Market Confidence, The Next Leap
The only question that remains is exactly when the Democrats and the Obama Surrogates start taking credit for the tremendous increase in the value of equities.
If they start trying to take credit this summer, bring out the 200 day moving average;
Stocks have risen 40% from their March lows. Yet, for some investors, the true bullish signal for stocks came only yesterday.
For the first time since December 2007, the S&P 500 crossed above its 200-day moving average. And if that sounds like so much gibberish — well, bear with me, because a lot of people take it very seriously, and it could be a signal for lots of investors to get off the sidelines and back into stocks. That, in turn, could help push this rally even higher.
Conservatives need to be prepared to debate “Obama restored the Clinton given wealth that Bush destroyed.”
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June 3rd, 2009 at 9:23 am
“We’ve had a very strong move in a very short period of time and the economy certainly isn’t green-shooting in a way that justifies a lot of optimism,” said Michael Holland, chairman of New York-based Holland & Co. LLC, which oversees about $4 billion.
The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report, scheduled for June 5, may show payrolls at companies and government agencies shrank by 520,000 in May and unemployment rose to a 25-year high of 9.2 percent, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Bill Gross, founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., advised holders of U.S. dollars to diversify before central banks and sovereign wealth funds ultimately do the same amid concern about surging deficits.
The U.S.’s “fortune-producing capabilities seem to be declining, which might suggest that its relative standard of living is doing so as well,” Gross wrote in his June investment outlook posted today on the Newport Beach, California-based firm’s Web site. “If so, the implications are serious.”
June 3rd, 2009 at 9:27 am
Anonymous-There’s none so deaf as those who will not hear.
June 3rd, 2009 at 9:32 am
Tell that to the 532,000 newly unemployed just LAST MONTH.
Banks ARE NOT lending, the Dollar is on shaky footing, and Bernanke is sounding more and more shrill.
Geithner is LAUGHED AT when he trys to assure the Chicoms their bond investments are safe (laughed at by Communists! They know what folly we are undertaking, they have been here before).
Even Chavez is joking that he and Fidel are farther to the right than Obama- who is currently showing the Mideast what a vapid airhead he is.
….And you are posting this bull squeeze?
Gov’t is taking over banks and industries at an alarming rate, and you say we should “get on board”? Get on board what? The Obama express? Getting on board means condoning- I am no Marxist, nor a Socialist (Marxist lite). Nor am I a Fascist, the other centrally planned system which is what the current gov’t is starting to resemble.
You keep trying to say we should “thank Bush” for “staring into the abyss” and making the tough calls.
I would argue that A) that ain’t gonna sell, and
B) Bush had to make a whole hell of a lot of tough calls, but if he had tackled the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac thing front and center a few years ago (when his own regulators were raising flags), this mess wouldn’t have happened- or if it did the Dodds, Franks, and Obamas of this world would be the ones owning it.
Instead, he tried to kick the can down the road.
June 3rd, 2009 at 9:32 am
Doctor Oak Leaf’s problem is not that he is misreading the patient’s blood pressure, which although not very good, is nonetheless improving considerably, but that he is missing the patient’s cancer.
June 3rd, 2009 at 10:35 am
Assuming the rally stays intact!
June 3rd, 2009 at 4:36 pm
Starting to believe the mainstream press, are we Oak Leaf? Sure, the mainstream press is more of an influence than anything else, and I bet that they are damn sure gonna make Obama into something of a God. Pushing false good news about the economy to sheeple, in turn letting them believe it is OK to buy goods they wouldn’t otherwise do, in turn stimulating the economy. This is what they do. Yet, we have jobs being lost in hundreds of thousands a month, the dollar is losing more ground, oil is going up, Russia-China-Brazil moving away from the dollar, and a deficit we cannot endure.
Our economy is going to shit. Point blank.
I was just thinking today about how much of a friggin idiot Obama is today with the 57 state comment, and his stuttering when the teleprompter breaks. Then I remember all the comments from libs who stated Reagan, HW Bush, and GW Bush were stupid, despite their bringing back life into the USA. Yet, all of the comments the are considered to be near retardation are uttered by Obama on a daily basis, yet he is the “articulate and clean black man” (not my words, Biden’s).
Yes, pushing a trillion dollars of printing money back into the economy is going to jump start it a tad. But, what is the unintended consequences of this printing? Inflation and high interest rates. We are already seeing high interest rates and higher gas prices. This is only the start of it, OL. More, and worse to come. Mark my words.
June 3rd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Blips on the radar screen. Doesn’t see what is coming; it ain’t good.
June 3rd, 2009 at 5:39 pm
I think that is the big “if,” in trying to figure out the genuineness of this rally. There are certainly a lot of other indexes, trends and industry baselines in which to look at the economy other than the daily stock market.
Even some of these “green shoots,” which some economists optimistically point out, are disingenuous indicators on which to hang a thumb’s-up opinion on.
For instance, the housing market has had a bit of a bump, but that is because of people (mainly investors) are grabbing up cheap bank-owned properties.
Government is creating more jobs which has given a bit of hope in the job market — but this is not private enterprise at work — it’s the government growing!
The dollar is weakening. Even the Fed is issuing warnings on printing too much money in hopes of making things look better than they are!
So, I think it is too early to put a smile on the economy…just yet!
June 3rd, 2009 at 8:09 pm
Now’s the time to stand against the oppressors!
June 3rd, 2009 at 9:28 pm
I was just thinking today about how much of a friggin idiot Obama is today with the 57 state comment, and his stuttering when the teleprompter breaks.
Actually, if you read this he is claiming we have 60 states. He’s been to 57 with one to go. That’s 58, plus his staff couldn’t justify visiting two more, which would be 60.
“Over the last fifteen months, we’ve traveled to every corner of the United States. I’ve now been in 57 states, I think — one left to go. Alaska and Hawaii I was not allowed to go to … my staff could not justify it.”
I can see where he probably meant 47 states, but he never corrected it that I know of.
June 3rd, 2009 at 9:58 pm
Nobody’s ever seen a mkt run 40% off lows with little pullback, since the early thirties anyway.
This mkt has caught all off guard huge. All expected maybe a 20-25% run,then a fall back but to get 40% with not more than a 1-2 day low vol pullback is quite amazing and freaky. Shorts fear of the ppt is well founded.
The fact that there has been no pullback is very bearish IMO.
Of course, the market keeps going up so its possible that short term is still bullish. But medium to long term very very bearish.
At some point, the banks will have to start reporting losses. When it happens, see you at the bottom.
June 4th, 2009 at 2:51 pm
But you think stagflation is coming?, and this will be good for the stock market?
A weaker dollar does lead to higher stock prices, denominated in dollars.
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