident and alienating the entire electorate has sealed his fate, I think Chris Christie (R) has a chance to pick off 16-25 percent of the African American vote and 35 percent of Latinos, etc.,
6. In Congress, the Democrats are likely to lose 20-40 House seats and maybe 1-2 in the Senate, my money is also on Dodd going down in flames in Connecticut.
7. Both parties will pick-up governorships like 2002 next year: Dems get CA (with Jerry Brown sadly, it’s looking that way), HI (Abercrombie with Obama’s popularity is a done deal), NV, Minn, AL (Davis joins Pinchback, Wilder, Patrick, and Paterson as the nation’s 5th Black governor), FL, and RI.
Republicans pick-up Illinois (if the Quinn-Hynes primary is NASTY), Iowa (if Branstad seeks an unprecedented 5th term), Wyoming, Kansas, Michigan (Granholm’s unpopularity has killed the MI Dems for a long time), Tennessee, and Oklahoma.
August 24th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
Anon Cal, yes, Granholm’s unpopular, and will slink out of Michigan never to be heard from again, but the lefty political machine will fully back and support their candidate. If it’s her man Lt. Gov Cherry… they’ll lose. But, if it’s House Speaker Andy Dillon, a triangulating pro-lifer who’s recently made a bold proposal to consolidate all state and local government employee health benefits under one plan, the Demos could win.
The Reps will run an extremely solid candidate, one of a 1/2 dozen well known names. This race could be interesting, and about the issues, shockingly.
A big unknown will be whether that Stryker guy from Colorado will once again introduce out of state cash to support leftist legislator candidates, or the gov nominee.
August 24th, 2009 at 3:45 pm
Democrats plot the removal of minority voting rights.
Democrats crafting the nuclear option.
August 24th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
If they do this, the filibuster is dead for good.
Republicans will have to regain the majority and ram through reforms to get rid of it.
No one will like this. Both parties will pull their partisan antics to push through all sorts of awful legislation.
August 24th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
Well here’s a fascinating mix up.
and
also this article on it. Ron Paul’s economic theories winning GOP converts — including Michele Bachmann
August 24th, 2009 at 4:43 pm
72% of Alt-A loans in California?
August 24th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
An interesting day for me. Helped a friend with his computer and went to a local fraternal club afterward for a beer. 10 guys were in there. I try to stay clear of politics in public but the discussion moved to politics…..
4 of them voted for Obama and 6 for McCain. 3 Obama supporters absolutely have changed their mind on him and wish they voted McCain. The other one walked out. When asked before he left –his opinion why he still supported Obama he did not answer.
One of the Obama supporters voted for George McGovern and is very liberal. His Comment-”I’ve had enough of Obama’s $hit”.
M opinion, Dems and liberals are clueless to the discontent with Obama from middle class independent voters.
And I again say, America is in a shift of political fortunes. Certain issues have moved voting blocks from one party to another. e.g. Civil War, FDR and the Great Depresion, The civil rights movement and I see a major shift occurring from these far left policies. Seniors are scared.
August 24th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
Should Holder extend his investigation to include Jay Bybee and John Yoo too?
Why is Holder going after underlings?
August 24th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
Is Glen Greenwald the actual leader of the American left? It seems so these days.
Glen Greenwald take on Holder’s decision to prosecute.
“Rather, it is the ACLU (with which I consult) that, along with other human rights organizations, has had to fill the void left by those failed institutions, using their own funds to pursue litigation to compel disclosure. Without their efforts, we would know vastly less than we know now about the crimes our government committed.
Before saying anything about the implications of this Report, I want to post some excerpts of what CIA interrogators did. Every American should be forced to read and learn this in order to know what was done in their names (click images to enlarge):”
Threats of execution
Threats to kill detainee and his children
Pressure points on carotid artery
Threats to rape detainee’s female relatives in front of him
“Buttstroking” with rifles and knee kicks
Blowing smoke in detainee’s face for five minutes
More “convincing and poignant” waterboarding of the type we prosecuted Japanese war criminals for using
The IG Report documents numerous other abuses, including having waterboarded detainees 82 and 183 times; hanging them by their arms until interrogators thought their shoulders might be dislocated; stepping on their ankle shackles to cause severe bruising and pain; putting them in a diapers and leaving them doused with water on cold concrete floors in cold temperatures to induce hypothermia, etc. Some of the numerous deaths of detainees during interrogations were also discussed. After documenting all of that, the IG Report notes:
“Perhaps worst of all, the Report notes that many of the detainees who were subjected to this treatment were so treated due to “assessments that were unsupported by credible intelligence” — meaning there was no real reason to think they had done anything wrong whatsoever. As has been known for quite some time, many of the people who were tortured by the United States were completely innocent — guilty of absolutely nothing.”
Manifestly, none of this happened by accident. As the IG Report continuously notes, all of these methods were severe departures from long-standing CIA guidelines (if not practices). This all occurred because the officials at the highest levels of the U.S. Government pronounced that this was permissible, the protections of the Geneva Conventions were “quaint,” obsolete and inapplicable, and the U.S. was justified in doing anything and everything in the name of fighting Terrorists. As stomach-turning as these individual acts of sadism are, it is far worse to consider that only low-level interrogators will suffer consequences while those who were truly responsible — the criminally depraved leaders and lawyers who ordered and authorized it — will be protected.
The historical record of what the U.S. did during this period is clear and growing. The only question that remains is what, if anything, we will do now that we are seeing the full picture.
August 24th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Invalid10:
“Every American should be forced to read and learn this in order to know what was done in their names (click images to enlarge):””
I think to be fair, we should force every American to read and learn what was done to the soldiers captured by the terrorists in the name of Allah.
Then let them vote.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
Ken,
Aren’t we talking about the CIA here and not the military.
There are already troops in jail for Abu Ghraib. Possibly just scape goats but all that is a separate issues.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:34 pm
Heh,
With that Abu Ghraib thing I can see how the military would want to protect its own as most organizations do since they’re in battle field conditions, but still you can’t allow a few bad apples to cause total fucking chaos and discredit the entire military because of it.
They’re were military people condemning Abu Ghraib at the time not just the commander who general who claimed she had to take the fall for it.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
MI
Good posts. Was especially interested in your after work socialization story, how 3 out of 4 obama voters now had regrets. I am seeing that too. My Mom’s caregiver’s husband had not voted in 20 years, when he decided to break the habit and vote for Obama. He is now so mad at him, that he will probably never vote again. Here and there, I hear tidbits of “disgust” from people who took a chance with Obama, and are now mad at themselves for doing so.
I agree that America could indeed be “in a shift of fortunes.”
To anon CA
I also enjoyed your astute political predictions. However, I am not so sure about the governorship going to Jerry Brown. He is probably the current frontrunner. But, I think Whitman or Campbell, depending on who wins the primary, are formidable challengers.
I know Tom Campbell, has a lot of radio time on the Hugh Hewitt show, is extremely intelligent and articulate — is interesting to listen to, meaning “good people skills,” which so many Republican candidates lack. If you put him up against Jerry Brown, I think Campbell will seem like a better governor…plus he has a lot less baggage than Brown has.
August 24th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
Actually Ken,
Wespoint is famous for dismissing an ENTIRE class of fourth years out because there was cheating going on, and the people who weren’t cheating weren’t turning people in so those people were dubbed as dishonorable too.
If they’re going to dismiss an entire class of new officers based on a situation that was almost a catch-22 for everyone involved whether or not that wanted to be involved or not, how are we going to say that we’re not going to prosecute people who were egregiously abusing prisoners (some of the photos not released yet because they’re supposedly too damaging?)
It’s would have been kind of hard for them to do nothing about it.
August 24th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
Invalid10:
“As stomach-turning as these individual acts of sadism are,”
Really? How would you characterize the treatment of Daniel Pearl? Better? Worse?
August 25th, 2009 at 9:55 am
Ken,
Well the war on terror should be a law enforcement matter so I believe we’re creating more terrorists by pushing the War on terror further on.
The war on terror is political theater nothing more.
August 25th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Ken,
O ya, and I also think that the ISI ordered Pearl dead. They didn’t like him poking around as a foreign investigative journalist, and they even said so.
I believe his killer had a show trial in Pakistan, but it was a wink-wink because after it was over they had an appeal, and last I heard he was still free to move around in Pakistan.
I’m referring to Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, of course, who was the money man behind all financing of the 9/11 attacks.
August 25th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Invalid10:
“Well the war on terror should be a law enforcement matter ”
That inplies enforcement of the law (US?) after the fact. How do you utilize law enforcement processes to stop a suitcase bomb from blowing up a city or a germ warfare canister being deployed in an urban area?
For the record, I am quite comfortable with the interrogation techniques used by US authorities. They are benign compared to what the Islamic terrorists uses.
August 25th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Ken really?
You know over 100 detainees have died.
That sleep deprivation torture is even worse than the water boarding. What they do is hook up electrodes to measure brain activity, and when they go into REM sleep, they wake the detainee up.
People have done this to rats, and they last about a week before they die because they miss the most critical part of the sleep so now the U.S. government is trying these experiments on human beings in their custody.
So those sleep deprivation techniques are not just banking on the walls and what not where the detainee would get a little sleep here and there, but more of a calculated effort to really screw them up and possibly kill them.
August 25th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Ken,
O about your law enforcement question, you can’t do anything to the person after they’re already dead obviously so you have to catch them before they do it. However belonging to a group or idle talk is not a crime either.
There are leftists who want to outlaw “hate speech” and the KKK along with right wing militia movements etc, but we have freedom of association and freedom of speech so that American citizens are supposed to be able to join an Al Qaeda or the Mafia or Weather Underground so long as they’re not actually acting on a threat.
What I mean by that, for example, is when Glen Beck joked about murdering Pelosi last week on his show. He had no actual intent just BSing.
However, under the law if Beck was buying poison, and was spying on Pelosi and had a plan for a event where he could get to here, then he would have an actual intent.
So I think Bush abducted one American citizen who was a member of Al Qaeda. However, we don’t know if he had intent or not because he was denied habeus corpus (unlike Tim McVeigh who got a jury.)
Most like Bush had nothing though, and was just acting as the decider.
August 25th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Ya so the Right wing wants to classify all Al Qaeda associations as the automatic intent without an jury rights where the president or possibly just underlings at the CIA would be doing it all in secret.
Why not do that to the Mafia. They have killed thousands.
We could just wire tap them and go in their houses without warrants, abduct them all, and put them into CIA black sites.
Same for the KKK and some of the right-wing militia movements because of some of them could be deemed too dangerous by the president who get universal all knowing power to decide (Obama and Holder etc.)
August 25th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Invalid10:
“Ken really?”
Yes, really
“You know over 100 detainees have died.”
People die during wartime. Look at historical deaths in any allied prison camp during various wars. It’s not unexpected
Look. You want to defend these murderous pieces of filth, go to it. They’d gut you and your family in a second. You may have a death wish but the rest of us don’t want to commit suicide.
Did Daniel Pearl receive Geneva Convention treatment? Yes? No?
August 25th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
Did Daniel Pearl receive Geneva Convention treatment? Yes? No?
They are beasts, but that doesn’t mean that we should get into the slime with them. There are rules of conduct that separate humans from beasts, even if one is dealing with a beast.
August 25th, 2009 at 3:41 pm
Ken-
So you think people who went over the line should be unaccountable?
Why would the Iraqis want us there if we abduct random people to torture, possibly rape or kill them. They’re not going to have a good view of the occupation if we had continued that policy.
Do you think Westpoint did the right thing in dismissing an ENTIRE class of fourth years because some of the class was cheating?
If they’re going to do that, why would we turn our head to gross abuses of human rights that didn’t take place on a battlefield, but actually on a U.S. base?
Of course they didn’t allow it just as your position is unjustifiable. People went to jail for it, and McCain passed a law banning water boarding by the U.S. military so he did something correct for a change.
He attempted to clean up the mess yet the CIA is still accountable.
August 25th, 2009 at 4:53 pm
This is just stupid obama is an idiot, because this system was made to get budgets passed for presidents who didn’t have the senate. And obama is completely abusing it to get ahead, because he was spoiled by the media and he doesn’t know how to lose. I mean think about it has he never was criticized like this before, because the hope is gone. And how could he even think about healthcare when we have a deficit this high. Are mane focus as a country should be to fix the deficit we need a balanced budget amendment and a Gold Standard, because if we don’t we’ll be dead. And obama is a plotter nothing more than a plotter, because his main priority is to look good on TV, just adds trillions to our debt, and try to pull off reelection. I mean Clinton has made a hundred and thirteen million dollars in the last nine years. Now obama being the first black president will probably make a billion dollars by the time he dies, because if he serves two terms which I highly doubt he’ll leave office at age 56. So by the time he’s seventy six which he’ll be able to live to that age, because he gets the good care not that crap he’s trying to get passed. So anyway he’ll wright tons of book same with Michael and they’ll work for big companies making millions off that.
August 25th, 2009 at 6:34 pm
Invalid10:
“There are rules of conduct that separate humans from beasts, even if one is dealing with a beast.”
Well we finally get down to it. Strip away all the fancy language and we get a pacifist coward. The Islamic terrorists take drill to soldiers heads and you get your panties in a wad because we blow smoke in their faces? God, to think that young men give their lives to protect scum like you. You’d be the first to turn your neighbors in to save your own skin.