Let The Unwinding Begin
By Oak Leaf ~ June 13th, 2009 @ 6:34 am
The talks have begun;
LECCE, Italy (AP) — Financial officials from the Group of Eight industrialized nations are expected to agree Saturday to ask the International Monetary Fund to investigate ways to unwind hefty stimulus packages amid early signs of a global economic recovery.
While the usual suspects want to keep winding;
with the United States, Britain and France urging members to stay committed to expansive monetary and fiscal packages
Pretty easy to see why the United States wanting to be “cautious.” If you admit the economy is recovering, all your spending plans go up in smoke.
Besides, the Republican Party keeps giving the Democrat Administration all the ammunition they need to justify their spending.
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June 13th, 2009 at 9:08 am
There’s not a chance in hell the Dems repeal the porkulus bill, with or without recovery.
Republicans should speak up loudly and often against the spending and debt. They will be more credible when running against Obama’s mess in 2010 and 2012. That does not require pretending the economy is OK now.
June 13th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
Where did we get this guy? Somehow Obamamancrushleaf overlooks rising interest rates, the clear threat of increased taxes, and the government’s seizure of several corporations in his neverending assurances the economy is in recovery. If it were, then unemployment would be falling, not rising. The dollar would be increasing, not decreasing, in value. So eager is Obamamancrushleaf to declare there are no ills with the economy he overlooks the obvious dangers all around us. He reminds me of Herbert Hoover in 1931 when the stock market came somewhat off its lows falling the 1929 crash before plummeting: “Prospecirt is just around the corner.” How well’d that one work out for Hoover?
[I hate to tell you this but the evidence right now is that everyone who jumped on to "Obama Bear Market" are the ones who called it wrong. I really feel sorry for those that capitulated the first week in March because of Hannity, Limbaugh et al who came up with a catchy slogan out of political need not financial planning. Over the next three years, my hypothesis will be tested and judged. I believe that year end results for December 31, 2009/2010/2011/2012 will show that equities in general will be a superior investment to other asset classes in general. IMO history is repeating itself, I witnessed it at the beginning of Reagan, Clinton, Bush (43). OL]
June 13th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
How is the GOP giving them ammunition to keep spending? Makes no sense?
[Its a reinforcement loop that goes like this;
Obama: We need to stimulate the economy because it is bad and the government is the spender of last resort.
Republicans: Its Herbert Hoover Time.
Public: Hmm, Obama says its bad, GOP agrees, we need the government to keep the economy moving because nothing else can or will.
IMO, that feedback loop must be broken. Otherwise, it is GUARANTEED that the public will buy into Obama saved the economy.
So how do you break that feedback loop? I honestly believe that we are in a recovery. There is enough evidence to prove that. Thats why hundreds of billions of wealth has been created since the Obama Bear Market declaration.
Millions of people believe exactly what I am saying, worldwide. Buyers outnumber sellers.
If the Dow retreats back to 6,600 my thesis is wrong.
OL]
June 13th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Oak Leaf:
“If the Dow retreats back to 6,600 my thesis is wrong.”
If the Dow retreats to 8000 your thesis is wrong.
Ken
Dallas
[I just want to get this straight. The Obama Bear Market was declared at approx 6,600. The Dow is now teasing 9,000. If the Dow retreats back to 8,000 (which it could), because thats only a 21% increase in value since the Bear Market declaration was made, that invalidates my thesis.
Let me make it easier for you. On Friday the Dow closed at 8,799. Just invalidate my thesis the minute the Dow crosses back over 8,798.
The economic doomsayers are no different than the global cooling/warming/climate change doomsayers.
OL]
June 13th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
The Dow is a joke now. It’s had a close to a 10% change in its components since October or so of last year. So it isn’t even the same Dow as we knew it in June of 2008, one year ago. I’ve repeated this several times on here, but it seems to go in one ear and out the other for you.
One could say that the GOP is arguing for tax cuts instead of gov’t spending since the people are responsible for the majority of the GDP, not the way that you stated it.
[Personally, I do not care to use the Dow but most people want to use it. The parties that declared the Obama Bear Market used it so hence I am using it. I use the S&P 500 and Wiltshire 5,000 for personal benchmarking. Regardless, the trend is my friend in either of three indexes. OL]
June 13th, 2009 at 3:05 pm
Look at how the govt is fudging the unemployment numbers by unrealistically high adjustments to the Birth/Death figure (just to get it DOWN to below 10%) and you wouldn’t think we we were anywhere near a recovery.
June 13th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Inflation with slow growth is an economic nightmare scenario and that is where we are headed. None of the options for dealing with it will be good.
Oak Leaf, the stock market is only doing well now because of so much excess monetary liquidity not because of economic fundementals. According to reports a little over 9 Trillion in US personal assests are still “on the side lines” so it is reasonable to expect that some of that money can and likely will come into the market. The problem is that stock market gains with no “real” growth can and will not last long. If the market takes off into a bubble frendzy which you seem to think is possible, it will be brought back to much lower levels once high inflation, high interest rates, and higher taxes, an absolute certainty after 2010, are factored in to market valuations.
I won’t even start in to economic damage the disasterous policies that the Democrats are working overtime to foist onto the American public for our own good. They are litterally in the process of killing the goose that has been laying golden Eggs for nearly 70 years.
June 13th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Oops, I forgot to pub “for our own good” in quotes. I certainly don’t think that any of the current Democrat initiatives are good for anybody.
June 13th, 2009 at 7:21 pm
For the record the Dow Jones 30 Industrials is now a misnomer since some of the companies comprising it currently really aren’t industrial companies so I don’t know why people still like to call it that.
June 13th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
I always see Geither and Bernake walking around together and giving joint news conferences and planning.
They say the Bernake’s decisions and department is fully independent but it will be fun to see how much he works with Obama’s treasury. I can see all the officials banning together to figure out how to make sure Obama gets reelected for 2004 and make sure the politics are smoothed out.
Probably day dreaming but who knows what they are doing behind closed doors.
Greenspan gave Bush his lower interest rates and supported his tax cuts without much protest. I just see that department as kind of ducking when they fear a president and a president’s reelection coming.
June 13th, 2009 at 7:34 pm
“Geithner”
“are”
Timothy Geithner uses Turbo Tax. Obama break down.
June 14th, 2009 at 12:14 am
Oak Leaf:
” If the Dow retreats back to 8,000 (which it could), because thats only a 21% increase in value since the Bear Market declaration was made, that invalidates my thesis.”
Correct.
Ken
Dallas
June 14th, 2009 at 8:00 am
Oak. The Republicans have no power.
June 15th, 2009 at 8:37 am
Oakleaf was wrong. Sound the retreat.
June 15th, 2009 at 11:56 am
I have no doubt that JokeLeaf will eventually have everyone so confused that he will eventually claim he was right about the markets all along. Just remember Oak’s mantra that, “us” Republicans better get on board the Obama recovery or else we wont get credit for it and will take a beating in 2010 and 2012….LOL. ….sort of like taking advice from Carville.
[I never ever called it the Obama Recovery. The recovery rightfully belongs to George W. Bush. How many times do I need to repeat myself? OL]
June 15th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
Here are the worse states as far as state income tax rates are concerned, something our southern posters won’t care for since they have some states on the list while states such as Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio aren’t. The listed amount is where the top bracket starts.
1. Hawaii 11.00% > $200,000
2. California 10.55% > $1,000,000
3. New Jersey 9.97% > $500,000
4. Rhode Island 9.90% > $357.700
5. Vermont 9.50% > $357,700
6. Oregon 9.00% > $7.600
7. Iowa 8.98% > $62,055
8. Maine 8.50% > $19,450
9. Washington D. C. 8.5% > $40,000
10. Minnesota 7.85% > $71,590
11. Idaho 7.80% > $24,736
12. North Carolina 7.75% > $60,000
13. South Carolina 7.0% > $13,350
14. Arkansas 7.0% > $31,700