Market Politics
Mark Hulbert, of MarketWatch looked at seven “of top stock market timers who’ve been consistently right in recent market cycles.” His criteria;
Specifically, I wanted to find those services whose stock market timing advice did better than a buy-and-hold in each of the last two bear markets (2000-2002 and the one that began in 2007), as well as during the intervening bull market.
This is a demanding set of criteria, as it turns out. Merely beating the market over the entire period since early 2000 would not be good enough to meet this test — hard as it is to do that. I was interested instead in services that performed well in each of the three market periods. Only seven of the nearly 200 newsletters I track were able to jump over these hurdles.
Just one of the referenced newsletters was Bob Brinker’s Marketimer:
“We believe the final bottom for the cyclical bear market was registered with the series of benchmark closing lows that occurred in early March on reduced trading volume. Since that time, we have been in the early stages of a cyclical bull market which should carry into next year and generate large percentage gains for the major indexes.”
MarketWatch’s closing paragraph;
You might not agree with their bullishness. But, given that each of them beat a buy-and-hold in each of the last two bear markets, as well as in the intervening bull market, and given that they are unanimously positive on the equity markets, you at a minimum have to take their forecasts seriously
Now what did the GOP do in early March? They wrapped Obama up with the performance of the markets in order to have a news cycle with a catchy phrase.
John Kerry and the Democrats ignored and mocked the tremendous wealth that was generated in the markets in 2004.
If the GOP does not position itself for taking credit in planting the seeds of recovery, the Democrats will harvest the benefits in 2010 and 2012.
Do you really want to see Election 2010 and 2012 featuring “Obama Saved My IRA/401K” or “Obama, Back To The Future (1993-2000)”
Besides, the only effective way to reduce Obama’s stimulus spending plans is by showing the need has diminished and the cost is no longer worth the benefit.
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May 20th, 2009 at 5:56 am
Oak,
Even if our current crop of GOP leaders were the most political adept and savvy in dealing with the old liberal media establishment, they would find it incredibly difficult and nigh unto impossible to claim any credit for a recovering economy. It seems the best that can be done right now is point to the long range damage & pain that Obama will be inflicting on the country through present undesired government intervention & higher “trickle down” taxation. The economy could seem right now to be like a patient who suffered a life-threatening heart attack, who, while recovering in the hospital, was given large dosages of all the wrong medication by an inexperienced doctor or nurse, leading to severe and unrelated fatal complications.
I don’t trust this “Dr. Obomba” who “Like a Surgeon” graduated “last in his class; barely passed at the institute, and now he’s trying to avoid a malpractice suit…”
May 20th, 2009 at 5:58 am
Do you really want to see Election 2010 and 2012 featuring “Obama Saved My IRA/401K” or “Obama, Back To The Future (1993-2000)”
We know you do, Tears of Joy.
‘Besides, the only effective way to reduce Obama’s stimulus spending plans is by showing the need has diminished and the cost is no longer worth the benefit.’
If Obama’s marxist agenda is implemented, the game is over. Since you must know this, the only conclusion is that you support it.
May 20th, 2009 at 6:01 am
Also, the world situation is so unstable that all it will take to setback the economy will be some kind of military action overseas in one of any number of world hot spots. It’s hard to foresee this NOT happening. Oil prices will skyrocket, and the market will drop like a stone. Is our country positioned to withstand something like that? And – God forbid – Lord only knows if/when another attack occurs here what that will do…
May 20th, 2009 at 6:46 am
Honestly,where is the recovery? More people are collecting unemployment than were before Obama took office. Our largest and most important state has double digit unemployment. Where is the recovery? Maybe these people need to “keep it real”and see how much regular Maericans are hurting.
May 20th, 2009 at 7:25 am
Question-Does a good report from a couple of companies and the stock market inching higher at a snails pace mean the economy is recovering?
May 20th, 2009 at 9:14 am
A Government fiat money bubble market is still a bubble market:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30838800
May 20th, 2009 at 9:31 am
Oak – “If the GOP does not position itself for taking credit in planting the seeds of recovery, the Democrats will harvest the benefits in 2010 and 2012.”
Opposing a popular President (Reagan)in the middle of a Reccession didn’t hurt the minority Democrats in 1982, 1984 and 1986, when they made huge gains (Remember Voodoo Economics?). Note that they still opposed him as the recovery was in full swing. This shilling for Obama is tiresome.
May 20th, 2009 at 10:19 am
I’m not that impressed with this Marco Rubio guy.
I’m not that impressed with Charlie Crist either also he doesn’t annoy me nearly as much as Graham-McCain-Lieberman.
It will fun to see some debates between Crist and Rubio. I actually would like to see some more candidates enter this race.
May 20th, 2009 at 10:44 am
Why is Rubio better than Crist.
Anyone have a reason to why RedState and Hotair like Rubio. I haven’t figured it out yet as to what is so great about him or why he is the savior. Maybe Crist is more conservative. I actually haven’t head that much from Crist really.
May 20th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
I don’t see why the GOP can’t have their cake and eat it too regarding the present market.
They can educate the public about the so-called “seeds” planted under Bush’s watch (like OL suggested). But, at the same time, be warning people that the economy is still in jeopardy under the weight of Obama’s non-stop printing of money to accommodate his overwhelming government agenda.
After all isn’t that what is happening?
[Thank You!! That is largely my point. I believe that in order to stop the Obama spigot, you have to first say "hey, things are turning which means we do not need to spend to stimulate anymore. Then pivot that with certain Conservative ideas to "preserve the tender young green shoots." Example, make a permanent capital gains tax rate so investors can plan and are willing to invest long term. Maybe we should have no capital gains after "x" years.
Sadly what I see around the web and here, are GOP supporters who want to say the economy is going to hell and lets stop spending. If the economy is going to hell, I do not believe that you can get majority support not to spend. There is a time when the government should spend and thats when things are going to hell. I held my breath to "support" Bush last fall/winter because it looked like everything was going to collapse. Lots of blame to go around on all sides but thats for later, Bush had to stop the cliff jumping.
Ergo, last fall there was a consensus to spend because we were going off the cliff. Today, we are no longer going off the cliff so we need to shut the spending down. Obama and the Democrats are justifying the spending by saying everything is going to hell, so why give them fuel?
At this point, I think the only spending to stimulate should be to rebuild the roads which are horrid and to rebuild the energy grid which seems to be pretty bad. Those are items that need work now or later, so might as well do it now.
Hell, use the cap and trade fiasco and turn the tables to start building new nuclear plants every month for five years to replace coal. I would challenge the dems, IF "global warming" is something to be so fearful of, then surely nuclear plants are less of a fear. Call them on the carpet for that. If they say nuclear plants are more dangerous than global warming then they have proven its a hoax. Otherwise they have to suck it up and go nuclear.
Personally, I would say that nuclear plants ARE more dangerous than global warming!! That's because there is no danger from global warming, none, zero. Whats more dangerous, a bunny rabbit or 50 new nuclear plants, its the same type of question.
OL]
May 20th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Invalid10
I don’t know a lot about Rubio either. But, the little I’ve gleaned is that he is a new, young face in the GOP, articulates the conservative creed well, and doesn’t seem to have the tainted or disingenuous back ground that Crist has displayed, especially in some of his dealings with Obama.
Generally speaking, Crist appears to pander to the left-of-center more, while Rubio focuses on the constituency and the philosophy he was elected to represent — right-of-center.
May 20th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
HOW IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA CAN THIS HAPPEN?
THIS IS A PRIVATE BUSINESS NOT A GOVERNMENT ENTITY
This is beyond imagination! My business is being stolen from me through NO FAULT OF OUR OWN. We did NOTHING wrong.
This atrocity will most likely force my family into bankruptcy. This will also cause our 50+ employees to be unemployed. How will they provide for their families? This is a total economic disaster.
HOW CAN THIS HAPPEN IN A FREE MARKET ECONOMY IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA?
May 20th, 2009 at 2:37 pm
CIA Lyin?
Specter defends Pelosi, questions CIA’s honesty
May 20th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Thanks for sharing. Great post
May 20th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Judge Napolitano to represent MotorHome Diaries in court to sue Mississippi Jones County police?
Napolitano hosted Glen Beck’s show today supposedly.
May 20th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
A must watch animation
Sadly, it seems to have been highly prophetic. The “ism” is statism and it’s too bad that the populace drank the Kool Aid.
May 20th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
invalid10,
Is there any possibility in your mind that maybe Pelosi is lyin? It’s one person’s word againsts the other, and yet, you seem to have taken a side in this matter?
May 20th, 2009 at 5:13 pm
JSP, don’t encourage him.
May 20th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
JSP-
Could be. That’s what I initially thought, but the more I look at it, the more I think the CIA’s records are bogus.
I think we need investigations. If we get rid of Pelosi that would be a fine outcome but she is small fish since the San Francisco will just elect another dem. Going after the CIA would be a much bigger deal although there is probably slim to no chances of getting rid of them.
May 20th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
Someone should tell the FED about this recovery…
May 20th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
Oak is doing a disservice to his readers. Jumpimg into the market now is crazy. If Oak is right, you may gain another 10 to 20 percent. If the naysayers are right, you could lose 50%. Is a 10-20 percent gain worth the risk of a possible 50% drop? Anybody who is encouraging people to get back in the market now is being reckless. If your in cash, stay in cash. If you are in the market, I would get out and take the gains. The economic fundamentals are too uncetain to be gambling. We are not going to be able to wish this away. The increased taxation, energy cost, and regulation will be too much for companies to bear.
[Anyone that pushed the idea of "Obama Bear Market" did the disservice. How many people bailed right then? I have already posted an article of a retiree that did just that. If anyone asked me what to do, the formal recommendation has always been to dollar cost average back in. If you are in funds, do it automatically. OL]
May 20th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
shut up you GOP partisans, the recovery is real. bastards
May 20th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
Another Bottom for Stocks Coming
May 20th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
No NO NOOOO! You damn PAAARRTISAAANNNNS!
Obama help me my dear lord and savior!
May 20th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
TomT,
Based on the way that the Fed is printing money, I would say that cash is not where you want to be.
May 20th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
Don’t Panic! China fears worldwide inflation!
May 20th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
RWY,
I don’t think that OL is worried. Right now he is probably singing Obama Man Can to himself.
May 20th, 2009 at 8:49 pm
That and “I Like Chinese” by monty python… he would deny the hell out of that of course…..
May 20th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
Either the banks fail, or the government fails.
One or the other will happen. The govt. can decide if they want the banks to fail or the dollar to collapse. It’s up to them.
Either way, we’ve topped out. If stocks go up and the dollar breaks the neck, you lose. If stocks go down, you lose.
Nice situation.
[I heard the same tune in 1980. Heard it again in 1991. You can sing it to the same tune of "Earth in the Lurch." The economic class tin foil hat is made in the same mold of climate change, overpopulation and running out of resources. OL]
May 21st, 2009 at 5:24 am
Oak Leaf:
I see you are now into predicting the future of the markets. I wish you luck. While you’re at it you may want to include this small tidbit
“World markets hit by Fed’s US growth warning”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/World-markets-hit-by-Feds-US-apf-15313680.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
Then again, perhaps you should ignore it.
Ken
Dallas
May 21st, 2009 at 6:20 am
What will be the ToJ penny stock of the day?
I can scarcely wait to find out….
So far my portfolio consists of:
Red Lobster
Snapple
Dr. Pepper
JC Penney
Dillard’s
Home Depot
I’ll be making a fortune as this economic recovery roars forward!
I sure hope the GOP gets on board so that they’ll get all the credit and stuff and will get re-elected.
May 21st, 2009 at 7:00 am
Oak Leaf,
I’d love for you to inform these folks about the “recovery”
I doubt they’ll be dining at Red Lobster this week…
May 23rd, 2009 at 3:28 pm
Anyone who believes we have seen the DOW low of the Obamanazi regime is sadly misguided.